bickster Posted March 30, 2022 Moderator Share Posted March 30, 2022 There was some debate a few days ago about what Russian speakers living in Ukraine thought of Russia now 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 (edited) 12 minutes ago, chrisp65 said: Hey, look, if AmneziaVPN is the tipping point that causes positive regime change in Russia, I’d be quite pleased. Just not convinced yet. I’m not against it, I’m not pro Putin, I’m not an eternal pessimist. But I’d rather have the news ‘straight’ and know we have a long expensive Hot and Cold War ahead of us that we need to win. Rather than be told I’ll be home for Christmas. I’m just saying given they are a relatively advanced country whose leadership like to block them off from external news sources a VPN is probably a more normal and regular application to use than say here or Europe. I have no data to back that up though, but it seems logical. They also have WhatsApp which I would also assume is awash with videos and news that they Russian government don’t really want them to see but are powerless to stop. Edit: bit of data Quote As VPN services allow users to bypass geo-blocking and get around internet restrictions, it's no surprise that VPN usage in Russia has continued to soar as a result of the country's invasion of neighboring Ukraine. According to a new blog post from Atlas VPN, the latest wave of VPN installs in the country began on March 11 after the Russian communication agency Roskomnadzorannounced that it would ban Instagram. Then just a few days later on March 14, VPN installs in Russia reached an all-time high, surging by 11,253 percent beyond their normal level. Tech Radar Edited March 30, 2022 by Genie 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisp65 Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 Just now, Genie said: I’m just saying given they are a relatively advanced country whose leadership like to block them off from external news sources a VPN is probably a more normal and regular application to use than say here or Europe. I have no data to back that up though, but it seems logical. They also have WhatsApp which I would also assume is awash with videos and news that they Russian government don’t really want them to see but are powerless to stop. I don’t doubt for a second there is a tech savvy youth that are politically aware and sourcing better news and information. But we’ve had a few arguments put to us. Firstly, Russia is in trouble as its an ageing shrinking population. Secondly, people will see the truth and print it out and distribute it. Thirdly, in a police state where life is cheap and it’s against the law to use the word ‘war’, this will lead to positive regime change. Absolutely not saying this is impossible. It’s just not the most likely outcome, for me, as an armchair amateur on Russian revolutions. It would certainly suggest now is not a good time to suspend exports of printer ink to Russia. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jareth Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 24 minutes ago, bickster said: There was some debate a few days ago about what Russian speakers living in Ukraine thought of Russia now There’s a father ted episode in this 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amsterdam_Neil_D Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 (edited) Russia might turn the gas off to the EU tomorrow. They cannot be paid in Rubbles as they have requested as it is not a recognized currency for this sort of transaction and the contract specifies one of, Dollars / Euro / Sterling. It earns them 400-500 million dollars a day, I don't think they can turn it off for this reason + if they turn it off the Germany for example is forced to stop using them forever straight away. Apart from all that Russia is playing a blinder the silly words removed. Edited March 30, 2022 by Amsterdam_Neil_D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr_Dogg Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 (edited) 5 minutes ago, Amsterdam_Neil_D said: Russia might turn the gas off to the EU tomorrow. They cannot be paid in Rubbles as they have requested as it is not a recognized currency for this sort of transaction and the contract specifies one of, Dollars / Euro / Sterling. It earns them 400-500 billion dollars a day, I don't think they can turn it off for this reason + if they turn it off the Germany for example is forced to stop using them forever straight away. Apart from all that Russia is playing a blinder the silly words removed. Million you mean?! Edited March 30, 2022 by Mr_Dogg 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amsterdam_Neil_D Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 1 minute ago, Mr_Dogg said: Million you mean?! Yes, thanks. It is millions. But still a lot of dollar a day. I mean wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr_Dogg Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 1 minute ago, Amsterdam_Neil_D said: Yes, thanks. It is millions. But still a lot of dollar a day. I mean wow. If it's billions we're in more trouble than we think! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magnkarl Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 (edited) 2 hours ago, chrisp65 said: I don’t doubt for a second there is a tech savvy youth that are politically aware and sourcing better news and information. But we’ve had a few arguments put to us. Firstly, Russia is in trouble as its an ageing shrinking population. Secondly, people will see the truth and print it out and distribute it. Thirdly, in a police state where life is cheap and it’s against the law to use the word ‘war’, this will lead to positive regime change. Absolutely not saying this is impossible. It’s just not the most likely outcome, for me, as an armchair amateur on Russian revolutions. It would certainly suggest now is not a good time to suspend exports of printer ink to Russia. It's not wild speculation that Russia is facing a massive demographic crisis. It's a trend that's been going strong since the end of the USSR. Russia's Demographic 'Crisis' How Real Is It? Quote The decline in fertility is contributing to a rapid aging of the Russian population. Between 1959 and 1990, the number of persons aged 60 and over doubled. As a result, at the beginning of the 1990s, the proportion of the population aged 60 or over reached 16 percent. This figure will reach 20 percent by 2015. Perhaps the only genuine crisis aspect of current Russian demographic trends appears in increased rates of mortality, which have been especially dramatic among working-age men. In 1992, there was a sharp increase in deaths from nonnatural causes. By 1994, mortality rates for males between ages 15 and 64 were about twice as high as they had been in 1986 (Figure 4). The current economic crisis significantly limits the Russian government's ability to deal with demographic trends through policy intervention. In particular, the problems of the elderly will be difficult to manage. The retired population is growing, while the financial resources the state devotes to the elderly dwindle. With the declining real value of pensions and the rising costs of health care, the elderly are among the most economically disadvantaged and vulnerable social groups in Russia. Russia Doesn’t Have the Demographics for War Quote As Russia spent much of 2021 amassing troops on its Ukrainian border, an important headline almost escaped notice. While Russian President Vladimir Putin threatened Ukraine, Russia suffered its largest natural population decline since World War II, losing 997,000 people in the yearlong period between October 2020 and September 2021. Although coronavirus casualties in Russia were severe—and probably highly underreported—this wasn’t a one-time anomaly. Instead, it was the opening shot of a longer-term trend that will manifest in earnest over the next decade. Russia is about to enter a prolonged and painful period of demographic decline at home—complicating its expansionist ambitions abroad. Edited March 30, 2022 by magnkarl 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amsterdam_Neil_D Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 10 minutes ago, Mr_Dogg said: If it's billions we're in more trouble than we think! Not if its rubbles 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 8 minutes ago, magnkarl said: It's not wild speculation that Russia is facing a massive demographic crisis. It's a trend that's been going strong since the end of the USSR. Russia's Demographic 'Crisis' How Real Is It? Russia Doesn’t Have the Demographics for War Russia could do with a load of refugees of working age… it all makes sense now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisp65 Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 1 minute ago, magnkarl said: It's not wild speculation that Russia is facing a massive demographic crisis. It's a trend that's been going strong since the end of the USSR. Russia's Demographic 'Crisis' How Real Is It? Where has anyone said it’s wild speculation regarding a massive demographic crisis? That very comment is kind of my point. Russia will not run out of teenagers next week. It doesn’t all have to be at the extreme end of apocalyptic. @Genie appreciate the graphic, and I appreciate 700% is a big stat. But it doesn’t give the base figure, which is always a pain, because if there were previous 7 people using VPN’s, a 700% increase is less impressive than if the base figure was a million. But I get the point. I just don’t think they’ll be printing the stuff out and distributing it, as was the original suggestion. Hence my sarcasm about toner cartridges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisp65 Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 I’m not a paid sleeper agent, although I’ll always listen to serious offers. I’m just trying to keep a sense of proportion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magnkarl Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 2 minutes ago, chrisp65 said: Where has anyone said it’s wild speculation regarding a massive demographic crisis? That very comment is kind of my point. Russia will not run out of teenagers next week. It doesn’t all have to be at the extreme end of apocalyptic. @Genie appreciate the graphic, and I appreciate 700% is a big stat. But it doesn’t give the base figure, which is always a pain, because if there were previous 7 people using VPN’s, a 700% increase is less impressive than if the base figure was a million. But I get the point. I just don’t think they’ll be printing the stuff out and distributing it, as was the original suggestion. Hence my sarcasm about toner cartridges. Who said anything about apocalyptic? It's a trend that doesn't bode well for Russia, and probably a deciding factor in Putin trying to grab a couple of million people of fertile age from another country. This discussion seems like one where you push your skepticism of anything that gets posted, even if it has stats and graphics, sources and whatnot, with no sources to back your own skepticism up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 Where did the printing out comment come from? It wasn’t me. I found some stats on VPN usage. It has Russia at 3.3% (4.9m) of the population in 2020, and 8.6% (12.5m) in 2021. If it has exploded in 2022 by over 600% then over 70m of the 144m population could have access to the www via VPN’s now. Obviously, very loose figures but a significant proportion of the population will have access to independent news sources. Then there’s people with WhatsApp but not VPN will no doubt be sharing information. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magnkarl Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 (edited) 17 minutes ago, chrisp65 said: Where has anyone said it’s wild speculation regarding a massive demographic crisis? That very comment is kind of my point. Russia will not run out of teenagers next week. It doesn’t all have to be at the extreme end of apocalyptic. @Genie appreciate the graphic, and I appreciate 700% is a big stat. But it doesn’t give the base figure, which is always a pain, because if there were previous 7 people using VPN’s, a 700% increase is less impressive than if the base figure was a million. But I get the point. I just don’t think they’ll be printing the stuff out and distributing it, as was the original suggestion. Hence my sarcasm about toner cartridges. Here's some hard stats for you, rather than percentage: Quote The top five apps in Russia, which were downloaded a total of 43,000 times between Feb 18 - 24, were by contrast downloaded around 1.2 million times in the week that followed. The top five apps and their increased download performance were as follows: VPN Proxy Master – Super VPN (ALL Connected) - 490,000 - +2622% from 18,000 VPN – Super Unlimited Proxy - (Mobile Jump) - 292,000 - +2555% from 11,000 VPN – Super Unlimited proxy vpn - (VPN Proxy Secure Express) - 183,000 - +8218% from 2,200 Psiphon Pro – The Internet Freedom VPN - (Psiphon) - 118,000 - +2214% from 5,100 Turbo VPN – Secure VPN Proxy - (Innovative Connecting) - 95,000 - +1362% from 6,500 That is in one week. Allow for some users downloading on several OS's and swapping VPN's, and it's still a much bigger figure than most people think. Edited March 30, 2022 by magnkarl 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amsterdam_Neil_D Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 4 minutes ago, Genie said: Russia could do with a load of refugees of working age… it all makes sense now! I wonder how many educated Russians have left Russia in the last few months ? Lost money to Russia for 1 per over a lifetime (If they leave aged 25) is huge, especially if educated. If for example 200k leave then this is in the billions and billions I would guess. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisp65 Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 16 minutes ago, magnkarl said: Who said anything about apocalyptic? It's a trend that doesn't bode well for Russia, and probably a deciding factor in Putin trying to grab a couple of million people of fertile age from another country. This discussion seems like one where you push your skepticism of anything that gets posted, even if it has stats and graphics, sources and whatnot, with no sources to back your own skepticism up. I think it’s fair to point out 700% is less impressive if we don’t know the base figures. Just because we are rooting for one side, doesn’t mean we have to bin our critical faculties. I’m not pushing scepticism of all posts, just the ones where there is imminent Russian collapse. It’s been imminent for over a month now. The tweets of stolen Russian tanks are great. Their incompetence is great. Their statements on their new tactics are laughable. I’m loving all that. but they have a much higher pain threshold than they are being given credit for. That’s the entirety of my point. I don’t know what sources I can bring along to back that up? Other than all of the last 5 weeks played out in front of us and they still hold Ukrainian territory. Would a map work as a source? That tells me that on 29th March, Russia has more land than it did on the 23rd February. It’s expensive land, it looks from a Western perspective like they’ve lost more than they’ve gained. I hope it totally unravels and they lose it all. I think seeing this as a loss with the potential to trigger regime change, is a stretch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jareth Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 They just seem to be commiting a lot of own goals, in their attempt to salvage the effects of their initial wrong headed actions. Like Germany for example, had resisted huge pressure to cut off its gas supply from Russia - yet Russia go and push them into a situation where the German citizen is compelled to reduce gas use voluntarily - because Russia want it paid in roubles. Germany public will therefore willingly take the hit, whereas before the fear was they wouldn't accept it. Surely it is mistakes like this which will see Putin retired. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amsterdam_Neil_D Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 5 minutes ago, chrisp65 said: I hope it totally unravels and they lose it all. They might, they have no proper supply lines in place to cover all those troops properly in fuel, food or ammunition. If they did they would carry on I suppose. They need to go in for tea so too speak as they are all quite hungry now and they are taking the football with them as well the words removed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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