Russia and its “Special Operation” in Ukraine

[CVByrne]

2 minutes ago, tonyh29 said:

Paraphrasing , but the Military expert on radio 5 live just now reckons  Russia are reluctant to do too much damage to Kyiv as its part of the bigger plan ( when its all over ) , hence why the military convoy is not moving in ..instead he believes they they will bomb the bejebus out of Kharkiv  and kinda use that as " this will be you next ,if you don't' surrender "

Well the Russians don't want to have a bloody war as that will make it harder to subjugate the population once occupied. Also Russia will need to pay for the rebuilding of these destroyed cities too as they'll need to financially back their new Pro Russian governments. Plus Russia has to replace the weapons and equipment they lose in the conflict

[Hobsons Choice]

4 minutes ago, tonyh29 said:

Paraphrasing , but the Military expert on radio 5 live just now reckons  Russia are reluctant to do too much damage to Kyiv as its part of the bigger plan ( when its all over ) , hence why the military convoy is not moving in ..instead he believes they they will bomb the bejebus out of Kharkiv  and kinda use that as " this will be you next ,if you don't' surrender "

It's hard to believe just how out of step Putin is with the Ukrainian people, who share much of the same culture. Ukraine will never surrender. Millions of people are going to die. 

[CVByrne]

2 minutes ago, HKP90 said:

I said right from the start that the key to this is China. They can enable Russia financially in the face of sanctions, and they can smother it by not buying their produce. 

If China can stop the war and play this right they can come out of this economically and geopolitically massively boosted. They look like the big boys on the world stage, which increases their prestige (face), they can be seen to be stable and exhibiting good judgment in the west, which will boost foreign investment, plus they have a Russia desperate for money willing to throw oil and gas at them. 

There is no reason for China to stop the War. This whole thing is in their favour. Forcing Russia to only be trading with China.

[Hobsons Choice]

Just now, CVByrne said:

Well the Russians don't want to have a bloody war as that will make it harder to subjugate the population once occupied. Also Russia will need to pay for the rebuilding of these destroyed cities too as they'll need to financially back their new Pro Russian governments. Plus Russia has to replace the weapons and equipment they lose in the conflict

Harder? There is zero. ZERO chance that Ukraine will suffer a pro russian government after this. Zero.

[LondonLax]

1 minute ago, CVByrne said:

There is no reason for China to stop the War. This whole thing is in their favour. Forcing Russia to only be trading with China.

Though they are probably not loving the current cost of energy. 

[Hobsons Choice]

Just now, CVByrne said:

There is no reason for China to stop the War. This whole thing is in their favour. Forcing Russia to only be trading with China.

Why? Trading with Russia after the sanctions kick in is going to be like trading with San Marino. Their economy will be dog dirt. 

China can boost trade with 200 odd countries, including the biggest economies in the world if they help stop it. Alternatively they could alienate themselves from those 200 countries if they support Russia. We'll just buy all our cheap tat from Viet Nam. 

 

[CVByrne]

9 minutes ago, LondonLax said:

Though they are probably not loving the current cost of energy. 

Higher cost of energy now but when Russia has to rely on China's market the Chinese will get lower energy costs in the medium term. Also China wants to end the Dollar as the worlds reserve currency. This helps their plan

[sidcow]

The West needs to stop buying Russian oil and gas, we've got to stop essentially paying for Russia to do this. 

With the enormous increase in costs the payback for heat pumps and solar panels and wind turbines is going to be so much shorter. Governments need to go all in investing in these. 

We're already moving to electric cars and I see this picking up.  People will feel more in inclined to do this now I feel, not just for environmental reasons anymore. 

And a lesson might be learned here in our dealings with China.  We've made China rich by taking advantage of their cheap goods, effectively funding their growth and power.  We're doing the same in India also, if they're going that way we might think twice about how much trade we put their way. 

It's painful but look where it ultimately ends if you fund despots and they go rogue. 

[Hobsons Choice]

I think China have been surprised and horrified by the west's response to this. They were initially making noises that they would back Putin up. They really had no idea this would unify the west like it has. Now they are professionally fence sitting while they figure out how the hell to respond. Their response will shape the world for the next 30 years. 

 

[Hobsons Choice]

2 minutes ago, sidcow said:

The West needs to stop buying Russian oil and gas, we've got to stop essentially paying for Russia to do this. 

