Russia and its “Special Operation” in Ukraine

[Awol]

42 minutes ago, magnkarl said:

Agreed. Where do you think the line goes for Russia? 50.000 dead? 100.000? 1000 tanks?

One dead or injured soldiers likely has anywhere from 4-10 family members who won't be happy. How long can Putin keep it quiet?

I’ve no idea what Russia’s tolerance for casualties will be, how long the Kremlin can control the information environment and what repression they might resort to if they failed to do so. Historically Russian leaders have killed millions of their own citizens in pursuit of ideological goals, so there’s scope for a lot to happen. 

My take has consistently been that only the army can remove Putin, so perhaps the core question is what is the generals line, beyond which they will act? Again that’s not knowable to us, but the only way to find out is to keep killing their soldiers in the largest possible numbers as quickly as possible.

To that end, the west as a whole should be pouring every man-portable weapon system we have into the hands of willing Ukrainians. That isn’t happening, or at least only a few countries are fully committed to helping them to the degree required. 

[nick76]

26 minutes ago, Awol said:

My take has consistently been that only the army can remove Putin, so perhaps the core question is what is the generals line, beyond which they will act?

We have to also take into consideration that some of the generals may agree with Putin, some may even be more hardliners than Putin.  We know from history that some generals of leaders/dictators were just as bad or even worse than the leaders.  To assume that Putin in that inner circle is the only madman I think maybe naive.

Edited March 29, 2022 by nick76

[KentVillan]

17 minutes ago, nick76 said:

We have to also take into consideration that some of the generals may agree with Putin, some may even be more hardliners than Putin.  We know from history that some generals of leaders/dictators were just as bad or even worse than the leaders.  To assume that Putin in that inner circle is the only madman I think maybe naive.

I don’t think he was assuming that, but within the senior ranks of the army there will also be men who doubt the strategy, and they are the only people with a faint chance of seizing power.

Most likely I think is that Putin hangs on and Russia becomes a kind of North Korea - increasingly isolated, impoverished and paranoid, but able to survive as a cult of personality. The oligarchs make their getaways and Putin clings on to power without their support.

But who knows… there are so many possibilities at the moment.

[OutByEaster?]

1 hour ago, Awol said:

4) is even more important to Putin than people without the necessary clearances realised. 

5) Is claiming to have been poisoned as part of his ongoing efforts to position himself as a 'good' Russian in preparation for a future coup and leadership role?

 

[Mandy Lifeboats]

46 minutes ago, Awol said:

Edit: abrupt bordering rude- sorry. 
 

I disagree and haven’t suggested Ukraine is losing, heavily or otherwise. They are walking a fine line and collapse could occur suddenly and without warning, but for now they’re resisting in pretty spectacular fashion. If that is to continue they will need luck, and a lot more support from the countries sheltering behind them in Europe. 

Sorry @Awol  My post was badly worded. 

"Thank god someone can see the true position" relates to your opinions in your post.  Your post is spot on.  Ukraine are resisting spectacularly but they could collapse. 

"Ukraine are losing this war......." This is my opinion. Ukraine is holding its own but is utilising every single resource they have.  But their ability to wage a long term conventional war is diminishing.  They are winning the battle but losing the war. 

They can win this war conventionally.   But that would require Nato to arm them with very different weapons. 

[nick76]

3 minutes ago, KentVillan said:

I don’t think he was assuming that, but within the senior ranks of the army there will also be men who doubt the strategy, and they are the only people with a faint chance of seizing power.

Most likely I think is that Putin hangs on and Russia becomes a kind of North Korea - increasingly isolated, impoverished and paranoid, but able to survive as a cult of personality. The oligarchs make their getaways and Putin clings on to power without their support.

But who knows… there are so many possibilities at the moment.

Yeah I agree.  I was just pointing out because on different platforms I see people say why aren’t Putin’s generals pushing his out of power, which I think is naive.  Putin is going to be hugely paranoid at the moment and will only have his closet allies with him.  I agree with you though

[Awol]

1 hour ago, OutByEaster? said:

5) Is claiming to have been poisoned as part of his ongoing efforts to position himself as a 'good' Russian in preparation for a future coup and leadership role?

 

Who knows, it’s not unthinkable is it? You could imagine the west viewing him as a better alternative so happy to collude / assist.

