Russia and its “Special Operation” in Ukraine

[blandy]

56 minutes ago, tonyh29 said:

Gulstream IV belonging to the Swedish Airforce , flying at 43,000 ft in ever decreasing loops around the Belarus / Ukraine border 

they can be adapted for cargo but don't know about surveillance use 

It'll be similar to Sentinel, I would guess - the Aussies and Israelis have versions of Gulfstream for sigint/AEW/sensors. Battlefield recce and intelligence gathering would be my further guess as to what it's doing. 

[magnkarl]

5 minutes ago, bickster said:

inf.news

That pretty much gives Ukraine a clear arc from Odessa to the edge of Crimea and into Romanian waters

9 capital ships to go..

[bickster]

Just now, magnkarl said:

9 capital ships to go..

It was bollocks unfortunately

[BleedClaretAndBlue]

Fires breaking out in Russia  

[Genie]

5 minutes ago, BleedClaretAndBlue said:

Fires breaking out in Russia  

Same type of fires that sank the ship is my guess. 

[avfc1982am]

Patterns of sabotage around Russia. Good. 

[Awol]

4 minutes ago, avfc1982am said:

Patterns of sabotage around Russia. Good. 

Some careful thought going into the target selection, and geography is seemingly no object either - the Dmitrievsky chemical plant is about 1000 Kms from Ukraine. 

Problem is a first language Russian speaking Ukrainian looks, sounds, and can pass himself off as being a Russian citizen. Quite the problem for internal security forces. 

[bickster]

3 minutes ago, Awol said:

Some careful thought going into the target selection, and geography is seemingly no object either - the Dmitrievsky chemical plant is about 1000 Kms from Ukraine. 

Problem is a first language Russian speaking Ukrainian looks, sounds, and can pass himself off as being a Russian citizen. Quite the problem for internal security forces. 

There's also the the Russians fighting on Ukraine's side who are actively trying to recruit Russians for exactly this type of operation

[magnkarl]

36 minutes ago, bickster said:

There's also the the Russians fighting on Ukraine's side who are actively trying to recruit Russians for exactly this type of operation

And then you add all the areas which have been horribly repressed by Russia for years. Dagestan, Chechnya, Karelia, Sakhalin, many of the well educated of the big cities etc. There’s plenty of people with a gear to grind internally.

[avfc1982am]

 

From 2 days ago. Russian dead everywhere. 

[bannedfromHandV]

I wonder if this could end up backfiring so spectacularly that Russia itself ends up being broken up into separatist regions. I don’t know enough about Russia from an internal geopolitical perspective but it’s so vast that there must be regional cultural differences.

 

[magnkarl]

32 minutes ago, bannedfromHandV said:

I wonder if this could end up backfiring so spectacularly that Russia itself ends up being broken up into separatist regions. I don’t know enough about Russia from an internal geopolitical perspective but it’s so vast that there must be regional cultural differences.

 

There’s many areas that have tried, Chechnya, Dagestan, Karelia, several eastern Russian groups. There’s also areas that were taken from countries in I.e the winter war, Transnistria, South Ossetia, Kaliningrad, Nikel and so forth.

[Jareth]

Would

 

[Jareth]

FFS Russia have a vision of what a white world should look like - there would be no room for a Lizzo or even a Lionel Ritchie - they are purely about being white and Russian. What a dangerous bunch, who I don't think we can easily influence. They are an alternative reality to the Nazis - always have been.

[Awol]

13 hours ago, magnkarl said:

In my humble opinion the Russian command has something like 1-2 months left in the tank before attrition rates would make every offensive BTG ineffective. It would be good for UA's chances if Azovstaal can hold out for another 3 weeks, so that Putin can't use Mariupol as some sort of victory when the V day parade happens in the Red Square on May 9th.

Russia's tactics have changed drastically, they seem incapable of performing offensive maneuvers (lack of effective BTG's, armour, coordination?), and they're now trying to beat probably the most well defended defensive line in Europe, with state of the art blast shelters, ditches, tunnels, bunkers and so on. I just hope that UA's special forces with Switchblades can cripple Russia's supply lines yet again so that life is living hell for the average Russian infantryman.

I agree the Russians are on a clock absent full national mobilisation, and the main issue with their BTG structure is insufficient infantry. But that’s good because it hurts them every time they try to go forward, so **** ‘em.

I’m increasingly confident that the US has now politically committed to victory, and the unbelievably brave and competent Ukrainians will become a delivery mechanism for the output of western military industrial productive capacity. 

The bottom line strategically is that Russia under Putin has demonstrated it isn’t a neighbour Europe can live with. The risk involved with defeating him is something we have to accept. We are taking far less risk than the Ukrainians (though they have little choice unless they want to surrender to genocide) but we can’t get away with no risk, either. That means emptying our warehouses of war stocks and putting weapons in the hands of Ukrainians desperate to destroy our common fascist enemy.

[Jareth]

4 minutes ago, Awol said:

I’m increasingly confident that the US has now politically committed to victory, and the unbelievably brave and competent Ukrainians will become a delivery mechanism for the output of western military industrial productive capacity. 

Ukraine = military outpost of the free world - if, hopefully, we see a slow cold war on the donbas border - then we see Ukraine pulling itself back together - and Ukraine gathering itself and being the most equipped military known to man. 

[Awol]

22 minutes ago, Jareth said:

Ukraine = military outpost of the free world - if, hopefully, we see a slow cold war on the donbas border - then we see Ukraine pulling itself back together - and Ukraine gathering itself and being the most equipped military known to man. 

First part yes, but hoping we can skip the Cold War part as Ukraine shatters the mass of Russia’s conventional army. The only reason that doesn’t happen is a lack of resolve on our part and/or the failure of logistic lines of communication. 

[magnkarl]

6 hours ago, Awol said:

First part yes, but hoping we can skip the Cold War part as Ukraine shatters the mass of Russia’s conventional army. The only reason that doesn’t happen is a lack of resolve on our part and/or the failure of logistic lines of communication. 

There are signs that at least some Russians are seeing past the state run media, sabotaging, ruining rail networks, lighting fires and so forth. The same is happening at a much larger scale in Belarus. Whoever the opposition will be should soon have a bigger chance to rebel than what they've had for 20 years as Putin loses his most complicit generals, Kadyrovites and military police in Ukraine.

That idiotic press conference from Putin yesterday shows that he's very aware of the crimes committed by his men as he mentioned that the soldiers in Mariupol are to be treated after international law if they surrender, he's essentially already warming up for the trial. Every week Ukraine holds out the worse this will get for Putin's dogs.

[sidcow]

Not heard anything about anti war protests in Russia lately, assume these have been completely beaten down. Don't see any chance of a people's revolution. 

[bickster]

18 minutes ago, sidcow said:

Don't see any chance of a people's revolution.

This was always the least likely scenario

Any people's revolution would require the help of the military and the police