Russia and its “Special Operation” in Ukraine

[kidlewis]

1 minute ago, nick76 said:

I do wonder though if the protests disappear when the next event happens.  Covid has pretty much fell off the radar of mainstream viewing, before that BLM marches, before that, before that and so on.  If something else happens soon will that mean this goes out of the centre of attention.

If he takes Ukraine in the next week, can he ride it out.  Will the sanctions stay in place fully? especially as it’s not a NATO country taken.  Will the Russian people care if it’s over if Putin gets the propaganda right locally.

Could be, Europe barely care about Syria so you could be right. 
 

and Putin has basically spent his money flattening that country for years but people still like to blame Obama for dipping in there. Syria appears to be Russias Iraq in terms of inflicting serious damage on a nation, albeit by the air.

Europe would surely continue sanctions until Russia backs out of Ukraine. If they don’t then Russia will have a tough few years ahead.

They’re going to struggle once global reliance on oil and gas diminishes. That said Ukraine has a pretty big chunk of Uranium to be selling afterwards….

[nick76]

1 minute ago, kidlewis said:

Could be, Europe barely care about Syria so you could be right. 
 

and Putin has basically spent his money flattening that country for years but people still like to blame Obama for dipping in there. Syria appears to be Russias Iraq in terms of inflicting serious damage on a nation, albeit by the air.

Europe would surely continue sanctions until Russia backs out of Ukraine. If they don’t then Russia will have a tough few years ahead.

They’re going to struggle once global reliance on oil and gas diminishes. That said Ukraine has a pretty big chunk of Uranium to be selling afterwards….

I assume if Putin rides it out he’ll focus on influencing foreign politicians through money/donations to get sanctions dropped….obviously not directly because that would be illegal but we all know it happens through degrees of separation influencing.

[trekka]

Send them the aircraft and the fighter pilots will learn to fly! 

More and more Air Defence equipment in from NATO too, please. 

Edited March 4, 2022 by trekka

[nick76]

Music to Putin’s ears

[avfc1982am]

Question??? If that 40 mile column get's taken out, relieving the North of Kyiv. Are Russia's forces broken? All southern elements of Russia's forces are stretched right along the east and south. IMO too far and too stretch to link up with forces in the North for quite some time. The west and many parts of the country are still far from occupied. Therefore, is Putin over playing his hand. If all you have is 40 miles of hardware ready to take a major city like Kyiv whereby street battles will be on another scale, then are you fully prepared. Seems to me for all Russia gains they are pretty bogged down. 

[nick76]

Rep. Kinzinger on point as usual

 

[Nicho]

3 minutes ago, avfc1982am said:

Question??? If that 40 mile column get's taken out, relieving the North of Kyiv. Are Russia's forces broken? All southern elements of Russia's forces are stretched right along the east and south. IMO too far and too stretch to link up with forces in the North for quite some time. The west and many parts of the country are still far from occupied. Therefore, is Putin over playing his hand. If all you have is 40 miles of hardware ready to take a major city like Kyiv whereby street battles will be on another scale, then are you fully prepared. Seems to me for all Russia gains they are pretty bogged down. 

Talk that the armoured fources have alread left and are moving around to the west.

Im starting to think Putins next steps after Ukraine and Moldova is to push a NATO coutry. Do it and no response and NATO will collapse. That is his end game for me. 

[foreveryoung]

1 hour ago, nick76 said:

Or put into place for stage 2 of the offensive, who knows!

They wouldn't have it sitting around for 4 days waiting for stage 2. If Nato were involved it would be lit up by now, an that's alot of hardware and troops. 

Not sure what's going on with it, sitting ducks they are.

 

[Adman]

1 hour ago, a m ole said:

Measure their hands and their penises too.

Or, hire a woman.

As a reasonable man, I just think it's time to let women rule the world.  We have had a good go, and we're just screwing it up over and over again.  Our fragile egos aren't cut out for positions of power

[foreveryoung]

2 minutes ago, Nicho said:

Talk that the armoured fources have alread left and are moving around to the west.

Im starting to think Putins next steps after Ukraine and Moldova is to push a NATO coutry. Do it and no response and NATO will collapse. That is his end game for me. 

Nato are already on high alert believe me. If they attempt tp invade a nato country, all hell will break loose on Russia.

[kidlewis]

It does have a depressing inevitability about it. Ukraine will become russia at some point.

 

I’ve read that the sanctions will really start to bite before the summer. Russian population will struggle to get every day items. Far more than covid ever could suppress demand.

russian manufacturing will also grind to a halt and mass unemployment will be there before 2023. 
 

russia isn’t North Korea, they’re actually pretty integrated globally for their economy. 
 

if the west hold sanctions properly for a sustained period i think the Oligarchs may have enough of Putin

[nick76]

2 minutes ago, foreveryoung said:

They wouldn't have it sitting around for 4 days waiting for stage 2.