[Awol]

58 minutes ago, nick76 said:

Yeah I agree.  I was just pointing out because on different platforms I see people say why aren’t Putin’s generals pushing his out of power, which I think is naive.  Putin is going to be hugely paranoid at the moment and will only have his closet allies with him.  I agree with you though

Yeah I don’t see him being replaced by Russia’s answer to Nick Clegg, but as Kent says that group of Generals are the only people with the resources to get him out. 

If Abramovich was a poisoning target and the order didn’t come from Putin, there’s clearly other hardliners out there even more aggressive than mad Vlad - not a comforting thought.  My point is the army is the source of their power, chewing it up beyond a certain point may motivate them to action. 

[Genie]

Breakthrough

Quote

Due to the fact that negotiations over an agreement on Ukraine’s neutrality and non-nuclear status and security guarantees (for Ukraine) are moving into a practical stage, and taking into consideration the principles discussed during today’s meeting, the Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation has taken the decision to drastically reduce combat operations in the Kyiv and Chernihiv areas in order to boost mutual trust and create the necessary conditions for further negotiations and for the signing of the aforementioned agreement.

Alexander FominRussia's Deputy Defence Minister

 

[magnkarl]

45 minutes ago, Genie said:

Breakthrough

 

Kyiv and Chernihiv, aka the areas where they’ve been beaten back the furthest. I don’t trust anything from Russia tbh.

[LondonLax]

They have given up on trying to take Kyiv and have decided those troops would be better used in the south where Russia are having more success. Any talk of 'good faith negotiations' is merely coincidence. 

[PieFacE]

3 minutes ago, magnkarl said:

I don’t trust anything from Russia tbh.

yeah same. If they do decide to remove military from those areas it's only because it benefits them imo. They're not doing it for the good of Ukraine. Though I guess from Ukraine's POV it may mean less death to civilians so they have to view it as a win, even if it isn't necessarily on their terms. 

[bannedfromHandV]

Confidence and trust in anything and everything Russia says or does over the next decade (at least) should be zero, and treated as such.

I hate the notion that once ‘peace’ is agreed we can all just go back to ‘normality’ - ie buying Russian goods, trading in Russia etc etc.

Perhaps I’m being overly harsh on the average Russian but I want to see the country suffer for what they’ve done here, I want them to be stretched to breaking point so that maybe, just maybe they unilaterally come to a decision that being this aggressive, warmongering, west-hating bunch of arrogant scumbags isn’t the way forward.

Edited March 29, 2022 by bannedfromHandV

[Genie]

Yeah, they’re dressing up the fact they’ve realised they can’t win in those areas (unless they commit lots of men and equipment) as an olive branch.

Time will tell if this is a step forwards. 

[Genie]

1 minute ago, bannedfromHandV said:

Confidence and trust in anything and everything Russia says or does over the next decade (at least) should be zero, and treated as such.

I hate the notion that once ‘peace’ is agreed we can all just go back to ‘normality’ - ie buying Russian goods, trading in Russia etc etc.

Perhaps I’m being overly harsh on the average Russian but I want to see the country suffer for what they’ve done here, I want them to be stretched to breaking point so that maybe, just maybe they unilaterally come to a decision that being this aggressive, warmongering, west-hating bunch of arrogant scumbags, perhaps there’s another path.

I think sanctions on Russia from the RoW will remain for many years to come regardless of what happens in Ukraine now.

Removal of sanctions will be a carrot the west can use to encourage a regime change by the people of Russia.

[Amsterdam_Neil_D]

53 minutes ago, Genie said:

Removal of sanctions will be a carrot the west can use to encourage a regime change by the people of Russia.

Even without sanctions it could be argued that the brand "Russia" is forever now tarnished as as totally unreliable investment partner.

Its a hard sell to shareholders to go back to the women and children killers country and carry on like nothing has happened and start selling expensive watches.

 

 

[sne]

3 minutes ago, Amsterdam_Neil_D said:

Even without sanctions it could be argued that the brand "Russia" is forever now tarnished as as totally unreliable investment partner.

Its a hard sell to shareholders to go back to the women and children killers country and carry on like nothing has happened and start selling expensive watches.

 

 

And that's where the Soviet Union makes a celebrated return 

[BleedClaretAndBlue]

 

[Amsterdam_Neil_D]

29 minutes ago, sne said:

And that's where the Soviet Union makes a celebrated return 

The only country in the world where the "Are we the baddies?" sketch is becoming a real life conversation.  

 

[mjmooney]

9 minutes ago, Amsterdam_Neil_D said:

The only country in the world where the "Are we the baddies?" sketch is becoming a real life conversation.  

TBF, it's one we should have had several times in this country.