Awol Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 1 minute ago, HanoiVillan said: no, change of plan again, here it is in fact happening: If there’s a hard stop on the supply of energy to Europe from Russia then that market will never come back. Either way France and Germany are still saying no, so we’ll see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 11 minutes ago, Awol said: If there’s a hard stop on the supply of energy to Europe from Russia then that market will never come back. Either way France and Germany are still saying no, so we’ll see what happens. Finance people seem to be of the opinion that it's a dumb and counter-productive move. See eg the replies to this tweet: . . . but I've got to be honest, I'm at the edges of my understanding on this topic, so 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blandy Posted March 31, 2022 Moderator Share Posted March 31, 2022 28 minutes ago, Awol said: If there’s a hard stop on the supply of energy to Europe from Russia then that market will never come back. I mean I don't know, but I think that's (the market going away) happening anyway as a result of all this war. I'm pretty sure I posted as much before it started. I accept that Russia has loads of the stuff, and the world isn't going to stop burning gas any time soon, but the appetite from Western Europe's leaders and populace for feeding money to Putin has gone, and if/when the war is over, we'll be back to the actions needed to deal with climate change, on top of energy security and on top of sanctions. It's like we've had a long period before about 2020 where the world was mostly the same, and then there's decades worth of "events" happened in the past couple of years or so where the world has changed fundamentally - there's been a judder and there's going to ripples of re-alignment for the next however many years before it settles down again. It's another example (in my mind) of Putin misreading the longer term consequences, while going for a shorter term "win". 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
foreveryoung Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 So Putin is threatening to turn the gas off. Poor Germany will have to ration gas if he isn't blagging it. Personally I think he is, surely there is no way he could financially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted March 31, 2022 Moderator Share Posted March 31, 2022 7 minutes ago, foreveryoung said: So Putin is threatening to turn the gas off. Poor Germany will have to ration gas if he isn't blagging it. Personally I think he is, surely there is no way he could financially. I don't think Putin was very good at maths, he used to bully a clever kid to do his maths for him 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 The amount of people in Russia losing faith Putin must be rapidly growing by the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AVFC_Hitz Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 The Soviet Army monument has had a facelift in recent weeks. This is a very devisive monument ever since the Russians demanded the Bulgarian state pay for 24hr surveillance due to vandalism. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjmooney Posted March 31, 2022 VT Supporter Share Posted March 31, 2022 Just now, AVFC_Hitz said: The Soviet Army monument has had a facelift in recent weeks. This is a very devisive monument ever since the Russians demanded the Bulgarian state pay for 24hr surveillance due to vandalism. Is this in Sofia? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AVFC_Hitz Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 Just now, mjmooney said: Is this in Sofia? Yes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted March 31, 2022 Moderator Share Posted March 31, 2022 13 minutes ago, Genie said: The amount of people in Russia losing faith Putin must be rapidly growing by the day. Impossible to tell but there are few signs of mass discontent yet. It won't be the people that get rid of him anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post AVFC_Hitz Posted March 31, 2022 Popular Post Share Posted March 31, 2022 12 minutes ago, mjmooney said: Is this in Sofia? Over the years .. 5 1 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 I wonder if Russian gas is one of those things that they can’t really stop pumping if sales drop right off. They’ll have heated outdoor stadiums and giving it away free to the public. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
foreveryoung Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 Good documentary on last night about Putin. Showed the Moscow theater massacre. That was a bit of a f*** up too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Awol Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 3 hours ago, blandy said: It's like we've had a long period before about 2020 where the world was mostly the same, and then there's decades worth of "events" happened in the past couple of years or so where the world has changed fundamentally - there's been a judder and there's going to ripples of re-alignment for the next however many years before it settles down again. It's another example (in my mind) of Putin misreading the longer term consequences, while going for a shorter term "win". I think that’s exactly right. The post-Cold War holiday from history is over, and fwiw I think a new stability is some way away. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Awol Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 Fair play to France. Our system is geared to prevent allocating individual responsibility when things go to s***. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sidcow Posted March 31, 2022 VT Supporter Share Posted March 31, 2022 20 minutes ago, Awol said: Fair play to France. Our system is geared to prevent allocating individual responsibility when things go to s***. Wow. That's a bit unfair. Putin kept saying he wasn't going to invade after all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted March 31, 2022 Moderator Share Posted March 31, 2022 1 minute ago, sidcow said: Wow. That's a bit unfair. Putin kept saying he wasn't going to invade after all. To be fair to Mr French Intelligence, what he actually said was that Putin invading Ukraine would have a monstrous cost and he had better options open to him to bring down Zelensky. He wasn’t actually wrong In that 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KentVillan Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 (edited) 18 minutes ago, bickster said: To be fair to Mr French Intelligence, what he actually said was that Putin invading Ukraine would have a monstrous cost and he had better options open to him to bring down Zelensky. He wasn’t actually wrong In that Yep, which is what makes US intelligence's assessment so impressive. It was a crazy move from Putin, but they must have successfully worked out his thinking and not been clouded by their own strategic judgments of what made sense. One day some very interesting books will be written about how this all played out behind the scenes. Edited March 31, 2022 by KentVillan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Awol Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 For those following the more granular details it’s now confirmed that Russia has abandoned the Hostomel airfield near Kyiv (source of dramatic air assault videos on first day of the war & served as a Forward Operating Base since it’s capture). Lots of Russian Paras died to take and hold that place, and this does indicate a genuine retreat from their attempt to take Kyiv - at least in this phase of the war. The psychological victory for Ukraine is massive, getting Russia out of Chernobyl without deliberately causing a nuclear disaster would be a victory for everyone. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
astondalston Posted March 31, 2022 VT Supporter Share Posted March 31, 2022 3 hours ago, Genie said: I wonder if Russian gas is one of those things that they can’t really stop pumping if sales drop right off. They’ll have heated outdoor stadiums and giving it away free to the public. You need storage facilities if you can’t send it to customers. Storage Russia hasn’t really got (Russia has a gas problem). Temporarily closing wells also brings problems (Shutting down wells is risky) Calling their bluff is probably the correct move. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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