VILLAMARV Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 12 minutes ago, AvfcRigo82 said: I think we need at least 45 points minimum from the remaining 57 to play for. That should see us finish 2nd. so 92 in total. I agree I think we'd finish second with it. Hard ask from here imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvfcRigo82 Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 2 minutes ago, VILLAMARV said: so 92 in total. I agree I think we'd finish second with it. Hard ask from here imo. It is a very big ask I agree, but keeping up with the 2ppg ratio and Cardiff & Derby slip up along the way with a bit of luck, we should just sneak it providing we stay consistent from here on in. You would agree it is not that much a tall order considering the squad we have. A few more astute loans of quality can only aide the cause. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VILLAMARV Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 It may well end up a smaller total than normal this year - what i think is we'd be unlucky to miss out with 87/88 points imo. Maybe its more through hope as I could realistically say I could see us winning 12 drawing 4 and losing 3 looking at the games ahead. 14/3/2 would be the most realistic looking formula to 92 from here imo. 45 points from here to hit 92 points 15 wins 0 draws 4 losses 14 wins 3 draws 2 losses 13 wins 6 draws 0 losses 44 points from here to hit 91 points. 14 wins 2 draws 3 losses 13 wins 5 draws 1 loss 43 points from here to hit 90 points. 14 wins 1 draw 4 losses 13 wins 4 draws 2 losses 12 wins 7 draws 0 losses 42 to get to 89 points 14 wins 0 draws 5 losses 13 wins 3 draws 3 losses 12 wins 6 draws 1 loss 41 to get to 88 points 13 wins 2 draws 4 losses 12 wins 5 draws 2 losses 11 wins 8 draws 0 losses 40 to get to 87 points 13 wins 1 draw 5 losses 12 wins 4 draws 3 losses 11 wins 7 draws 1 loss 39 more to reach 86 points 13 wins 0 draws 6 losses 12 wins 3 draws 4 losses 11 wins 6 draws 2 losses 38 to get to 85 points 12 wins 2 draws 5 losses 11 wins 5 draws 3 losses 10 wins 8 draws 1 loss 37 to get to 84 points 12 wins 1 draw 6 losses 11 wins 4 draws 4 losses 10 wins 7 draws 2 losses 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SirSteveUK Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 trents figure quoted above show that the last 4 seasons have been among the highest points totals yet to acheive 2nd spot. 93-89-89-93 It should be noted that the 7 teams that went up as Champs or 2nd place (Burnley went up twice) in those 4 seaons are all still in the PL - with the exception of Boro who came back down. This may account for the high pts totals shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eastie Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 (edited) 7 hours ago, SirSteveUK said: trents figure quoted above show that the last 4 seasons have been among the highest points totals yet to acheive 2nd spot. 93-89-89-93 It should be noted that the 7 teams that went up as Champs or 2nd place (Burnley went up twice) in those 4 seaons are all still in the PL - with the exception of Boro who came back down. This may account for the high pts totals shown. Should also be noted that those teams in 2nd spot finished in the main several points clear of 3rd place and would have also been promoted with less points , ie Brighton were promoted with 93 points but would have been promoted had they finished on 85. Edited January 18, 2018 by Eastie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villa82 Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 (edited) The stats from Villamarv shows how important it is to keep the number of draws low. We need to chase wins, even if that make us lose some games. More than 85 points would be fantastic, and enough for 2th, if we beat the teams above us, Derby and Cardiff. Edited January 18, 2018 by villa82 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lexicon Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 57 minutes ago, Eastie said: Should also be noted that those teams in 2nd spot finished in the main several points clear of 3rd place and would have also been promoted with less points , ie Brighton were promoted with 93 points but would have been promoted had they finished on 85. A very important point tbf. Like many others, didn't occur to me either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rubberman Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 4 minutes ago, lexicon said: A very important point tbf. Like many others, didn't occur to me either. Although this year is looking like it could be a lot closer for 2nd. No-one's pulled clear. I think there will be a fair bit of jostling for position and is likely to come down to no more than a couple of points - hopefully in our favour! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fightoffyour Posted January 18, 2018 VT Supporter Share Posted January 18, 2018 (edited) 2 hours ago, Eastie said: Should also be noted that those teams in 2nd spot finished in the main several points clear of 3rd place and would have also been promoted with less points , ie Brighton were promoted with 93 points but would have been promoted had they finished on 85. Not exactly, because those points that 2nd place dropped have to go somewhere. Suppose that 2nd place had lost a game against 3rd place instead of winning it, then they would have finished on 90 points and 3rd place on 87 instead of 84 (assuming you took 85 as 84+1 rather than GD). Then if the same happened for the other fixture 2nd place would have 87 points and previous 3rd place now 90, so they would finish 2nd and 85 points (not even 87) wouldn't have been enough for the team that originally came 2nd. Granted this is a special case though, and in general your point stands, particularly if there is a large gap between 2nd and 3rd - chances are that points lost would be redistributed elsewhere in the league and would be irrelevant. Edited January 18, 2018 by fightoffyour 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
