Russia and its “Special Operation” in Ukraine

[KentVillan]

10 minutes ago, ciggiesnbeer said:

We in the west were far too kind at the end of the soviet union. We should never make that mistake again.
 

We weren’t, though. We are partly responsible for how things have turned out in Russia… the kleptocracy, the oligarchs, Putin, the oil & gas revenues.

What could we have done that was “tougher”? What we should have done is be more involved in the reform process, give them more incentives to restructure in a different direction. Instead we cashed in and hoped that free markets would solve everything.

[Awol]

15 minutes ago, ciggiesnbeer said:

We in the west were far too kind at the end of the soviet union. We should never make that mistake again.

Have to disagree mate. I hope instead MI6 and CIA have feelers out to Russia’s military leadership. We should make clear the following points:

1) that Putin and the securocrats around him from the Int’ services have to go before Russia receives any sanctions relief at all, and we will keep increasing until then. 

2) that the west is totally committed to supplying Ukraine with the means to liberate its entire territory.

3) that the west is prepared to reach a new security arrangement with a post-Putin, military led regime in Moscow. That will allow for conditions-based relaxation of sanctions over time. 

Putin wanted a friendly buffer between himself and the west. We should turn his state into a friendly buffer between the European people’s and China.

[Awol]

7 minutes ago, KentVillan said:

We weren’t, though. We are partly responsible for how things have turned out in Russia… the kleptocracy, the oligarchs, Putin, the oil & gas revenues.

What could we have done that was “tougher”? What we should have done is be more involved in the reform process, give them more incentives to restructure in a different direction. Instead we cashed in and hoped that free markets would solve everything.

 

[ciggiesnbeer]

15 minutes ago, LondonLax said:

Wasn’t that a bit like the approach we took with Germany after WW1?

Not really. We made Germany pay reparations. Which is a good idea here as well. The mistake with post WW1 Germany was allowing it to be strong after and letting it rejoin the world economy. We should be harsher in Russia. Keep them poor and backward. Its not our concern how much they suffer. Its nothing compared to the death and misery they have caused in free countries.

We should stop trying to help and focus more on punishing. The carrot and stick does nothing. So just use the stick and keep the carrot.

[ciggiesnbeer]

23 minutes ago, KentVillan said:

We weren’t, though. We are partly responsible for how things have turned out in Russia… the kleptocracy, the oligarchs, Putin, the oil & gas revenues.

What could we have done that was “tougher”? What we should have done is be more involved in the reform process, give them more incentives to restructure in a different direction. Instead we cashed in and hoped that free markets would solve everything.

Refused them entry to the world economic investment and political institutions unless it was linked to a clear, verifiable and transparent liberal democracy in Russia.

Instead we turned a blind eye to the new totalitarianism and hoped it would go away because at least it wasn't as bad as the soviet union. That was a mistake. 


 

Edited April 15, 2022 by ciggiesnbeer

[ciggiesnbeer]

27 minutes ago, Awol said:

Have to disagree mate. I hope instead MI6 and CIA have feelers out to Russia’s military leadership. We should make clear the following points:

1) that Putin and the securocrats around him from the Int’ services have to go before Russia receives any sanctions relief at all, and we will keep increasing until then. 

2) that the west is totally committed to supplying Ukraine with the means to liberate its entire territory.

3) that the west is prepared to reach a new security arrangement with a post-Putin, military led regime in Moscow. That will allow for conditions-based relaxation of sanctions over time. 

Putin wanted a friendly buffer between himself and the west. We should turn his state into a friendly buffer between the European people’s and China.

Agree with this. But I am also fine with Russia becoming Chinas puppet state.

China is also an awful totalitarian regime but they are far less aggressive externally than Russia.

We in the free world don't need to look for new friends. We have a line out the door of countries who want to be part of the liberal democracies. 

If Russia wants to woo us then we should ask what they are going to do for us not the other way around.

Edited April 15, 2022 by ciggiesnbeer

[KentVillan]

 

 Turn the volume up

[Davkaus]

11 minutes ago, ciggiesnbeer said:

Not really. We made Germany pay reparations. Which is a good idea here as well. The mistake with post WW1 Germany was allowing it to be strong after and letting it rejoin the world economy. We should be harsher in Russia. Keep them poor and backward. Its not our concern how much they suffer. Its nothing compared to the death and misery they have caused in free countries.

