pacbuddies Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 We need 5 teams above us to blow up in the last 6 games. It ain't going to happen. Just finish the season on a high and go up automatically next season as we aren't quite ready for the PL just yet. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JAMAICAN-VILLAN Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 (edited) 1 hour ago, pacbuddies said: We need 5 teams above us to blow up in the last 6 games. It ain't going to happen. Just finish the season on a high and go up automatically next season as we aren't quite ready for the PL just yet. Well they ain't been doing too bad so far, we have gained about 10 points or so on them in the past 4 games, you know this right? Not saying it's going to happen, but that's not necessarily definitive at this point either. EDIT: Gained 8 points on the playoff spots. Level with Norwich: 10th. 2 points behind Derby : 9th . . 4 points off Preston: 8th 7 points off Fulham: 7th. 9 points off Sheff Wed: 6th with 6 games to go. What we do is actually more consequential than what we do, and we are far and away on the best run of form in the League. Some of those teams above us have been having "normal" runs and we have still narrowed the deficit by winning. Edited April 5, 2017 by JAMAICAN-VILLAN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post markavfc40 Posted April 5, 2017 Popular Post Share Posted April 5, 2017 2 hours ago, pacbuddies said: We need 5 teams above us to blow up in the last 6 games. It ain't going to happen. We have to win all our remaining games we all know that but we don’t need the five teams above us to all blow up. We need Norwich to take no more than 17 points in 7 games, we need Derby to take no more than 16 points in 6 games, we need Preston to take no more than 13 points in 6 games. Those three teams could all have excellent finishes to the season by averaging more than 2 points a game from now and we would still over take them by winning all our games. Then we have Fulham and Sheff Wednesday. We need Fulham to take no more than 10 points from 6 games. As we have already taken it as a given to have any chance that we have to win all our remaining games then as they play us that means they have to take no more than 10 points from their other 5 games. Those five games include Norwich, Huddersfield and Sheff Wednesday away. As for Sheff Wednesday we need them to take no more than 8 points from 6 games or 9 if we could overhaul an 8 goal difference. They play Newcastle on Saturday so that could easily become them needing 9 points from 5 games. For them not to do that wouldn’t need them to blow up. This is a side that have taken 4 points from their last six games. I am not suggesting for a second that we have a good chance of doing this but if we win all our remaining games we will certainly be in with a great shout. We just need to continue our form over the last 4 games for another 6 games. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JAMAICAN-VILLAN Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 12 minutes ago, markavfc40 said: We have to win all our remaining games we all know that but we don’t need the five teams above us to all blow up. We need Norwich to take no more than 17 points in 7 games, we need Derby to take no more than 16 points in 6 games, we need Preston to take no more than 13 points in 6 games. Those three teams could all have excellent finishes to the season by averaging more than 2 points a game from now and we would still over take them by winning all our games. Then we have Fulham and Sheff Wednesday. We need Fulham to take no more than 10 points from 6 games. As we have already taken it as a given to have any chance that we have to win all our remaining games then as they play us that means they have to take no more than 10 points from their other 5 games. Those five games include Norwich, Huddersfield and Sheff Wednesday away. As for Sheff Wednesday we need them to take no more than 8 points from 6 games or 9 if we could overhaul an 8 goal difference. They play Newcastle on Saturday so that could easily become them needing 9 points from 5 games. For them not to do that wouldn’t need them to blow up. This is a side that have taken 4 points from their last six games. I am not suggesting for a second that we have a good chance of doing this but if we win all our remaining games we will certainly be in with a great shout. We just need to continue our form over the last 4 games for another 6 games. Better put than I did it, but basically, yeah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villan_of_oz Posted April 5, 2017 VT Supporter Share Posted April 5, 2017 Is this fun or what? I'm absolutely loving it. It has to have been what 8-9 years since there was something exciting for us to follow in the league. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjaacckk91 Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 23 minutes ago, markavfc40 said: We have to win all our remaining games we all know that but we don’t need the five teams above us to all blow up. We need Norwich to take no more than 17 points in 7 games, we need Derby to take no more than 16 points in 6 games, we need Preston to take no more than 13 points in 6 games. Those three teams could all have excellent finishes to the season by averaging more than 2 points a game from now and we would still over take them by winning all our games. Then we have Fulham and Sheff Wednesday. We need Fulham to take no more than 10 points from 6 games. As we have already taken it as a given to have any chance that we have to win all our remaining games then as they play us that means they have to take no more than 10 points from their other 5 games. Those five games include Norwich, Huddersfield and Sheff Wednesday away. As for Sheff Wednesday we need them to take no more than 8 points from 6 games or 9 if we could overhaul an 8 goal difference. They play Newcastle on Saturday so that could easily become them needing 9 points from 5 games. For them not to do that wouldn’t need them to blow up. This is a side that have taken 4 points from their last six games. I am not suggesting for a second that we have a good chance of doing this but if we win all our remaining games we will certainly be in with a great shout. We just need to continue our form over the last 4 games for another 6 games. Exactly this, if you take their current points hauls, get a points per game average and extend that until the end of the season this is what you get. Sheffield weds 75.9 pts Fulham 73.6 pts Preston 70.15pts Derby 67.85pts Norwich 67.23pts Now if Newcastle beat Wednesday(which you'd expect) and we beat Fulham( which we need anyway) Sheffield weds 74.05 pts Fulham 71.80 pts When you realise all these points totals are based on everyone else having very good form it really shows that if we do our job we have a damn good shot. The unlikely part is just us keeping this run going. