chrisp65 Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 Just to bang on about my earlier point about what some of the Ukrainian military looks like, and what we can do to help. The U.S. was going to do special ops training, but then realised they’d be training and supplying people they have listed as terrorists. We must be in the same boat, we’re sending over anti tank missiles and all manner of other weaponry to an army that includes regiments that accept foreign recruits that can be trained up and shipped back home with an extreme right wing white power agenda. How could that possibly go wrong? It’s not like we’re teaching some bloody Afghan how to shoot down Russian helicopters. Surely if Ukraine wants to be part of NATO, perhaps a pre requisit would be to have less neo Nazi military units? I guess the other thing we could do, would be for our government not to dance for Russian money. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjmooney Posted February 20, 2022 VT Supporter Share Posted February 20, 2022 1 hour ago, osmark86 said: I'm sure Chelski supporters would love this proposal. Tough shit. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xann Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 51 minutes ago, chrisp65 said: I guess the other thing we could do, would be for our government not to dance for Russian money. The treacherous Brexit PM will surely be hoping the new obscenely wealthy suppliers of dodgy PPE will cover any future shortfalls in party funding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OutByEaster? Posted February 20, 2022 Moderator Share Posted February 20, 2022 Now I'm not sure I understand this fully, but from what I can gather, there are fears that the imposition of massive financial sanction on Russia might result in pushing them into the alternative global banking system that's being set up by the Chinese through their alternative to the World Bank and IMF, the AIIB. They've have been talking up a second finance system that isn't owned and operated by the US, based around the digital Yuan rather than the dollar. From the limited amount I understand, the fear of pushing Russia into that system by sanction (and their money and interests out of western banks) is acting as something of a buffer to the use of weaponised banking to keep them under control. I read something about the possibility of isolating Russia from global money and from the TRIPS agreement (on intellectual properties) but don't understand anything like enough about global finance to really understand. So I've got half of all sorts from a few places - does anyone have an actual understanding of how all this fits together and what it means for the situation in the Ukraine? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjmooney Posted February 20, 2022 VT Supporter Share Posted February 20, 2022 50 minutes ago, OutByEaster? said: does anyone have an actual understanding No. Literally nobody does. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OutByEaster? Posted February 20, 2022 Moderator Share Posted February 20, 2022 12 minutes ago, mjmooney said: No. Literally nobody does. A good point well made. I read a suggestion that Putin's primary motive in annexing the Crimea was that China were looking at using it in bypassing Russia at the EU end of their new silk road - I'm not sure how much there is in that either, but this certainly seems to be a complicated region. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjmooney Posted February 20, 2022 VT Supporter Share Posted February 20, 2022 11 minutes ago, OutByEaster? said: A good point well made. I read a suggestion that Putin's primary motive in annexing the Crimea was that China were looking at using it in bypassing Russia at the EU end of their new silk road - I'm not sure how much there is in that either, but this certainly seems to be a complicated region. Hope there's still a VT History Thread to make sense of this in 50 years' time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ciggiesnbeer Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 (edited) China is a big investor in Ukraine and a beneficiary of its military industry. China is also in deeply invested in the USA. If the USA economy suffers it would be disastrous for China. China will be desperate to stop Russia starting a war. The biggest losers with war will be Russia then what's left of Ukraine. For the EU/NATO/UK and USA it would be nothing but great news. Our economies will all thrive as we turn away from Russias sole export , raw materials, plenty of people sell oil and gas now. Russia would be doomed into 3rd world status. Russia is already isolated and almost entirely friendless after war they will become the new Saddam Iraq. That doesn't matter to Putin of course, his motives are those of all dictators, power at home. If Russians live in poverty or die by the thousands he doesn't care. To stay in power he needs more and more drastic invented crises to try and fool the populace into more nationalism. Because he cannot be removed by peaceful means and fair elections those around him will start to eye more direct ways to take him out and save Russia. As Churchill observed "Dictators ride to and fro upon tigers which they dare not dismount. And the