With the enormous increase in costs the payback for heat pumps and solar panels and wind turbines is going to be so much shorter. Governments need to go all in investing in these. 

We're already moving to electric cars and I see this picking up.  People will feel more in inclined to do this now I feel, not just for environmental reasons anymore. 

And a lesson might be learned here in our dealings with China.  We've made China rich by taking advantage of their cheap goods, effectively funding their growth and power.  We're doing the same in India also, if they're going that way we might think twice about how much trade we put their way. 

It's painful but look where it ultimately ends if you fund despots and they go rogue. 

We shouldn't have needed another excuse to reduce reliance on fossil fuels, as Climate Change is an existential threat, but we certainly have one now. 

[sidcow]

Just now, HKP90 said:

We shouldn't have needed another excuse to reduce reliance on fossil fuels, as Climate Change is an existential threat, but we certainly have one now. 

I expect this might be some of the reason why he's done it now.  He's got 20 years max to make hay whilst the sun shines with oil and gas, by the consumption is going fall off a cliff. 

They should have spent the last 40 years modernising Russia with Oil money, building modern industries.  Instead they've just let a few elite get super rich.    He needs to finally make money from the swansong of fossil fuels, either to see out the lives of himself and his cronies in luxury or to finally invest in the future of Russia. 

Unfortunately for him though the reaction will likely cripple Russia regardless of how much Ukrainian oil and gas they can steal. 

[NurembergVillan]

32 minutes ago, Genie said:

The average Vlad must have access to independent internet sources of what is really going on?

The average Barry and Sharon do too, but it didn't stop them voting to leave the EU and having a decade of Tory malfeasance.

[CVByrne]

5 minutes ago, sidcow said:

The West needs to stop buying Russian oil and gas, we've got to stop essentially paying for Russia to do this. 

With the enormous increase in costs the payback for heat pumps and solar panels and wind turbines is going to be so much shorter. Governments need to go all in investing in these. 

We're already moving to electric cars and I see this picking up.  People will feel more in inclined to do this now I feel, not just for environmental reasons anymore. 

And a lesson might be learned here in our dealings with China.  We've made China rich by taking advantage of their cheap goods, effectively funding their growth and power.  We're doing the same in India also, if they're going that way we might think twice about how much trade we put their way. 

It's painful but look where it ultimately ends if you fund despots and they go rogue. 

We can't, pivoting away will take a long long time. It needs countries like Germany to stop their anti Nuclear power stance and to build power plants. The French are the worlds experts and can do this for them. So for years we will be stuck needing to buy energy from Russia. 

If we focussed on buying from other countries only we would drive the price of energy through the roof and cause very high inflation in the West (beyond what we are seeing already) and this would force central banks to raise interest rates and cause a deep recession to curb it. That alone is dangerous in these populist times as that brings governments down and runs the risk of more far right / left populist governments.

Yes the time of globalisation which started with Reagan / Thatcher of lower interest rates, open trading economies with wide supply networks is ending. More will be made in more expensive but safer economies in Europe / North America. We will see inflation here to stay as a result and we will see higher interest rates. 

[Awol]

5 minutes ago, HKP90 said:

We shouldn't have needed another excuse to reduce reliance on fossil fuels, as Climate Change is an existential threat, but we certainly have one now. 

Medium to long term yes, but we also need to be real about requiring natural gas for the foreseeable future. I hope and expect to see renewed investment into the North Sea and another, less ideological look at fracking in northern England. You can support the green agenda while understanding that it’s not happening on a blank geopolitical canvas (or indeed that actions in the UK alone will make a measurable difference to the climate over the time frame we’re looking at). 

The need for security (physical, energy, resource, and now cyber too) is going to become a fact of life again in a way it hasn’t been since the 1980s.

[Hobsons Choice]

6 minutes ago, sidcow said:

I expect this might be some of the reason why he's done it now.  He's got 20 years max to make hay whilst the sun shines with oil and gas, by the consumption is going fall off a cliff. 

They should have spent the last 40 years modernising Russia with Oil money, building modern industries.  Instead they've just let a few elite get super rich.    He needs to finally make money from the swansong of fossil fuels, either to see out the lives of himself and his cronies in luxury or to finally invest in the future of Russia. 