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ender4 Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 34 minutes ago, markavfc40 said: We have to win all our remaining games we all know that but we don’t need the five teams above us to all blow up. We need Norwich to take no more than 17 points in 7 games, we need Derby to take no more than 16 points in 6 games, we need Preston to take no more than 13 points in 6 games. Those three teams could all have excellent finishes to the season by averaging more than 2 points a game from now and we would still over take them by winning all our games. Then we have Fulham and Sheff Wednesday. We need Fulham to take no more than 10 points from 6 games. As we have already taken it as a given to have any chance that we have to win all our remaining games then as they play us that means they have to take no more than 10 points from their other 5 games. Those five games include Norwich, Huddersfield and Sheff Wednesday away. As for Sheff Wednesday we need them to take no more than 8 points from 6 games or 9 if we could overhaul an 8 goal difference. They play Newcastle on Saturday so that could easily become them needing 9 points from 5 games. For them not to do that wouldn’t need them to blow up. This is a side that have taken 4 points from their last six games. I am not suggesting for a second that we have a good chance of doing this but if we win all our remaining games we will certainly be in with a great shout. We just need to continue our form over the last 4 games for another 6 games. nicely explained. The 0.1% chance in my head just became a 1% chance after reading that. I guess the main question is can we win the next 6 games with no slip-ups. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villan_of_oz Posted April 5, 2017 VT Supporter Share Posted April 5, 2017 4 minutes ago, ender4 said: nicely explained. The 0.1% chance in my head just became a 1% chance after reading that. I guess the main question is can we win the next 6 games with no slip-ups. I don't care of it its only the championship. It would be epic..... It would go down in history ...... If we make the playoffs. I don't profess to have any clue as to what will happen but I'm enjoying thinking about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dont_do_it_doug. Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 I'm starting to feel like we can afford to draw one of those games. Except Fulham, we absolutely must beat Fulham. Momentum is THE thing in football, it breeds confidence. Without it, we might not have seen the game over the line yesterday. We have conceded one goal in 8 games, ONE. That has to be the best in the country. Maybe Europe. The World. If you go into a game of football knowing that no matter how poor you are going forward all you have to do is nick a goal against Burton or Blackburn, or even Reading and your defense will take care of the rest, you've won the mental side of it before a ball has been kicked. It is entirely possible to win 6 games in a row. We've just won 4 on the spin after all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post dont_do_it_doug. Posted April 5, 2017 Popular Post Share Posted April 5, 2017 More importantly, it's entirely possible for us to beat Burton Albion on Saturday. For now, that's all that really matters. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eastie Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 (edited) 19 minutes ago, dont_do_it_doug. said: I'm starting to feel like we can afford to draw one of those games. Except Fulham, we absolutely must beat Fulham. Momentum is THE thing in football, it breeds confidence. Without it, we might not have seen the game over the line yesterday. We have conceded one goal in 8 games, ONE. That has to be the best in the country. Maybe Europe. The World. If you go into a game of football knowing that no matter how poor you are going forward all you have to do is nick a goal against Burton or Blackburn, or even Reading and your defense will take care of the rest, you've won the mental side of it before a ball has been kicked. It is entirely possible to win 6 games in a row. We've just won 4 on the spin after all. For me we need 75 points to have a chance - 73 with our gd would not be enough in my opinion and it may be 75 will not be enough . Extreme long shot but if we can get to the last 3 games with the gap down to 4 points then it could be interesting. Lets not get too carried away though - even burton on Saturday will be a very tough game as will all the last 6 for differing reasons. They are all fighting for something. Edited April 5, 2017 by Eastie 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eastie Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 When is the last time we won 7 in 8 ? I've been following villa nearly 40 years and I can't remember the last time we did this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mjvilla Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 12 hours ago, mykeyb said: Not happening with performances of that nature, Derby and Preston produce displays that will give a better chance of promotion. But then derby gave a performance which was very below average against qpr and still got the points. Very similar to us. It's all about the points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grasshopper Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 Will try to post my predictions till we implode Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KSV Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 You just know we will go on a massive unbeaten run.. get into the players.. win most the games and lose the Championship play off final after winning something like 15 from 16 or whatever it would be to get there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rubberman Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 So on the one hand I think we will need to break our record (from the 1880's) for consecutive league wins which seems unlikely. On the other hand we are facing teams that are, on form over last 6 games, in: 10th (a), 3rd (h), 13th (a), 22nd (h), 20th (a), 5th (h). We're 2nd and also have the best goal difference over that time - though not enough to overhaul Wednesday, PNE or Fulham at the current rate. I'm pretty sure QPR were 2nd in the form table before the game yesterday. Wednesday play 3 teams above them on form, 3 below, though 2 are just below and one of those is away. Same for Fulham. Preston and Derby play 4 teams in worse form and everyone is in better form than Norwich. If all goes to form we'll lose out on GD of 2 goals to Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wilko154 Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 1 minute ago, rubberman said: So on the one hand I think we will need to break our record (from the 1880's) for consecutive league wins which seems unlikely. How many consecutive league wins is the club record? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rubberman Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 From a quick google it seems longest streak was 11 wins - 9 league and 2 FA cup - in 1897. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
markavfc40 Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 4 minutes ago, rubberman said: From a quick google it seems longest streak was 11 wins - 9 league and 2 FA cup - in 1897. Oh well we'll have to wait until the second game of next season to break that record. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calcifer Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 (edited) 2 hours ago, Grasshopper said: Will try to post my predictions till we implode It is On :-) Edited April 5, 2017 by calcifer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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