We should stop trying to help and focus more on punishing. The carrot and stick does nothing. So just use the stick and keep the carrot.

I'm not particularly well-read on international diplomacy and military history, but it seems to me that Japan is a pretty good case study of welcoming a previously hostile nation back into the fold to the benefit of all.

We can cut Russia off, but they'll still have their nukes, and it seems to me we'll do nothing but push them to trade more with other countries, while fostering even greater resentment for the west; and if we've learned anything from our jollies in the middle-east, it's that creating hostile countries doesn't work great for us, even if they lack conventional means to oppose us. A handful of lunatics with explosives is all it takes to paralyse us. 

[Awol]

Just now, ciggiesnbeer said:

Agree with this. But I am also fine with Russia becoming Chinas puppet state.

China is also an awful totalitarian regime but they are far less aggressive externally than Russia.

More subtle (just) but not less aggressive, more ambitious, far more capable, and a greater challenge to the global system. Dissolving the growing Russia-China strategic relationship should be the west’s primary goal in any post-war reconciliation with Russia.

 

[LondonLax]

The ruskies seem a bit miffed about losing their boat.

 

 

[ciggiesnbeer]

Good chat!

btw this is interesting. Turns out the Russian "hi tech" drone has nothing made in Russia. Its optics are a regular Canon camera glued into the drone. Which is a fine cheap solution but Russia cant make them themselves.
 

 

[Davkaus]

1 minute ago, LondonLax said:

The ruskies seem a bit miffed about losing their boat.

 

 

Ukraine can't be blamed for a simple fire 

[KentVillan]

One thing I do worry about is the tendency to want to humiliate Russia.

Yes, it's great that everything is going wrong for Russia, but this could be the prelude to even more hardline figures on the Russian side pushing for increasingly aggressive actions, not just in Ukraine but across the region.

I don't know what the solution is... rolling over for Russia was never an option, and they've brought this on themselves. But just thinking realistically for a moment, these national humiliations often fuel paranoid, resentful, violent politics.

I'm very worried about the direction this is going to take over the next 10-20 years, even if this ends up being contained in the short term.

[foreveryoung]

Didn't realise Ukraine used to have around 800 Nukes. Unfortunately they agreed to dismantled and get rid of them in an agreement to become an independent state in the Yeltsin era.

[bickster]

56 minutes ago, KentVillan said:

to even more hardline figures on the Russian side pushing for increasingly aggressive actions, not just in Ukraine but across the region

This might seem flipant but what are they going to push with? Ladas?

If this carries on as it currently is, they'll have very little left to fight with and no way of replacing it.

Right now, they can't make very much at all in the way of military hardware

They are currently involved in a special operation to reduce their armed forces capability to that of a South American dictatorship and they occupy the largest country in the world with the largest land border to protect and the most amount of occupied territories to suppress.

What they are currently doing defies any logic at all, they've gone all in, shirt an all on a jack high hand

[KentVillan]

3 minutes ago, bickster said:

This might seem flipant but what are they going to push with? Ladas?

Nukes?

[HolteExile]

3 hours ago, foreveryoung said:

Didn't realise Ukraine used to have around 800 Nukes. Unfortunately they agreed to dismantled and get rid of them in an agreement to become an independent state in the Yeltsin era.

Not only did they 'agree' to get rid of them, the western powers pushed them to do so - on the proviso they would guarantee Ukraine's borders and claims to statehood. 

 

[Jareth]

5 hours ago, KentVillan said:

One thing I do worry about is the tendency to want to humiliate Russia.

Yes, it's great that everything is going wrong for Russia, but this could be the prelude to even more hardline figures on the Russian side pushing for increasingly aggressive actions, not just in Ukraine but across the region.

Absolutely, 100%, feck them - their aggression is beyond out of order - we will have to deal with these words removed whatever happens, we will have to deal with their aggression - there is no other choice. Meeting them on the battlefield with our weapons but Ukrainian people is our only current option. If they want to step it up, then we bloody will, and the words removed will lose. I am so **** off with the nuclear threat, it is only that, a threat, these bastards need to feel the losses that war brings and we need it to continue. It is such a shit situation for Ukraine, but now Nato will have a massive Russian border via Finland - entirely their fault.

[Jareth]

Not that it matters posting here - but Germany must stop the gas and move to a war footing - it is far too convienient to say oh well, this is the way - cowardly 

[maqroll]

900 bodies discovered near Kyiv. These are WW2 numbers, this is an historic war.