Unfortunately for him though the reaction will likely cripple Russia regardless of how much Ukrainian oil and gas they can steal. 

Extremely good points. 

Shows how he's miscalculated though. Rather than guarantee his country's economic future, he's pretty much doomed it. 

 

That said, and this is a question for everyone here- if Russia start to negotiate, and pledge to withdraw right now IF we remove sanctions, would you take that offer? Not that he could because he would be seen to have lost the war by his own people, but just as a hypothetical. 

I don't want people to die in Ukraine, but Putin must not be allowed to do this, or anything like it again. Plus, how much are the Russian people, who are not responsible for this war likely to suffer under sanctions. Tough call. 

 

[bcarpet]

12 minutes ago, sidcow said:

The West needs to stop buying Russian oil and gas, we've got to stop essentially paying for Russia to do this. 

With the enormous increase in costs the payback for heat pumps and solar panels and wind turbines is going to be so much shorter. Governments need to go all in investing in these. 

We're already moving to electric cars and I see this picking up.  People will feel more in inclined to do this now I feel, not just for environmental reasons anymore. 

While I fully agree we need to use alternative ways of heating our houses, we just aren't in a position currently to do it.  We do not have the infrastructure to deal with installing and maintaining these heat pumps and other renewables on a massive national scale. We haven't invested enough in getting a work force trained in being able to install and maintain these.  Can you imagine how many more people would need to be trained to be able to not only install renewable energy on all new builds, but to be able to retrofit to all our existing houses?  I deal with a couple of very small contracts looking after these and its a right pain in the backside finding decent and reliable contractors who have the right skills.  The heat pumps are also quite unreliable and so expensive to repair, so more investment is needed in the technology too.

If we pushed it really hard from this point onwards, I'd imagine it would still take us 10 plus years to be capable.

 

[Hobsons Choice]

1 minute ago, Awol said:

Medium to long term yes, but we also need to be real about requiring natural gas for the foreseeable future. I hope and expect to see renewed investment into the North Sea and another, less ideological look at fracking in northern England. You can support the green agenda while understanding that it’s not happening on a blank geopolitical canvas (or indeed that actions in the UK alone will make a measurable difference to the climate over the time frame we’re looking at). 

The need for security (physical, energy, resource, and now cyber too) is going to become a fact of life again in a way it hasn’t been since the 1980s.

Understood, and I see your point, but the window in which we can prevent most of the world becoming uninhabitable is closing fast. IPPC just released a report to that effect. The words 'record breaking floods/wildfires/storms' are becoming commonplace now, and we've not seen 1 tenth of what is already locked in the pipeline. What's the point in us fighting each other over land that is going to be unliveable.

[Hobsons Choice]

5 minutes ago, bcarpet said:

While I fully agree we need to use alternative ways of heating our houses, we just aren't in a position currently to do it.  We do not have the infrastructure to deal with installing and maintaining these heat pumps and other renewables on a massive national scale. We haven't invested enough in getting a work force trained in being able to install and maintain these.  Can you imagine how many more people would need to be trained to be able to not only install renewable energy on all new builds, but to be able to retrofit to all our existing houses?  I deal with a couple of very small contracts looking after these and its a right pain in the backside finding decent and reliable contractors who have the right skills.  The heat pumps are also quite unreliable and so expensive to repair, so more investment is needed in the technology too.

If we pushed it really hard from this point onwards, I'd imagine it would still take us 10 plus years to be capable.

 

I think what the response to covid has shown is that there is almost nothing that we can't rapidly address if we actually want to. 

[LondonLax]

17 minutes ago, CVByrne said:

We can't, pivoting away will take a long long time. It needs countries like Germany to stop their anti Nuclear power stance and to build power plants. The French are the worlds experts and can do this for them. So for years we will be stuck needing to buy energy from Russia. 

Germany already had nuclear power, they made a decision to get out of nuclear after the Fukushima disaster. From the 17 plants they had I think there are three left and those will shut down this year.  They are not going to build new plants. 

Edited March 2, 2022 by LondonLax

[bannedfromHandV]

18 minutes ago, NurembergVillan said:

The average Barry and Sharon do too, but it didn't stop them voting to leave the EU and having a decade of Tory malfeasance.

A person is smart, people are dumb, Putin is a psychopath.