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Russia and its “Special Operation” in Ukraine


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5 minutes ago, Genie said:

His route out yes, but the RoW won’t forgive it and the country will be alienated and will go bust eventually.

Is it really that different to Crimea?

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The convoy is apparently being held up by the Ukranian army at the South end of Hostomel airport, they're not able to flank them as Ukraine has blown up bridges and several of the lead trucks. (France 24)

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16 minutes ago, CVByrne said:

I think his route out is a "ceasefire" once Kyiv is encircled and he has the majority Russian speaking / ethnic Russian and more pro Russian regions in East Ukraine and along Black sea coast occupied. He can then set up his Pro Russian states in those regions as it could be possible to have them controlled. Western Ukrain he'd need the Russian army to occupy and fight a large insurgency from the population there.

Possibly. But his overall aims would have failed miserably. He has made Russia a pariah state, and has managed to unite all of the  EU against him.  Even Turkey have spoken out. Ukraine was never able to have joined NATO ever since 2014 anyway, but this has probably speeded up their application to the EU.  The US and Britain have been arguing for decades for Germany to take a more muscular approach to defence spending, and Putin has helped them out enormously.

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2 minutes ago, The Fun Factory said:

Possibly. But his overall aims would have failed miserably. He has made Russia a pariah state, and has managed to unite all of the  EU against him.  Even Turkey have spoken out. Ukraine was never able to have joined NATO ever since 2014 anyway, but this has probably speeded up their application to the EU.  The US and Britain have been arguing for decades for Germany to take a more muscular approach to defence spending, and Putin has helped them out enormously.

All I can see is that Poo-Tin has made joining NATO even more desirable now. 

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22 minutes ago, sidcow said:

Rest of the world aren't going to let this rest now though is the point. 

Exactly. The squeeze stays on until Ukraine is restored. Putin has already failed politically but is going to kill a lot of people before he’s forced to concede, or (more likely) accidentally but brutally cuts his head off while combing his hair. 

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17 minutes ago, magnkarl said:

The convoy is apparently being held up by the Ukranian army at the South end of Hostomel airport, they're not able to flank them as Ukraine has blown up bridges and several of the lead trucks. (France 24)

Shows how important it was to take that back from the Russian air assault brigade on day 1. It’s like a modern Thermopylae, though maybe not the only similar situation there now. Their bravery is humbling.

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31 minutes ago, sidcow said:

Rest of the world aren't going to let this rest now though is the point. 

Yeah sanctions will stay on Russia and their economy will need to adapt. Putin can't have gone this far without securing large portions of Eastern Ukraine for the sepratists and restoring the canal water supply to Crimea. That's the minimum he'll take in a ceasefire. There will never be any treaty though, so it'll end up like Korea

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1 minute ago, Awol said:

Shows how important it was to take that back from the Russian air assault brigade on day 1. It’s like a modern Thermopylae, though maybe not the only similar situation there now. Their bravery is humbling.

And just imagine the chaos in the convoy, how do you move people/material up a road blocked with 4000 pieces of armor/cars/trucks/artillery? Once the head gets attacked, it's still like 6 hours from half way up the convoy to the front..

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Turkey is apparently going to block the Bosporus for Russian warships.

They didn't before as they didn't recognise the situation as a war and therefore needed to allow passage according to the Montreux Convention. The Turkish minister of foreign affair now stated it's a war on CNN, so Russia can no longer pass.

(+mandatory gif after that last sentence)

Shall Not Pass GIFs | Tenor 

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Just now, bickster said:

Did that days ago, they blew up the dam

Yeah, I meant securing that supply for good. As in they won't give up control of the land surrounding it now they've occupied it. So I imagine the land south and South east of the Dnieper between Crimea and the river itself will go to sepratists / stay occupied by russia. 

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Just now, AXD said:

Turkey is apparently going to block the Bosporus for Russian warships.

They didn't before as they didn't recognise the situation as a war and therefore needed to allow passage according to the Montreux Convention. The Turkish minister of foreign affair now stated it's a war on CNN, so Russia can no longer pass.

(+mandatory gif after that last sentence)

Shall Not Pass GIFs | Tenor 

That's a huge decision

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2 minutes ago, AXD said:

Turkey is apparently going to block the Bosporus for Russian warships.

They didn't before as they didn't recognise the situation as a war and therefore needed to allow passage according to the Montreux Convention. The Turkish minister of foreign affair now stated it's a war on CNN, so Russia can no longer pass.

(+mandatory gif after that last sentence)

Shall Not Pass GIFs | Tenor 

Hope they also send whatever drones they used against Russia in Azerbaijan, they worked wonders there.

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Just now, magnkarl said:

Hope they also send whatever drones they used against Russia in Azerbaijan, they worked wonders there.

The drones Ukraine has are Turkish made. I think they had about 10 of them at the start of this. Not sure how many are still operational. 

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48 minutes ago, ender4 said:

It's assumed that the Russians are guarding the airspace over that convoy very carefully, and so any surveillance will get shot down immediately. 

I'm not sure they'll be shooting down satellites.

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