tigers are getting hungry." Sadly this war will cause a lot of human suffering but the eventual beneficiaries geopolitically are the western European nations and the USA. It has already gone a long way to reinvigorating NATO and as it goes on those bonds will only strengthen. Its also a political gift to Boris and Biden. I have to say I give a lot of credit to the military planners in the USA (I dont credit Biden or Trump). The oddly hasty withdrawal from Afghanistan now looks like a sensible redeployment to focus on the main enemy, Russia. its going to be heartbreaking seeing the suffering in Ukraine and Russia in the next few months and years, but the reality is it simply strengthens the economies and countries in which most of us live. Putin wants to be the worlds new bad guy. Maybe that's what the western world needed? An obvious evil to unify against. Edited February 21, 2022 by ciggiesnbeer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Awol Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 Assumptions that any conflict will definitely be confined to Ukraine are pretty heroic, imo. Leaders (with any sense) don’t initiate wars without a very clear understanding of what they want to achieve politically, but once it begins war has a dynamic and a logic of its own that gets away from any initial intent. If sanctions are severe enough, Putin and those around him may feel they have little to lose and much to gain by escalating. If he lashes out with cyber attacks against the west then US and UK are capable of wreaking havoc in Russia, maybe prompting a conventional response. There’s a whole bunch of ways this could go sideways really fast, but the west just rolling over and handing Ukraine to Russia on a silver plate is no solution either. Not good. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chindie Posted February 20, 2022 VT Supporter Share Posted February 20, 2022 Appeasement or war. Flip a coin. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 We hear quite a bit about cyber attacks on the west by Russia. I have a feeling the people of Russia hear quite a bit about cyber attacks on them by the west. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KentVillan Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 11 hours ago, OutByEaster? said: Now I'm not sure I understand this fully, but from what I can gather, there are fears that the imposition of massive financial sanction on Russia might result in pushing them into the alternative global banking system that's being set up by the Chinese through their alternative to the World Bank and IMF, the AIIB. They've have been talking up a second finance system that isn't owned and operated by the US, based around the digital Yuan rather than the dollar. From the limited amount I understand, the fear of pushing Russia into that system by sanction (and their money and interests out of western banks) is acting as something of a buffer to the use of weaponised banking to keep them under control. I read something about the possibility of isolating Russia from global money and from the TRIPS agreement (on intellectual properties) but don't understand anything like enough about global finance to really understand. So I've got half of all sorts from a few places - does anyone have an actual understanding of how all this fits together and what it means for the situation in the Ukraine? Obviously I don’t know, but… I’m not sure I understand the economic logic of this argument. Russia is a military superpower, but it certainly isn’t an economic superpower. It has a smaller GDP than Italy. Losing Russia to an “alternative banking system” just wouldn’t have a big enough impact on Western economic interests, to make this outcome a disincentive to punish them, surely? The energy dependency is a much bigger issue I think. The media tend to vastly overstate the influence of Russian money on western economies and western banks because it’s easy to sensationalise and often involves corruption, money laundering, etc but that doesn’t mean it’s remotely comparable in scale with our economic relations with US / EU / China. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Awol Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 Just in case anyone was planning a last minute city break to Kyiv: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trekka Posted February 21, 2022 VT Supporter Share Posted February 21, 2022 21 minutes ago, Awol said: Just in case anyone was planning a last minute city break to Kyiv: Chickens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Awol Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 Just seen a very good suggestion elsewhere, it's worth making sure all your software patches are applied (if, like me, you're pretty casual about updates/digital housekeeping). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr_Dogg Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 21 minutes ago, Awol said: Just seen a very good suggestion elsewhere, it's worth making sure all your software patches are applied (if, like me, you're pretty casual about updates/digital housekeeping). Better update Kaspersky... 