Russia and its “Special Operation” in Ukraine

[hippo]

3 minutes ago, sidcow said:

I tell you what, if Ukraine have any find of capability to mount a proper counter offensive I would love them to take out the forces surrounding Mariupol.  Rain hell down on them.

See whats happened ?

You've gained a taste for war.......where does it stop ?

Not aimed at you personally - but thats how all hell breaks lose and nothing is off the agenda - and atrocities become the norm. 

[sidcow]

4 minutes ago, hippo said:

See whats happened ?

You've gained a taste for war.......where does it stop ?

Not aimed at you personally - but thats how all hell breaks lose and nothing is off the agenda - and atrocities become the norm. 

They've destroyed 90% of the buildings in Mariupol. They need to be stopped.

[chrisp65]

5 minutes ago, hippo said:

See whats happened ?

You've gained a taste for war.......where does it stop ?

Not aimed at you personally - but thats how all hell breaks lose and nothing is off the agenda - and atrocities become the norm. 

Alright Ghandi, calm down.

[chrisp65]

1 minute ago, sidcow said:

They've destroyed 90% of the buildings in Mariupol. They need to be stopped.

Alright Rambo, calm down.

[bickster]

1 hour ago, hippo said:

(Precision strikes are  largely a myth)

An awful lot of what you are seeing in this war are precision strikes and they are very precise

Russia is not launching indiscriminate cruise missiles at military targets and missing, it is going for precision strikes on civilian targets

[LondonLax]

41 minutes ago, hippo said:

Thats completely against the pact Russia and china signed only a few weeks ago.

With NATO beefing up the Ukraine hardware - it would seem extremely optimistic  to expect China not to do likewise for Russia

 

China doesn’t care about pacts, China only cares about China. 

[sidcow]

15 minutes ago, chrisp65 said:

Alright Rambo, calm down.

They drew first blood

[BleedClaretAndBlue]

Wonder what info they extracted from the call?

also, Uzbekistan becomes the first Central Asian country to openly support the territorial integrity of Ukraine and condemn "military actions and agression"

[BleedClaretAndBlue]

 

[blandy]

4 hours ago, MakemineVanilla said:

 

He's not telling the truth, about promises broken - at least according to the Russian President, at the time, who was in the actual meetings. President Gorbachev

Quote

“The topic of “NATO expansion” was not discussed at all, and it wasn’t brought up in those years. I say this with full responsibility. Not a single Eastern European country raised the issue, not even after the Warsaw Pact ceased to exist in 1991. Western leaders didn’t bring it up, either. Another issue we brought up was discussed: making sure that NATO’s military structures would not advance and that additional armed forces from the alliance would not be deployed on the territory of the then-GDR after German reunification. Baker’s statement, mentioned in your question, was made in that context. Kohl and [German Vice Chancellor Hans-Dietrich] Genscher talked about it.

Everything that could have been and needed to be done to solidify that political obligation was done. And fulfilled. The agreement on a final settlement with Germany said that no new military structures would be created in the eastern part of the country; no additional troops would be deployed; no weapons of mass destruction would be placed there. It has been observed all these years. So don’t portray Gorbachev and the then-Soviet authorities as naïve people who were wrapped around the West’s finger. If there was naïveté, it was later, when the issue arose. Russia at first did not object.”

and to Bill Clinton, as documented in the transcripts of the meetings

Quote

"I can't make commitments on behalf of NATO, and I'm not going to be in the position myself of vetoing NATO expansion with respect to any country, much less letting you or anyone else do so…NATO operates by consensus."

The main US negotiator at the time, (Senator) James Baker, has said that promises or assurances were made about East Germany specifically. This, as with Gorbachev, has also been confirmed, via Gorbachev's translator in the meetings, a chap called Palazhchenko, who has said no promises were made about Czech, Hungary and the other former Soviet territories.

I completely countenance that Russia considered that intent to be more widely applicable, and that Western leaders later did what politicians also do at election time to us and say stuff like "I cannot foresee that happening, or we have no plans to..." and I guess its a matter of personal speculation or opinion as to whether those statements were given in good faith, or whether they were deliberate lies (given that the Pollies giving them had no control over the intent of other nations to join NATO ), but the notion that is voiced around actual promises/treaties/guarantees is not only unsupported by evidence, but contradicted by it.

