Russia and its “Special Operation” in Ukraine

[NoelVilla]

This movie is doing the rounds on Twitter. 

 

[nick76]

36 minutes ago, BleedClaretAndBlue said:

 

I’m not sure what is wrong with taking notes like that, whenever I do a presentation I always prepare answers/bullet points I want to make in reply to possible questions or talking points.  

It’s just good preparedness doesn’t matter who it is.  I know Trump got slammed for it and now Biden and I’m not sure why.  Plenty of reasons to have a go at Trump or Biden but I’m not sure being prepared is one.  

I get Biden might have spoken out of turn and his “handlers” are now preparing him but there are bigger issues to deal with than something like this imo.

[sidcow]

5 minutes ago, mjmooney said:

TBF, it's one we should have had several times in this country. 

Nah. It's not our fault the people we conquered didn't have a flag. They should have had a flag before we planted ours on their soil the silly sausages.

But Ukraine has a flag so Russia are bang out of order.

[magnkarl]

Russia saying they're pulling out of Chernihiv and Kyiv is a bit like Mourinho saying he didn't play for the win in the FA-cup final because it's not important to win in the FA-cup. 

'I didn't lose, I'm merely showing my discontent with the schedule!'

[chrisp65]

Given that Putin doesn’t really value human life greatly, and certainly wouldn’t value the grunts pushed to the front line, I think his ability to put up with deaths and casualties is far higher than some are hoping.

He’s also lost a lot of equipment, but they can get new stuff over time. The economy being in the bin, well its been there before and any country with wheat, timber and oil will be ok again eventually. The people have been cold and hungry the majority of their history. It’s been a badge of honour for many in the past.

So on the metrics of deaths, equipment, and money, perhaps Putin isn’t all that bothered. They are all cheap and temporary.

So, on the metric of does he hold more land now than at the start, and does his enemy have less land and less towns, less docks, less airports. He’s winning.

I can’t see any negotiated settlement being negotiated back to no loss of land or free will for Ukraine. So at a (perceived by us) great cost, Putin will come out of this with more land and more assets than before.

Unless of course, the West can persuade Ukraine to fight on and on and on in to the summer, back to the original lines on the map for total victory.

The winner may well be listed differently, depending on where you buy your history books.

[bickster]

This is a very interesting read. The scale of this victory is absolutely monumental. Russia is withdrawing from some areas in the spirit of being totally dicked by Ukraine and absolutely nothing to do with the Peace Talks

Quote

Ukraine update: The story of Russia's 4th Armored division, and Ukraine's biggest victory to date

Russia’s 4th Guards Tank Division (GTD) was considered one of it’s “elite” units, headquartered near Moscow.

The division's units participated in the First Chechen War of 1994-1996, and personnel took part in peacekeeping operations in South Ossetia during 1997, in Kosovo in 1998 to 2002, later participating in the Second Chechen War of 1999-2009. During this period, it was one of the Russian Army's "constant readiness" divisions, with at least 80% manpower and 100% equipment holdings at all times.

In other words, this unit was kept at maximum readiness, unlike other army units pilfered and plundered for dachas and vodka. It 2008, it had 12,000 soldiers, 320 tanks, armored personnel carriers, 130 howitzer artillery, and 12 GRAD rocket artillery. In 2012, Russia did away with the divisions as its main maneuver unit, replaced with Battalion Tactical Groups, in large part, because of the great grift opportunities they offered. (They have proven woefully inadequate for their task.) Still, for whatever reason, Russia rebuilt the division in 2015, outfitting it with 228 battle tanks, 300 armored personnel carriers, 90 artillery guns, and 19 MLRS GRAD rocket artillery. 

This was one of the best funded and equipped units in the entire Russian Army, with their latest generation armor. The structure of the division would theoretically render it more resistant to the kind of rampant grift that affected BTGs. This thing was fearful, designed to punch through enemy lines and wreak havoc in the enemy’s rear. And that’s exactly what 4 GTD tried to do just the first week of March. [...]

Ukrainian forces hacked away at the division, forcing its retreat back toward the direction it came. In those two days, the division lost around 50 of its tanks. It was easy to track because 4th GTD was the only unit in the entire Russian Army to have T80Us. And to add insult to Russia’s injury, most of these were abandoned, not destroyed. Of the 46 T-80Us in Oryx’s database of visually verified Russian equipment losses, 38 were captured, and only four seemed destroyed in combat. (The rest were abandoned and destroyed by locals.) [...]