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Awol Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 So after Putin’s cameo as Blofeld in that televised national security council meeting… it looks like the route is to recognize Luhansk and Donetsk as independent states, Russian troops will then be invited in to provide security (lol) and occupy those parts of the regions still under Ukrainian control. They clash with the Ukrainian army at the line of contact (in red on map) and Putin has his casus belli to invade the remainder of Ukraine. It may still take another day or two to unfold (depending on whether they see any further value in meeting the Americans again before getting on with it) but by the amount of obviously nonsensical propaganda he and his minions were puking out, they’ve now rolled the pitch with Russia’s public to get going. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 For anyone interested in what was said during the Russian security council meeting, this is a seemingly pretty good thread to read: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheAuthority Posted February 21, 2022 VT Supporter Share Posted February 21, 2022 18 hours ago, ciggiesnbeer said: China is a big investor in Ukraine and a beneficiary of its military industry. China is also in deeply invested in the USA. If the USA economy suffers it would be disastrous for China. China will be desperate to stop Russia starting a war. The biggest losers with war will be Russia then what's left of Ukraine. For the EU/NATO/UK and USA it would be nothing but great news. Our economies will all thrive as we turn away from Russias sole export , raw materials, plenty of people sell oil and gas now. Russia would be doomed into 3rd world status. Russia is already isolated and almost entirely friendless after war they will become the new Saddam Iraq. That doesn't matter to Putin of course, his motives are those of all dictators, power at home. If Russians live in poverty or die by the thousands he doesn't care. To stay in power he needs more and more drastic invented crises to try and fool the populace into more nationalism. Because he cannot be removed by peaceful means and fair elections those around him will start to eye more direct ways to take him out and save Russia. As Churchill observed "Dictators ride to and fro upon tigers which they dare not dismount. And the tigers are getting hungry." Sadly this war will cause a lot of human suffering but the eventual beneficiaries geopolitically are the western European nations and the USA. It has already gone a long way to reinvigorating NATO and as it goes on those bonds will only strengthen. Its also a political gift to Boris and Biden. I have to say I give a lot of credit to the military planners in the USA (I dont credit Biden or Trump). The oddly hasty withdrawal from Afghanistan now looks like a sensible redeployment to focus on the main enemy, Russia. its going to be heartbreaking seeing the suffering in Ukraine and Russia in the next few months and years, but the reality is it simply strengthens the economies and countries in which most of us live. Putin wants to be the worlds new bad guy. Maybe that's what the western world needed? An obvious evil to unify against. This is a very positive take and of course I hope you're right. However, Putin doesn't strike me as dumb enough to start a war that will ultimately benefit the West. I'm not so sure if the US economy suffering will be disastrous for China. China love playing the long game and slowly bleeding the US, even if it causes short term harm to their own economy, is a play I can see easily. There is a lot of speculation over here that the supply chain issues are an extended psy-op campaign by China. Americans are used to getting what they and right now, regardless of how much money you have, luxury items like high end cars are just not available. People who are used to getting what they want act like spoilt children over here when they don't get it. People are angry and wound up - 2 years of pandemic, 8 years of political madness and poison - it feels like a tinder box. Is China holding supplies up as an extended psychological warfare play? I don't know enough about supply chains and manufacturing to make a call, but all I know is that people here are not happy, on edge and it doesn't feel good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted February 21, 2022 Moderator Share Posted February 21, 2022 19 minutes ago, TheAuthority said: Is China holding supplies up as an extended psychological warfare play? I don't know enough about supply chains and manufacturing to make a call, but all I know is that people here are not happy, on edge and it doesn't feel good. It's all down to a particular control chip used in cars, there is a global shortage and it's nothing to do with China 1/3rd of these chips used in cars worldwide are made in one Factory in Japan, it had a huge fire In the US, Samsung and others have manufacturing facilities in Texas. there was a huge storm last winter than knocked out those facilities for a while Taiwan, suffered a big drought and they need lots of water on the manufacturing process That's what has caused the new car shortage, not even COVID related (COVID did have an effect but not as much as the above) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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