Russia and its “Special Operation” in Ukraine

[Mandy Lifeboats]

19 minutes ago, KentVillan said:

You think he'll get off war crimes on a loophole?

I don't think he's getting done for war crimes, because I don't think he's getting arrested. But if he does somehow get arrested and tried for war crimes, he's 100% guilty. Saying he was on the toilet reading a book while an old lady in Bucha got raped isn't really going to fly as an alibi.

No. Its not a loophole.  During the Nuremberg trials a lot of effort went into proving that those in charge knew what was happening and in some way consented to it. Although these crimes are terrible you need to show that its an official policy or instruction. I don't think Putin is stupid enough.  

[veloman]

There was a Documentary on Sky the other day about WW2  - Operation Barbarosa (sp). It seemed to indicate that the Russians didn't defend the Ukraine area as vigorously as other areas where the Nazis had invaded; so perhaps antipathy to the Ukraine even back then. Having never studied that era, does anyone know if that was correct ?

[KentVillan]

4 minutes ago, Mandy Lifeboats said:

No. Its not a loophole.  During the Nuremberg trials a lot of effort went into proving that those in charge knew what was happening and in some way consented to it. Although these crimes are terrible you need to show that its an official policy or instruction. I don't think Putin is stupid enough.  

I honestly don't think Putin is paying any attention to his war crime paper trail, because he has no intention of ever appearing in front of that court. If he's in that court having to defend himself, he's already lost, and will likely go the way of Milosevic.

But it doesn't need to be in writing. If there's widespread eyewitness testimony (which there would be - since people would turn on each other in this scenario) that Putin was aware of war crimes, didn't attempt to prevent them, and even directly condoned / authorised them, then it doesn't matter whether he issued an official edict that explicitly authorised murder, rape and pillage of civilians.

The reality is I don't think it's ever getting to this point. This would only happen with a full-scale invasion of Russia by Nato. If Putin's own side depose him, he'll probably end up dead. I don't really see how the idea of Putin standing up in front of the ICC ever really happens.

[magnkarl]

2 hours ago, veloman said:

There was a Documentary on Sky the other day about WW2  - Operation Barbarosa (sp). It seemed to indicate that the Russians didn't defend the Ukraine area as vigorously as other areas where the Nazis had invaded; so perhaps antipathy to the Ukraine even back then. Having never studied that era, does anyone know if that was correct ?

The Ukrainian part of the Soviet army suffered the biggest encirclement in human history in Kyiv early and was pretty much wiped out 6 months into the operation. They were used recklessly and essentially not allowed to retreat from Kyiv by Stalin. 

You’re not the first person to connect Stalin and Russia’s hate for Ukraine with his disregard for Ukrainian troops. Just 10 years before this he’d pretty much killed 5-10 million Ukrainians in what the Ukrainians call Holodomor. Stalin would plunder Ukraines food resources to the point where people starved to death on an industrial scale.

Ukraine is everything Russia isn’t. Hard working, west leaning, proud of their culture, willing to stand up for themselves. They were the backbone on which the Soviet Union was built. 

Russia is like Pavlov’s dog. They’ve been tortured by their overlords for so long that no one gives a shit anymore. Pavlov would electrocute a poor dog one foot at a time, the dog would react and flinch in pain with 3 legs, and on the fourth leg it would give up, lay down and not react as there was no use. The Russian psyche is well and truly effed. 

Edited April 6, 2022 by magnkarl

[chrisp65]

So we have the UK and USA saying that perhaps Putin isn’t being informed how bad this is going for him.

Then we threaten him with being complicit in war crimes.

It feels like we might have already given him his defence.

An interesting academic debate.

[Davkaus]

27 minutes ago, KentVillan said:

I honestly don't think Putin is paying any attention to his war crime paper trail, because he has no intention of ever appearing in front of that court. If he's in that court having to defend himself, he's already lost, and will likely go the way of Milosevic.

But it doesn't need to be in writing. If there's widespread eyewitness testimony (which there would be - since people would turn on each other in this scenario) that Putin was aware of war crimes, didn't attempt to prevent them, and even directly condoned / authorised them, then it doesn't matter whether he issued an official edict that explicitly authorised murder, rape and pillage of civilians.

The reality is I don't think it's ever getting to this point. This would only happen with a full-scale invasion of Russia by Nato. If Putin's own side depose him, he'll probably end up dead. I don't really see how the idea of Putin standing up in front of the ICC ever really happens.

I agree with you, it's a moot point, the only way he leaves power is if he falls due to internal struggle, in which case, he knows too much to hand over to a foreign court. He'll die in power, or very shortly after being deposed. 

He won't be captured by NATO for the same reason we won't put boots on the ground in Ukraine. 

[7392craig]

34 minutes ago, veloman said:

There was a Documentary on Sky the other day about WW2  - Operation Barbarosa (sp). It seemed to indicate that the Russians didn't defend the Ukraine area as vigorously as other areas where the Nazis had invaded; so perhaps antipathy to the Ukraine even back then. Having never studied that era, does anyone know if that was correct ?

The Gulag archipelago is an amazing book and suggests that was the case to some degree. But I’m no historian so I’m not sure how deep anything like that would be.

[KentVillan]

4 minutes ago, chrisp65 said:

So we have the UK and USA saying that perhaps Putin isn’t being informed how bad this is going for him.

Then we threaten him with being complicit in war crimes.

It feels like we might have already given him his defence.

An interesting academic debate.