Regardless, the division had lost around 50 of its tanks out of 228, so things got quiet for the 4th GTD. From all indications, they set up shop in Trostyanets, where their howitzer and rocket artillery could pummel Sumy. And so it was until this weekend, when Ukrainian forces swept into town, essentially wiping the division off the face of the map. [...]

The scope of 4th GTD’s destruction is so massive, the evisceration so complete, that you’d think Ukraine massed a considerable force to take it out. Yet no details have been forthcoming. Ukrainian General Staff doesn’t seem to be in any hurry to detail its successful strategies to Russian generals. Even in the video above, we only see small snippets of what had to have been a larger operation. Given the proliferation of drone footage of even small activities, we’ll no doubt get a clear picture of the battle after the war concludes. I’m certainly eager to learn how these scrappy Ukrainians pulled off a coup of this magnitude. [...]

Daily Kos

TL:DR - One of the Russians most elite units with the best men, newest tech, best armour has been  absoutely ruined and it's remnants have gone back across the border with it's tail between it's legs

[bickster]

This thread highlights some of the other consequences of this.

 

[bickster]

Also the Liberation of Irpin was helped by the Ukrainian FOreign Legion, specifically the Alpha 1 unit which is comprised mainly of British and US ex-Special Forces

 

[Genie]

18 minutes ago, chrisp65 said:

Given that Putin doesn’t really value human life greatly, and certainly wouldn’t value the grunts pushed to the front line, I think his ability to put up with deaths and casualties is far higher than some are hoping.

He’s also lost a lot of equipment, but they can get new stuff over time. The economy being in the bin, well its been there before and any country with wheat, timber and oil will be ok again eventually. The people have been cold and hungry the majority of their history. It’s been a badge of honour for many in the past.

So on the metrics of deaths, equipment, and money, perhaps Putin isn’t all that bothered. They are all cheap and temporary.

So, on the metric of does he hold more land now than at the start, and does his enemy have less land and less towns, less docks, less airports. He’s winning.

I can’t see any negotiated settlement being negotiated back to no loss of land or free will for Ukraine. So at a (perceived by us) great cost, Putin will come out of this with more land and more assets than before.

Unless of course, the West can persuade Ukraine to fight on and on and on in to the summer, back to the original lines on the map for total victory.

The winner may well be listed differently, depending on where you buy your history books.

It’s still too early to call, even if Russia ends up with more land than before I think the cost will not show it as a victory.

Thousands of soldiers dead, captured or surrendered.

Billions of dollars worth of kit destroyed or abandoned. Lots of it in the hands of the opposition.

The economy at home on its knees

The assets are of the leaders frozen

Many Western brands and businesses cut ties with the country.

The might of the superpower which had unlimited time and money to prepare and still came up short in many areas having to publicly retreat.

A leader previously respected by some now looks incompetent.

I don’t think a bit more of something which it already had an enormous abundance of will be seen as victory in Moscow or anywhere else.

Russia and Ukraine both lose. But one has been humiliated by its own actions.

 

 

[bannedfromHandV]

1 hour ago, nick76 said:

I’m not sure what is wrong with taking notes like that, whenever I do a presentation I always prepare answers/bullet points I want to make in reply to possible questions or talking points.  

It’s just good preparedness doesn’t matter who it is.  I know Trump got slammed for it and now Biden and I’m not sure why.  Plenty of reasons to have a go at Trump or Biden but I’m not sure being prepared is one.  

I get Biden might have spoken out of turn and his “handlers” are now preparing him but there are bigger issues to deal with than something like this imo.

I use bullet points, notes etc too but then that’s often because I actually know sweet FA about what I’m talking about.

To be the leader of a country I think I’d expect a tad more.

[magnkarl]

40 minutes ago, chrisp65 said:

Given that Putin doesn’t really value human life greatly, and certainly wouldn’t value the grunts pushed to the front line, I think his ability to put up with deaths and casualties is far higher than some are hoping.

He’s also lost a lot of equipment, but they can get new stuff over time. The economy being in the bin, well its been there before and any country with wheat, timber and oil will be ok again eventually. The people have been cold and hungry the majority of their history. It’s been a badge of honour for many in the past.

So on the metrics of deaths, equipment, and money, perhaps Putin isn’t all that bothered. They are all cheap and temporary.

So, on the metric of does he hold more land now than at the start, and does his enemy have less land and less towns, less docks, less airports. He’s winning.

