hippo Posted March 16, 2022 Share Posted March 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, StefanAVFC said: Not just this. Also to stem the (over the top IMO) wave of Russophobia spreading around the West right now. "NOT ALL RUSSIANS" I went to a hardware shop yesterday (one of the chains) and they had a huge sign saying 'We don't sell to Russians' in Polish, English and Russian FFS. Same of any war not all Germans were nazis not all muslims are al-queda , ISIS Probably quite the opposite. Given the choice most people would rather sit down and have a chat - rather than running around blowing each others heads off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted March 16, 2022 Moderator Share Posted March 16, 2022 3 minutes ago, hippo said: and now all for a deal that was probably on the table anyway ???? It wasn't on the table anyway. That's my point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hippo Posted March 16, 2022 Share Posted March 16, 2022 1 minute ago, magnkarl said: You always start negotiations based on your hand. Ukraine's hand was weaker at the start of the war than it is now. Russia's hand is weaker now than it was at the start of the war. Even if Russia's losses and lack of progress is halved to what is reported, it's still staggering. Putin does not have the non-nuclear arms capacity to occupy, beat the ua forces and at the same time posture to NATO nations. If losses are halved to what UA forces report, he's lost something like 400 soldiers, 50 armoured vehicles, 30-40 tanks per day ++++. With economic sanctions he doesn't have the capacity to replace this modern weaponry. The long game is Ukraine's, the short game was Russia's. I don't know - But has Putin committed any where near all of his available military ? - could he just be stalling until he gets a delivery from China ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KentVillan Posted March 16, 2022 Share Posted March 16, 2022 (edited) I'm not actually convinced by the conspiracy theory re the TV protest. Elements of it make sense, but it's also quite possible that whoever is in charge of monitoring the broadcasts didn't spot it in time. The fact she wrote "No War" in English is just because English is the global lingua franca. The small fine is because she hasn't been charged with the TV protest yet - only her social media post [thanks @tonyh29] I understand the suspicion of Russia and their long track record of disinformation, but her story could be completely legit... maybe she's avoided harsh punishment because she's attracted global attention, and Putin would rather wait for that to die down before doing anything severe. Also, the idea that one TV protest will do anything to quell Russophobia or soften sanctions is pretty far fetched. Edited March 16, 2022 by KentVillan 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magnkarl Posted March 16, 2022 Share Posted March 16, 2022 6 minutes ago, StefanAVFC said: Not just this. Also to stem the (over the top IMO) wave of Russophobia spreading around the West right now. "NOT ALL RUSSIANS" I went to a hardware shop yesterday (one of the chains) and they had a huge sign saying 'We don't sell to Russians' in Polish, English and Russian FFS. It's dumb no doubt, also dumb based on the fact that Russians in Poland have likely left Russia due to the regime. I don't think anyone who gets normal news is a fan of Putin tbh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted March 16, 2022 Moderator Share Posted March 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, foreveryoung said: I guess it'll be hard to know who's Russian though? You mean apart from them speaking Russian? Far more Poles speak Russian than Russians speak Polish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hippo Posted March 16, 2022 Share Posted March 16, 2022 1 minute ago, bickster said: It wasn't on the table anyway. That's my point. OK - Im not an expert but - do you think it is now ? - thats a massive climbdown and borderline humiliation for Putin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonyh29 Posted March 16, 2022 Share Posted March 16, 2022 (edited) 4 minutes ago, KentVillan said: The small fine is because she's only gone through the civil case so far, the fine relates to social media posts I believe and not linked to the TV protest Edited March 16, 2022 by tonyh29 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magnkarl Posted March 16, 2022 Share Posted March 16, 2022 (edited) 4 minutes ago, hippo said: I don't know - But has Putin committed any where near all of his available military ? - could he just be stalling until he gets a delivery from China ? The U.S mod reports that all available Russian troops are committed (200.000), for every soldier there's 4 logistical soldiers\medics etc. Putin can't just reallocate all of his forces from in example the borders with Norway, Estonia, Lithuania, occupied territories in Moldova, Kaliningrad etc. He's in a pickle all right. Hence he's asked Assad and private militias to contribute. Edited March 16, 2022 by magnkarl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted March 16, 2022 Moderator Share Posted March 16, 2022 Just now, hippo said: OK - Im not an expert but - do you think it is now ? - thats a massive climbdown and borderline humiliation for Putin. Who knows? Hard to say. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Davkaus Posted March 16, 2022 Share Posted March 16, 2022 1 minute ago, tonyh29 said: the fine relates to social media posts I believe and not link to the TV protest This is true, but do the last couple of days stack up, given what we know of how other dissidents have been treated in Russia? I'd have expected her to be detained and silenced until the criminal trial 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted March 16, 2022 Moderator Share Posted March 16, 2022 3 minutes ago, tonyh29 said: the fine relates to social media posts I believe and not linked to the TV protest I thought she was charged with organising an unauthorised public meeting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
avfc1982am Posted March 16, 2022 Share Posted March 16, 2022 10 minutes ago, hippo said: I hope I am wrong but the talks of a breakthrough in talks don't add up to me. If all ukraine had to do was promise not to join to join NATO I believe they would have done that prior to the invasion. I think its a bit of spin to say there was a deal on the table but Russia chose to continue the war. I am really not sure Russia would go for small territorial gains and a Ukraine promise not to join NATO. I think Russia will have no choice. They've only made small territorial gains and are struggling to hold them now forces are stretched trying to advance West and North. Another couple of weeks and it won't matter what equipment they have, personnel loses will be the biggest contributor to losing this conflict and being pushed back. They will struggle to hold any of the cities they have taken if they do not pull back soon and reinforce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hippo Posted March 16, 2022 Share Posted March 16, 2022 Didn't the crisis start about the same time as wordle was sold to the NYT ? was putin pissed he missed out ? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Awol Posted March 16, 2022 Share Posted March 16, 2022 3 minutes ago, hippo said: I don't know - But has Putin committed any where near all of his available military ? - could he just be stalling until he gets a delivery from China ? Total military no, but military that can be deployed without spreading dangerously thin elsewhere? Yes. Units are now being deployed to fight in Ukraine from occupied territories of Georgia. Ukraine can still win this outright, if the west holds its collective nerve and doesn’t try to push Ukraine into too many concessions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StefanAVFC Posted March 16, 2022 VT Supporter Share Posted March 16, 2022 8 minutes ago, KentVillan said: Also, the idea that one TV protest will do anything to quell Russophobia or soften sanctions is pretty far fetched. I mean, it isn't just 1 TV protest is it? It's front page news literally everywhere. Not many stories cause that level of publicity. If it was a stunt, it's worked perfectly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hippo Posted March 16, 2022 Share Posted March 16, 2022 The whole things feckin mad - its like an updated lord of the rings script - total bonkers - blowing up civies and little kids - were are only on earth for around 70 years - feckin enjoy it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StefanAVFC Posted March 16, 2022 VT Supporter Share Posted March 16, 2022 (edited) 10 minutes ago, magnkarl said: It's dumb no doubt, also dumb based on the fact that Russians in Poland have likely left Russia due to the regime. I don't think anyone who gets normal news is a fan of Putin tbh. Not just that, but the Polish government has cancelled all current and in progress residencies for Russians over here. We have Russians in our company living over here, already left Russia due to disagreeing with Putin and are being punished, for what exactly? It's completely over the top. Edited March 16, 2022 by StefanAVFC 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sidcow Posted March 16, 2022 VT Supporter Share Posted March 16, 2022 1 minute ago, StefanAVFC said: I mean, it isn't just 1 TV protest is it? It's front page news literally everywhere. Not many stories cause that level of publicity. If it was a stunt, it's worked perfectly. Alexei Navalny is front page news all over the world too. it's not helped him any. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonyh29 Posted March 16, 2022 Share Posted March 16, 2022 6 minutes ago, bickster said: I thought she was charged with organising an unauthorised public meeting? like everything , reports seem to differ , but i took this article as my source Badamshin says the charge stemmed not from Ovsyannikova's on-air protest but from a video she posted on social media in which she called for Russians to protest the war in Ukraine. Ovsyannikova was fined 30,000 rubles (about $280) for that offense, he said. She still faces the threat of other charges. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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