Russia and its “Special Operation” in Ukraine

[Genie]

1 minute ago, chrisp65 said:

Day 1, there was a Ukrainian woman asking the Russian soldiers to put sunflower seeds in their pockets, so something good would grow where they died. 

Day 21, send someone to collect your dead bodies, we’ll confirm where they are and promise not to shoot the recovery team during the collection

[magnkarl]

10 minutes ago, chrisp65 said:

Day 1, there was a Ukrainian woman asking the Russian soldiers to put sunflower seeds in their pockets, so something good would grow where they died. 

If she's experienced Soviet rule she probably quite rightly assumed that Putin doesn't give a rat's arse about the young men he sent to war.

It's another case where Zelensky is winning the info-war though, he can either bury them himself and be the good guy or keep reiterating to the Russians that they aren't picking up the young men they've thrown away for fascist ambitions. 

Edited March 18, 2022 by magnkarl

[hippo]

Lviv airport attacked.

Would this be the Russians trying to cut off the supply of NATO arms - presumably arriving via Poland.  (Speculating)  

[magnkarl]

2 minutes ago, hippo said:

Lviv airport attacked.

Would this be the Russians trying to cut off the supply of NATO arms - presumably arriving via Poland.  (Speculating)  

They've struck a shut down airport, hitting an aircraft repair hangar and a bus shed. Aid isn't coming into Ukraine via plane, it's coming via truck on countless roads and rail.

[chrisp65]

5 minutes ago, magnkarl said:

If she's experienced Soviet rule she probably quite rightly assumed that Putin doesn't give a rat's arse about the young men he sent to war.

It's another case where Zelensky is winning the info-war though, he can either bury them himself and be the good guy or keep reiterating to the Russians that they aren't picking up the young men they've thrown away for fascist ambitions. 

 

I can’t help feeling an official and honourable war grave site in Ukraine would be the decent thing to do. Open access to Russian relatives.

They would be free to visit, and see the fields of graves of their sons.

Perhaps an Overloon type museum next to it, with remnants of destroyed inadequate vehicles and abandoned kit.

[bickster]

45 minutes ago, magnkarl said:

As long as Russia hasn't collected the bodies they can hide behind that the soldiers are lost\pow's. My guess is that this is a deliberate tactic to avoid turbulence back home. Body bags from Afghanistan contributed heavily to USSR's fall so Putin is probably fine with the bodies of Russian young men being left in the country he's trying to pulverise.

Related: From Zelensky's latest address

Quote

"New Russian conscripts had been taken prisoner. There are individuals who refuse to return to Russia among them. There are many who are not even mentioned in Russia. They [Russian authorities- ed.] are not even trying to take them back. "Killed in action" notices were sent to their addresses, while they are in captivity and are alive. "

Ukrainian Pravda

[Genie]

Putin outlines his demands for peace with Turkish President

——————————————————————

On Thursday afternoon, President Vladimir Putin rang the Turkish President, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and told him what Russia's precise demands were for a peace deal with Ukraine. 

Within half an hour of the ending of the phone call, I interviewed Mr Erdogan's leading adviser and spokesman, Ibrahim Kalin. Mr Kalin was part of the small group of officials who had listened in on the call.

The Russian demands fall into two categories. 

The first four demands are, according to Mr Kalin, not too difficult for Ukraine to meet. 

Chief among them is an acceptance by Ukraine that it should be neutral and should not apply to join Nato. Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky has already conceded this. 

There are other demands in this category which mostly seem to be face-saving elements for the Russian side. 

Ukraine would have to undergo a disarmament process to ensure it wasn't a threat to Russia. There would have to be protection for the Russian language in Ukraine. And there is something called de-Nazification. 

This is deeply offensive to Mr Zelensky, who is himself Jewish and some of whose relatives died in the Holocaust, but the Turkish side believes it will be easy enough for Mr Zelensky to accept. Perhaps it will be enough for Ukraine to condemn all forms of neo-Nazism and promise to clamp down on them.

The second category is where the difficulty will lie, and in his phone call, Mr Putin said that it would need face-to-face negotiations between him and President Zelensky before agreement could be reached on these points. Mr Zelensky has already said he's prepared to meet the Russian president and negotiate with him one-to-one. 

Mr Kalin was much less specific about these issues, saying simply that they involved the status of Donbas, in eastern Ukraine, parts of which have already broken away from Ukraine and stressed their Russianness, and the status of Crimea. 

Although Mr Kalin didn't go into detail, the assumption is that Russia will demand that the Ukrainian government should give up territory in eastern Ukraine. That will be deeply contentious. 

The other assumption is that Russia will demand that Ukraine should formally accept that Crimea, which Russia illegally annexed in 2014, does indeed now belong to Russia. If this is the case, it will be a bitter pill for Ukraine to swallow.

More on the link to BBC

Edited March 18, 2022 by Genie

[hippo]

8 minutes ago, Genie said:

Putin outlines his demands for peace with Turkish President

——————————————————————

On Thursday afternoon, President Vladimir Putin rang the Turkish President, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and told him what Russia's precise demands were for a peace deal with Ukraine. 

Within half an hour of the ending of the phone call, I interviewed Mr Erdogan's leading adviser and spokesman, Ibrahim Kalin. Mr Kalin was part of the small group of officials who had listened in on the call.

The Russian demands fall into two categories. 

The first four demands are, according to Mr Kalin, not too difficult for Ukraine to meet. 

Chief among them is an acceptance by Ukraine that it should be neutral and should not apply to join Nato. Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky has already conceded this. 