I can’t see any negotiated settlement being negotiated back to no loss of land or free will for Ukraine. So at a (perceived by us) great cost, Putin will come out of this with more land and more assets than before.

Unless of course, the West can persuade Ukraine to fight on and on and on in to the summer, back to the original lines on the map for total victory.

The winner may well be listed differently, depending on where you buy your history books.

First off, you can't compare the Soviet Union to Russia 2022.

The Soviet Union had productive countries in it. Poland, Ukraine, DDR, Slovakia\Czech, Lithuania, Estonia, Georgia. Russia has a lot of oil, but it lacks the fundamental thing, manpower. It has an aging, dying population with zero growth. It's never been sanctioned like this. It's never lost equipment at this scale since it had the Caucasus oil fields and Ukrainians doing penal labour to rebuild their army.

Secondly, 'been there, done that', isn't the same to a Muscovite as it is to a Ukrainian. Ukraine and USSR's Western countries took the brunt of the cold and hunger, not the Russians. Russia hasn't been in this position since they had a Tzar and got destroyed in the Crimean War and WW1.

Edited March 29, 2022 by magnkarl

[sne]

WW2 probably wasn't all that fun for the Russians. Moscow, Leningrad or wherever.

[magnkarl]

3 minutes ago, sne said:

WW2 probably wasn't all that fun for the Russians. Moscow, Leningrad or wherever.

Compared to Poland, Belarus, Ukraine, Georgia? Russia had it bad, but it's always had a cushion between it and whatever it's facing. It's what Putin dreams of.

Holodomor says hi.

[sne]

6 minutes ago, magnkarl said:

Compared to Poland, Belarus, Ukraine, Georgia? Russia had it bad, but it's always had a cushion between it and whatever it's facing. It's what Putin dreams of.

Holodomor says hi.

Not really a competition is it. Russia had a absolute horror for WW2.

[Mic09]

1 hour ago, nick76 said:

I’m not sure what is wrong with taking notes like that, whenever I do a presentation I always prepare answers/bullet points I want to make in reply to possible questions or talking points.  

It’s just good preparedness doesn’t matter who it is.  I know Trump got slammed for it and now Biden and I’m not sure why.  Plenty of reasons to have a go at Trump or Biden but I’m not sure being prepared is one.  

I get Biden might have spoken out of turn and his “handlers” are now preparing him but there are bigger issues to deal with than something like this imo.

I guess the issue people have is that the answers are not given by politicians, they are a twisted PR campaign. 

[bickster]

The alternative to political leaders speaking with notes is knobheads like Johnson

[chrisp65]

Let’s fast forward 10 years.

No map is going to show the land gained with a caption that it cost 32,000 lives and 54,000 lorries.

I am more than happy for the Russian mafia establishment to get a massive bloody nose.

My point, is that they are measuring this by different metrics to us.

[Genie]

8 minutes ago, chrisp65 said:

Let’s fast forward 10 years.

No map is going to show the land gained with a caption that it cost 32,000 lives and 54,000 lorries.

I am more than happy for the Russian mafia establishment to get a massive bloody nose.

My point, is that they are measuring this by different metrics to us.

They already have twice as much land as the next biggest country, are they really bothered about a bit more? I don’t think so and it won’t wash back home.

In 10 years time they’ll be more concerned about the massive scar on their economy, the humiliation of retreating from Ukraine, the huge slump in living standards and the memorials to a generation of dead soldiers. 

[Delphinho123]

9 minutes ago, Genie said:

They already have twice as much land as the next biggest country, are they really bothered about a bit more? I don’t think so and it won’t wash back home.

In 10 years time they’ll be more concerned about the massive scar on their economy, the humiliation of retreating from Ukraine, the huge slump in living standards and the memorials to a generation of dead soldiers. 

I don’t think Putin will care about most of that. 

[nick76]

1 hour ago, bannedfromHandV said:

I use bullet points, notes etc too but then that’s often because I actually know sweet FA about what I’m talking about.

To be the leader of a country I think I’d expect a tad more.

When I present it’s generally on a subject very much in my sweet spot but I always have notes.  It’s always easier to have good quality answers to likely questions.  To business leaders I’ve done mock presentations beforehand to strengthen my answer to questions so as to convey the response more articulate, succinct and for the level of the audience in the real presentation.  Key bullet point points assist on the day and almost all senior directors I’ve worked with do the same.  I would be surprised if Biden or any leader did anything different.  You watch, almost all leaders carry notes.