Why? They know NATO aren’t going to intervene.  They take the southern cities and then move towards Kiev from the south and have it ready from the North.  4 days isn’t that long for troop movement especially when you know you aren’t going to be attacked, it’s just positioning for a future move.

[ender4]

1 minute ago, nick76 said:

Why? They know NATO aren’t going to intervene.  They take the southern cities and then move towards Kiev from the south and have it ready from the North.  4 days isn’t that long for troop movement especially when you know you aren’t going to be attacked, it’s just positioning for a future move.

Unless Ukraine can start chipping away at it with the incoming weaponry from Europe and Turkey.

[LondonLax]

The troops in the north are forced to use the roads because of the mud. This means they can only travel in long columns. However if one unit breaks down/runs out of fuel/is attacked it means the whole column is held up. 

From the sounds of it the equipment is not too well maintained. 

There was an interesting thread here just dealing with the problems of poorly maintained tires. 

 

 

 

[nick76]

3 minutes ago, kidlewis said:

It does have a depressing inevitability about it. Ukraine will become russia at some point.

 

I’ve read that the sanctions will really start to bite before the summer. Russian population will struggle to get every day items. Far more than covid ever could suppress demand.

russian manufacturing will also grind to a halt and mass unemployment will be there before 2023. 
 

russia isn’t North Korea, they’re actually pretty integrated globally for their economy. 
 

if the west hold sanctions properly for a sustained period i think the Oligarchs may have enough of Putin

Problem is that Putin’s replacement probably won’t be any better.  Can you see the next person wanting to look weak and completely pull out of Ukraine after taking it over under Putin.  That the leader is so weak it cowardly moves out because the West said so.  Doesn’t sound very Russian does it?  

Does worry me that once they are in, despite all the sanctions, no Russian leader whether Putin or the next one will want to lose face.

[nick76]

5 minutes ago, ender4 said:

Unless Ukraine can start chipping away at it with the incoming weaponry from Europe and Turkey.

I think they have too many battles with the active Russian movements to have time to engage with non-currently active Russians.  They need to get on the offensive but they are overwhelmed on the defensive at the moment.

[bannedfromHandV]

10 minutes ago, nick76 said:

Why? They know NATO aren’t going to intervene.  They take the southern cities and then move towards Kiev from the south and have it ready from the North.  4 days isn’t that long for troop movement especially when you know you aren’t going to be attacked, it’s just positioning for a future move.

It’s interesting to think that if NATO were involved that convoy would have been ablaze days ago, if a genuine WW3 scenario occurred would it be the satellites that would be attacked first and if so, how?

[bickster]

6 minutes ago, nick76 said:

Problem is that Putin’s replacement probably won’t be any better.  Can you see the next person wanting to look weak and completely pull out of Ukraine after taking it over under Putin.  That the leader is so weak it cowardly moves out because the West said so.  Doesn’t sound very Russian does it?  

Does worry me that once they are in, despite all the sanctions, no Russian leader whether Putin or the next one will want to lose face.

Putin's immediate replacement is likely to be a General you'd imagine. And that would be someone who'll realise that Putin has lost a huge amount of vehicles and some of its best men (and leaders too we're hearing)

I imagine that any military person would want to salvage whatever is left of the army to defend their own country first and foremost. They'd also know that it would buy them time on the home front as it would be a popular move to bring the army out

I could obviously be wrong but you have to think that the military wouldn't want to double down on the current shitshow

[sidcow]

2 minutes ago, bickster said:

Putin's immediate replacement is likely to be a General you'd imagine. And that would be someone who'll realise that Putin has lost a huge amount of vehicles and some of its best men (and leaders too we're hearing)

I imagine that any military person would want to salvage whatever is left of the army to defend their own country first and foremost. They'd also know that it would buy them time on the home front as it would be a popular move to bring the army out

I could obviously be wrong but you have to think that the military wouldn't want to double down on the current shitshow

Yes, if the plan was to press on, why would they remove Putin in the first place? That just wouldn't make sense. 

[nick76]

14 minutes ago, bickster said:

Putin's immediate replacement is likely to be a General you'd imagine. And that would be someone who'll realise that Putin has lost a huge amount of vehicles and some of its best men (and leaders too we're hearing)

I imagine that any military person would want to salvage whatever is left of the army to defend their own country first and foremost. They'd also know that it would buy them time on the home front as it would be a popular move to bring the army out

I could obviously be wrong but you have to think that the military wouldn't want to double down on the current shitshow

Wasn’t the news the other day that the Generals wanted to go in harder than they currently are and it was others that tempered it down.  The soldiers sound like they don’t want war, it was the Generals around Putin that wanted more.

Edited March 5, 2022 by nick76