There are other demands in this category which mostly seem to be face-saving elements for the Russian side. 

Ukraine would have to undergo a disarmament process to ensure it wasn't a threat to Russia. There would have to be protection for the Russian language in Ukraine. And there is something called de-Nazification. 

This is deeply offensive to Mr Zelensky, who is himself Jewish and some of whose relatives died in the Holocaust, but the Turkish side believes it will be easy enough for Mr Zelensky to accept. Perhaps it will be enough for Ukraine to condemn all forms of neo-Nazism and promise to clamp down on them.

The second category is where the difficulty will lie, and in his phone call, Mr Putin said that it would need face-to-face negotiations between him and President Zelensky before agreement could be reached on these points. Mr Zelensky has already said he's prepared to meet the Russian president and negotiate with him one-to-one. 

Mr Kalin was much less specific about these issues, saying simply that they involved the status of Donbas, in eastern Ukraine, parts of which have already broken away from Ukraine and stressed their Russianness, and the status of Crimea. 

Although Mr Kalin didn't go into detail, the assumption is that Russia will demand that the Ukrainian government should give up territory in eastern Ukraine. That will be deeply contentious. 

The other assumption is that Russia will demand that Ukraine should formally accept that Crimea, which Russia illegally annexed in 2014, does indeed now belong to Russia. If this is the case, it will be a bitter pill for Ukraine to swallow.

More on the link to BBC

Sadly I think in due course Ukraine will be forced to accept something pretty close to the above.

The concern for me (and no doubt Ukraine) is will Putin keep his side of the deal.

[hippo]

32 minutes ago, magnkarl said:

They've struck a shut down airport, hitting an aircraft repair hangar and a bus shed. Aid isn't coming into Ukraine via plane, it's coming via truck on countless roads and rail.

My point was more the geographical area they are targeting rather than the airport itself.

[Genie]

1 minute ago, hippo said:

Sadly I think in due course Ukraine will be forced to accept something pretty close to the above.

The concern for me (and no doubt Ukraine) is will Putin keep his side of the deal.

I agree.

Hopefully the sanctions on Russia force a change of leader in due course.

[KentVillan]

A really tough account of life in Mariupol at the moment, and the experience of escaping Mariupol

[Hobsons Choice]

17 minutes ago, Genie said:

I agree.

Hopefully the sanctions on Russia force a change of leader in due course.

Does anyone believe a word Putin says any more? There will have to be a clause that if he kicks off again against the weakened Ukranian defences that a military alliance perhaps not NATO in name, but in practice would come to Ukraine's defence. The UK have said they would act as guarantors for such an agreement.

[Davkaus]

50 minutes ago, Genie said:

 

Ukraine would have to undergo a disarmament process to ensure it wasn't a threat to Russia. 

"Good job holding off the invasion. Now disarm, and we promise not to invade again once you can't defend yourselves"

[Genie]

3 minutes ago, Davkaus said:

"Good job holding off the invasion. Now disarm, and we promise not to invade again once you can't defend yourselves"

Against Russia or anyone else who fancies having a pop at a completely defenceless country.

[Tayls]

1 hour ago, hippo said:

The concern for me (and no doubt Ukraine) is will Putin keep his side of the deal.

This is where a guarantor will be of help. It will state that if Ukraine was to come under attack by Russia again in the future, then X, Y and Z will help to defend it. By what means, I don’t know. 

[Genie]

Just now, Tayls said:

This is where a guarantor will be of help. It will state that if Ukraine was to come under attack by Russia again in the future, then X, Y and Z will help to defend it. By what means, I don’t know. 

Then Russia may as well let them join NATO.

[StefanAVFC]

It can all end up in a loop

*want to join defensive alliance to protect against Russia*

*Russia don't want them to join so invade*

*Peace deal - no defensive alliance but we won't invade again*

*want to join defensive alliance to protect against Russia* 

 

[Tayls]

12 minutes ago, Genie said:

Then Russia may as well let them join NATO.

I guess having a demilitarised Ukraine, with a US guarantor is more appealing than a heavily armed Ukraine with the support of NATO behind it… let’s say the US is the only guarantor then it’s going to take them a while to get Ukraine the support it needs (assuming they avoid direct combat themselves). I’m also assuming that the rest of Europe will become involved as well like this time round. 

Its very complex! So many possible outcomes. But at the end of the day we just need Russia to stop killing civilians… 

[blandy]

In negotiations, it seems like Russia always demands something it knows cannot be granted. It was the same before they invaded as it is now - they're asking for stuff which they know cannot be conceded (alongside some stuff which might be). I don't know if it's to give them an excuse to walk away, or if it's in the hope that they get something that otherwise wouldn't be granted. But it seems likely that it will fail.

[Genie]

2 minutes ago, Tayls said:

I guess having a demilitarised Ukraine, with a US guarantor is more appealing than a heavily armed Ukraine with the support of NATO behind it… let’s say the US is the only guarantor then it’s going to take them a while to get Ukraine the support it needs (assuming they avoid direct combat themselves). I’m also assuming that the rest of Europe will become involved as well like this time round. 

Its very complex! So many possible outcomes. But at the end of the day we just need Russia to stop killing civilians… 

They’d be better letting Ukraine build its army up and defending itself than agreeing to have the US clean up any mess that might land on Ukrainian soil.

As you say, it’s very complex. I can’t see a way Ukraine agrees to a complete disarmament, especially with a total nutjob next door.