[blandy]

1 hour ago, hippo said:

With NATO beefing up the Ukraine hardware - it would seem extremely optimistic  to expect China not to do likewise for Russia

 

China does 11 times more trade with the West than with Russia. China no doubt relishes the situation where Russia is highly dependent on China's assistance and trade and is in such a weak bargaining position with China, because of the sanctions on it. China probably also relishes that it can play the role of intermediary and get the gratitude of East and West alike for that role.

But China is very much more economically tangled with the US and the West than with Russia and that counts, despite whatever agreements they entered into with Putin recently, particularly if Putin initiated those while keeping his intent to destroy Ukraine from China, which seems likely.

China will not be the West's poodle and will want to demonstrate their independence of thought and decision making, but there are strong reasons for them to not give Russia more than token support.

[magnkarl]

1 hour ago, BleedClaretAndBlue said:

Wonder what info they extracted from the call?

also, Uzbekistan becomes the first Central Asian country to openly support the territorial integrity of Ukraine and condemn "military actions and agression"

Uzbekistan no doubt sees what Turkish hardware is doing to Russia. They're close with Turkey and Erdogan would likely do whatever he needed to keep them safe, along with trying to improve his sphere of influence over the region.

Good on them though. 

[magnkarl]

47 minutes ago, blandy said:

China does 11 times more trade with the West than with Russia. China no doubt relishes the situation where Russia is highly dependent on China's assistance and trade and is in such a weak bargaining position with China, because of the sanctions on it. China probably also relishes that it can play the role of intermediary and get the gratitude of East and West alike for that role.

But China is very much more economically tangled with the US and the West than with Russia and that counts, despite whatever agreements they entered into with Putin recently, particularly if Putin initiated those while keeping his intent to destroy Ukraine from China, which seems likely.

China will not be the West's poodle and will want to demonstrate their independence of thought and decision making, but there are strong reasons for them to not give Russia more than token support.

Worth noting that much of what China gets from Russia in the way of oil and gas is repayment of old credit. Russia has no capital to speak of which the Chinese market depends heavily on.

[Awol]

3 hours ago, magnkarl said:

I'm wondering, as @Awol has said before, if the West is now considering when and not if a war with Russia would be best. 

Not sure I did say that in terms, but meant we can use Ukraine as a willing proxy to destroy large swathes of Russia’s military capability.

Primarily that is to try and defeat the invasion, but failing that as a hedge against Putin not being removed and therefore delaying any planned aggression against NATO states. 

On the UN peacekeeping idea, its not happening. Russia would veto (likely China too) in the security council. 

[sidcow]

1 hour ago, BleedClaretAndBlue said:

Wonder what info they extracted from the call?

also, Uzbekistan becomes the first Central Asian country to openly support the territorial integrity of Ukraine and condemn "military actions and agression"

He's obviously let some stuff slip or there would be no confession. They'll try and play down what was said. 

How the hell does this kind of stuff even happen? Are there no checks? Ludicrous that anyone can just get through to such a high ranking Government Minister.  Not the first time this kind of thing has happened either. 

[Lichfield Dean]

The BBC is saying Priti Patel was also the target of a hoax call earlier this week. If so it's even more astonishing that they got through to Wallace.

[bickster]

2 minutes ago, Lichfield Dean said:

The BBC is saying Priti Patel was also the target of a hoax call earlier this week. If so it's even more astonishing that they got through to Wallace.

Is it? In a normal govt I'd agree with you but...

[Genie]

3 hours ago, hippo said:

Thats completely against the pact Russia and china signed only a few weeks ago.

With NATO beefing up the Ukraine hardware - it would seem extremely optimistic  to expect China not to do likewise for Russia

 

The difference is Russia are very much the bad guys, and also making very hard work of the invasion. 
Do China want to publicly associate themselves with war criminals who are doing badly (relative to the size of their military)?

[bickster]

Bild in Germany are reporting that Russian FM Lavrov was over half way to China last night and had to turn back 2800 miles to Moscow whem he was already over Siberia

Sounds like Xi was doing his hair or something

 

 

[Awol]

13 minutes ago, bickster said:

Is it? In a normal govt I'd agree with you but...

Civil servants manage access to Ministers, not the  politicians themselves. 

Out of office access is obviously managed by the Conservative Party - for cold hard cash.