dn1982 Posted October 11, 2017 Share Posted October 11, 2017 All i saw last week was fans begging for Blues tickets but 3 days later we go to Preston I wonder how many want to go there. Fir me it's the bigger game. Anything can happen in a derby but we've got 4 tough games coming up. Last month we'd never won a game I didn't think we should. This month we've got games we need to get something out if we are to challenge. Wolves and Preston are as tough away as you get. Fulham at home is the same. Blues who knows what will happen. If we average 2 pts a game from that lot we will be right in it. I'd be happy with 6 if we remain undefeated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romavillan Posted October 11, 2017 VT Supporter Share Posted October 11, 2017 Very much a make or break run coming up, get turned over to many times in the next 4 or 5 games and we'll be miles behind again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vive_La_Villa Posted October 11, 2017 Share Posted October 11, 2017 I think we will go up. But it won't be pretty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barney_avfc Posted October 11, 2017 Share Posted October 11, 2017 The stats-based Sky Sports Predictor is tipping Leeds for Championship glory and for Aston Villa to finish 17th. http://www.skysports.com/football/news/11677/11076315/sky-sports-championship-predictor-where-are-leeds-aston-villa-and-others-tipped-to-finish-this-season Sky and BBC really don't like us do they? We don't care! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Deisler123 Posted October 11, 2017 Popular Post Share Posted October 11, 2017 (edited) 1 hour ago, Barney_avfc said: The stats-based Sky Sports Predictor is tipping Leeds for Championship glory and for Aston Villa to finish 17th. http://www.skysports.com/football/news/11677/11076315/sky-sports-championship-predictor-where-are-leeds-aston-villa-and-others-tipped-to-finish-this-season Sky and BBC really don't like us do they? We don't care! If you look closer at their stats: for us finishing the 1st: 1%; top 2: 3%; top 6: 12%. which means: we win the league: 1% finishing 2nd: 2% finishing 3/4/5/6: 9% in total. Surely the chances should go higher in a non-linear fashion for lower places? Finishing the 2nd 2% and finishing 3-6 only 9% (average speaking, 2.25% for each position between 3-6)? So basically the prediction says that the odds of us finishing 1/2/3/4/5/6 position are almost the same..... One would expect the probability of our final position on the league table to be close to Gaussian distribution (maybe an asymmetrical one), but not this type of shit. This makes no sense at all. Edited October 11, 2017 by Deisler123 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vive_La_Villa Posted October 11, 2017 Share Posted October 11, 2017 5 minutes ago, Deisler123 said: If you look closer at their stats: for us finishing the 1st: 1%; top 2: 3%; top 6: 12%. which means: we win the league: 1% finishing 2nd: 2% finishing 3/4/5/6: 9% in total. Surely the chances should go higher in a non-linear fashion for lower places? Finishing the 2nd 2% and finishing 3-6 only 9% (average speaking, 2.25% for each position between 3-6)? So basically the prediction says that the odds of us finishing 1/2/3/4/5/6 position are almost the same..... One would expect the probability of our final position on the league table to be close to Gaussian distribution (maybe an asymmetrical one), but not this type of shit. This makes no sense at all. You may sound like a nerd but you make a good point. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasoncb Posted October 11, 2017 Share Posted October 11, 2017 2 hours ago, Barney_avfc said: The stats-based Sky Sports Predictor is tipping Leeds for Championship glory and for Aston Villa to finish 17th. http://www.skysports.com/football/news/11677/11076315/sky-sports-championship-predictor-where-are-leeds-aston-villa-and-others-tipped-to-finish-this-season Sky and BBC really don't like us do they? We don't care! Strange how Skybet has us at a 54.5% chance of making the top 6. Not even they listen to this drivel. Its probably for the best as if they offered me 7/1 for villa to finish in the top 6 I'd have no choice but to place my life savings on it for Villa to let me down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deisler123 Posted October 12, 2017 Share Posted October 12, 2017 10 hours ago, Vive_La_Villa said: You may sound like a nerd but you make a good point. Sorry. Got really annoyed by some pundits who always like to see us going down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nigel Posted October 12, 2017 VT Supporter Share Posted October 12, 2017 12 hours ago, Barney_avfc said: The stats-based Sky Sports Predictor is tipping Leeds for Championship glory and for Aston Villa to finish 17th. http://www.skysports.com/football/news/11677/11076315/sky-sports-championship-predictor-where-are-leeds-aston-villa-and-others-tipped-to-finish-this-season Sky and BBC really don't like us do they? We don't care! We will be a bit of an anomaly with the program they use for this IMO. It will work better for teams who have been at this level for a few seasons, and for those who would have a regular spending pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
One For The Road Posted October 12, 2017 Share Posted October 12, 2017 There's no way we will finish 17th. We will be somewhere between 8th and 12th I'd imagine. We would have to have a seriously poor season from now to end up as low as that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VILLAMARV Posted October 12, 2017 Share Posted October 12, 2017 Rubbish on SKY eh? who'd have thought it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jareth Posted October 13, 2017 Share Posted October 13, 2017 On 11/10/2017 at 21:35, Deisler123 said: One would expect the probability of our final position on the league table to be close to Gaussian distribution Don't know when we signed him but I hear he's a good passer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VILLAMARV Posted October 13, 2017 Share Posted October 13, 2017 56 minutes ago, Jareth said: Don't know when we signed him but I hear he's a good passer. He's a bit up and down 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villan_of_oz Posted October 13, 2017 VT Supporter Share Posted October 13, 2017 Cardiff getting done by the scum. We can (and really should) finish in the top 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VILLAMARV Posted October 13, 2017 Share Posted October 13, 2017 Proper 6 pointer tomorrow. Win and we're 2 points off the top, lose and we're 7 points behind. Would be a good day to win after tonight's results 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermon Posted October 13, 2017 Share Posted October 13, 2017 Please just win, could be third, results permitted. Would be buzzing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villarocker Posted October 14, 2017 Share Posted October 14, 2017 On 11/10/2017 at 21:35, Deisler123 said: If you look closer at their stats: for us finishing the 1st: 1%; top 2: 3%; top 6: 12%. which means: we win the league: 1% finishing 2nd: 2% finishing 3/4/5/6: 9% in total. Surely the chances should go higher in a non-linear fashion for lower places? Finishing the 2nd 2% and finishing 3-6 only 9% (average speaking, 2.25% for each position between 3-6)? So basically the prediction says that the odds of us finishing 1/2/3/4/5/6 position are almost the same..... One would expect the probability of our final position on the league table to be close to Gaussian distribution (maybe an asymmetrical one), but not this type of shit. This makes no sense at all. I have little idea what you mean so gave you a trophy for talking complicated shit to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villarocker Posted October 14, 2017 Share Posted October 14, 2017 We have to beat Wolves if we want to show what we are made of. Small Heathens did us a favour last night. Beat Wolves and we can really gain some ground. My only concern is that Bruce will be more mindful of what their attackers can do than what ours can do, if unleashed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dn1982 Posted October 14, 2017 Share Posted October 14, 2017 I'm not sure Blues have done us a favour. Today would've been must win if Cardiff where further away now with them losing and Bristol drawing as long as we don't lose it'll all bunch up anyway. Will that affect Bruces team today? I hope not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jareth Posted October 14, 2017 Share Posted October 14, 2017 Great results last night. It is true that other results don't matter and it is all about what we are doing - BUT - as others have said, a win puts us 2 points off the summit, we haven't been close to the top of anything in decades. Would be a huge psychological boost and could make us a team of believers finally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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