The two aren't mutually exclusive though. He can be getting bad information about progress in specific battlegrounds, but still be authorising war crimes

[chrisp65]

Just now, KentVillan said:

The two aren't mutually exclusive though. He can be getting bad information about progress in specific battlegrounds, but still be authorising war crimes

Not mutually exclusive, no. But hardly convenient.

Not that I see the little fella ever sitting in a cage in a court room. 

Poisoning would be more suitable, one of those slow doses the Russians are good at, so you know you’re dying. Three days of hope whilst everything slowly painfully fails.

[sidcow]

17 minutes ago, chrisp65 said:

So we have the UK and USA saying that perhaps Putin isn’t being informed how bad this is going for him.

Then we threaten him with being complicit in war crimes.

It feels like we might have already given him his defence.

An interesting academic debate.

Not sure about that.  The killings are orders travelling from the top down (one would think), the poor progress is lack of information flowing back up.  The 2 things can be mutually exclusive.

As long as they can prove that the soldiers were carrying our orders from on high he's toast.

[sidcow]

32 minutes ago, KentVillan said:

The two aren't mutually exclusive though. He can be getting bad information about progress in specific battlegrounds, but still be authorising war crimes

 

Just now, sidcow said:

Not sure about that.  The killings are orders travelling from the top down (one would think), the poor progress is lack of information flowing back up.  The 2 things can be mutually exclusive.

As long as they can prove that the soldiers were carrying our orders from on high he's toast.

 

[Genie]

39 minutes ago, chrisp65 said:

So we have the UK and USA saying that perhaps Putin isn’t being informed how bad this is going for him.

Then we threaten him with being complicit in war crimes.

It feels like we might have already given him his defence.

An interesting academic debate.

You’d think they would just give him a call and explain to him that it doesn’t look great so at the very least they know he’s aware of what’s happening.

[sidcow]

1 minute ago, Genie said:

You’d think they would just give him a call and explain to him that it doesn’t look great so at the very least they know he’s aware of what’s happening.

I'm sure Macron would have told him that murder of Civilians has to stop. I think India who have his ear have made a public statement about it now.

There is no way he doesn't know and if the murders continue then he has obviously not done anything to make them stop.  He is after all more than any European leader the absolute ruler who's word is law.

[Awol]

10 minutes ago, sidcow said:

I'm sure Macron would have told him that murder of Civilians has to stop. I think India who have his ear have made a public statement about it now.

There is no way he doesn't know and if the murders continue then he has obviously not done anything to make them stop.  He is after all more than any European leader the absolute ruler who's word is law.

US and UK said at the very beginning that Russia had lists of people to be detained in every Ukrainian town, what’s happening was meticulously planned. What we got wrong (I think) was assuming the mobile crematoriums were to conceal the deaths of his soldiers, not to dispose of his civilian victims’ bodies. 

The so-called filtration camps in Russia that kidnapped Ukrainians are being processed through is yet more evidence demonstrating genocidal intent - those who survive are being dispersed to labour in factories as the spoils of war. 

Agree with the posters saying Putin will never face trial, the only way he leaves the Kremlin is in a box. Unfortunately, now the Russian army is so thoroughly implicated in war crimes the generals have less incentive to bump him off. 

[magnkarl]

27 minutes ago, sidcow said:

I'm sure Macron would have told him that murder of Civilians has to stop. I think India who have his ear have made a public statement about it now.

There is no way he doesn't know and if the murders continue then he has obviously not done anything to make them stop.  He is after all more than any European leader the absolute ruler who's word is law.

Murdering civilians is the Russian way. One needs only look at Grozny, Syria and Russia backed Serbia in previous conflicts to figure out their MO. They never gave a rats arse about international law.

Edited April 6, 2022 by magnkarl

[Genie]

The “people aren’t telling Putin how bad it’s going” was in relation to the war in general, amount of tanks, trucks, helicopters etc that are being destroyed as well as soldiers being killed.

It may also be true of the killing of innocent Ukrainians but  the latter does seem more likely to be ordered by the top.

[Genie]

New sanctions by the US and EU target Putin’s 2 daughters and also FM Lavrov…. begs the question, why were they not subject to sanctions already??

They’ve had a good few weeks now to financially prepare for the inevitable sanctions.

[blandy]

1 hour ago, chrisp65 said:

So we have the UK and USA saying that perhaps Putin isn’t being informed how bad this is going for him.

Then we threaten him with being complicit in war crimes.

It feels like we might have already given him his defence.

An interesting academic debate.

Not really. The two things aren't mutually exclusive.

Putin (after being told it will all go swimmingly) gives the order to invade.

Invading goes very badly indeed.

People don't want to tell Putin it's gone badly.

Time goes by...Putin asks "why is it taking so long, you told me it would be super quick and easy.."

Putin fires multiple Army and intelligence people, finds out what's the situation and orders a new plan - pulverise the south east part and everyone in it, then claim it back as liberated.

or in even shorter terms - war crimes ordered because it went badly and he found out.

[ender4]

21 minutes ago, Genie said:

New sanctions by the US and EU target Putin’s 2 daughters and also FM Lavrov…. begs the question, why were they not subject to sanctions already??

They’ve had a good few weeks now to financially prepare for the inevitable sanctions.

Doesn't really matter until we stop buying Russian gas & oil.  The EU currently spend around $1 billion per DAY on Russian fossil fuels, they've given Russia $42 billion since the Ukraine war started.

[bickster]