omariqy Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 End of the day every season is different. We just need to focus on what's in front of us. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dn1982 Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 Previous years mean little. Normally you have 2/3 teams running away with it this year there’s one. If we can get to 2pts game from here on in I’m confident we’ll get 2nd but just as important I think we would win the playoffs as we’d actually be a proper team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nigel Posted January 18, 2018 VT Supporter Share Posted January 18, 2018 It has to be said that with so many team competing (and thus beating each other) should mean that this years 2nd place will probably be a lot lower! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
briny_ear Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 3 hours ago, Eastie said: Should also be noted that those teams in 2nd spot finished in the main several points clear of 3rd place and would have also been promoted with less points , ie Brighton were promoted with 93 points but would have been promoted had they finished on 85. Thanks, was just about to post the same. Trent’s figures show the actual points achieved in 2nd place, not the minimum needed to end there, so paint a more gloomy picture than is actually the case. So Derby are currently 2nd on 52 points. How many do we think they will realistically end up with? Add one and that’s our target. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VILLAMARV Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 On 10/16/2017 at 21:51, markavfc40 said: Crikey I wish I'd never mentioned to finish second you have to finish one point above third and not 2,3,4,5,6,7..... as teams have done in the past. I'd take a friendly wager for charity with anyone now that the team in third this season won't get more than 86 points meaning 87, or 86 on GD, would be enough for second. was kinda why I quoted the Trent quote in the first place like I said to TRO we did this 3 months ago but it did make me fish out that wager there. Nothing to do with me but @markavfc40 I'm starting to think you might be right FWIW. Not about needing one more point than 3rd! but about the 86/87 marker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VILLAMARV Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 although last night I was more 87/88 lol. I think I reckon 87 is where I've gone with all this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terrytini Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 My money is safe, @markavfc40 was wrong then and it’s still wrong !!! Anyway, I thought this was interesting. Im not suggesting anything by it I just thought it was interesting ! Before one “ side” or the other jump on it ! In like for like games in respect of Derby ( i.e where we have had the same fixture and Home or away) there have been 13 results ... We have 4 Wins, 6 Draws, 3 Defeats, scoring 16 conceding 13, 18 Points. Derby have 8 Wins, 3 Draws, 2 Defeats, scoring 26 and conceding 8, netting 27 Points. Derby had a better result than us in 9 of those games, we had a better result twice. On the other hand in the remaining games Derby have more to do to beat our results than we do to beat theirs ( if you are following lol). On the other other hand had the result of our game against Derby simply been reversed we would be 1 Point and 2 goals ahead of them. So there ! Statistics eh ? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
markavfc40 Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 11 minutes ago, VILLAMARV said: was kinda why I quoted the Trent quote in the first place like I said to TRO we did this 3 months ago but it did make me fish out that wager there. Nothing to do with me but @markavfc40 I'm starting to think you might be right FWIW. Not about needing one more point than 3rd! but about the 86/87 marker. I have a friendly £20 wager with @terrytini that the team in second won"t have anymore than 86 points. I am a little more confident than I was a few weeks ago that will be the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VILLAMARV Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 Just now, markavfc40 said: I have a friendly £20 wager with @terrytini that the team in second won"t have anymore than 86 points. I am a little more confident than I was a few weeks ago that will be the case. I'm glad @terrytini is getting the limelight - I keep saying 'we' did this some months ago but of course some months ago when you made this point about 1 more point than 3rd. As it was Terry argued the case (rightly imo) about bad maths and of course your wager was the result. As ever I just hope we go up 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Demitri_C Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 Hmm looking at derby fixtures I have to say its going to be tough. Tgeir two toughest fixtures are away to us and wolves. The rest are home to the likes of Leeds cardiff boro. They do have a local derby away to forest whoch wont be easy as forest will want to do all they can to prevent them going up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
markavfc40 Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 16 minutes ago, VILLAMARV said: I'm glad @terrytini is getting the limelight - I keep saying 'we' did this some months ago but of course some months ago when you made this point about 1 more point than 3rd. As it was Terry argued the case (rightly imo) about bad maths and of course your wager was the result. As ever I just hope we go up Oh yes @terrytini was right as he has just again reminded me :-) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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