Junxs Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 Even if we miss out and even get 70 points I'd be delighted, as that would be championship winning form from now until the end of the season. Would be a massive boost going into next season. If we win every game that's 78 points, possibly not enough to make the play offs. So I think that's long gone. Lets just play some nice football and win some matches. W'ev got 1 lucky win then beat relegation fodder and next we play the bottom team. On paper its 3 wins for the first time in 7 years, but in reality we'd still be a bit shit and could easily lose 4 straight games after that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bannedfromHandV Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 23 hours ago, John said: I had a bit of time on my hands this morning as you will see below. The maximum points that the teams who are currently more than 10 points above us can get (that might therefore be within range if we somehow achieve those magical 78 points) along with their remaining games are: Leeds – 97 points (Small Heath (a), Fulham (a), QPR (h), Brighton (h), Reading (a), Brentford (a), Preston (h), Newcastle (a), Wolves (h), Burton (a), Norwich (h) & Wigan (a). Reading – 96 points (Wolves (h), Newcastle (h), Preston (a), Sheff Weds (a), Leeds (h), Blackburn (h), Norwich (a), Villa (a), Rotherham (h), Forest (a), Wigan (h) & Burton (a). Sheffield Wednesday – 94 points (Norwich (h), Burton (h), Villa (a), Reading (h), Barnsley (a), Rotherham (a), Newcastle (h), Cardiff (h), QPR (a), Derby (h), Ipswich (a) & Fulham (h). Fulham – 92 points (Preston (h), Leeds (h), Newcastle (a), Blackburn (a), Wolves (h), Rotherham (a), Derby (a), Ipswich (h), Norwich (a), Villa (h), Huddersfield (a), Brentford (h) & Sheffield Weds (a). My own forecast for the points these teams are likely to end up with from those games (assuming they lose any games against us) are: Leeds 89, Reading 78, Sheffield Weds 77 & Fulham 70. We would need to win all of our remaining games to make top 6 if my forecasts are accurate or hope that Reading or Sheffield Weds go on the sort of run that we had at the start of this year and that we drop a maximum of 2 – 4 points at the very most having made up goal differences of 7 and 14 respectively should it come down to that. Given this, I think the odds are heavily stacked against us getting a top six spot or 78 points (although there still remains a very slender chance to cling to ). My more realistic aim would now be a top ten finish and anything higher than that would be a bonus to take into next season but who wants to be realistic? You're forgetting all the other teams between us and the playoff spots..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PieFacE Posted March 3, 2017 VT Supporter Share Posted March 3, 2017 We're not going to go on some crazy winning streak and we will finish no where near the playoffs. Our away form is shambolic. I don't see why that's about the change. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JAMAICAN-VILLAN Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 Just need Leeds to beat Blues today so we can hopefully leapfrog them tomorrow on our quest to missing out on promotion. Although they will probably get battered and we will still lose knowing us. lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ViewFromT2 Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 4 hours ago, John said: Agreed. I gave the point(s) from these games as I guessed those results would go. I still think we will most likely need 78 points but I like your optimism and hope that say 74 might be enough so all we need to do is go ahead and get them to find out. I looked at the last 10 (or 12 cant remember which) years of tables. Only once in that time was 75pts not enough to finish top 6. That's why I reckon that will be enough....my guess is we'll finish on around 65 ish....which when you consider how many points we have literally thrown away inside the last 10 minutes of games is soul destroying! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JAMAICAN-VILLAN Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 7th would be a great finish at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 We're not going to win every game when we've won twice away all season. To be honest, a top 10 or even top 12 finish and I'd be plenty satisfied. We were 22nd when Bruce took over. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rubberman Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 56 minutes ago, ViewFromT2 said: I looked at the last 10 (or 12 cant remember which) years of tables. Only once in that time was 75pts not enough to finish top 6. That's why I reckon that will be enough....my guess is we'll finish on around 65 ish....which when you consider how many points we have literally thrown away inside the last 10 minutes of games is soul destroying! Wasn't the stat 11 points from goal keeping howlers as well. Could have comfortably made the playoffs with a) a decent keeper and b ) concentrating for the last 5 minutes of games. Lessons for next year I suppose... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JAMAICAN-VILLAN Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 12 minutes ago, rubberman said: Wasn't the stat 11 points from goal keeping howlers as well. Could have comfortably made the playoffs with a) a decent keeper and b ) concentrating for the last 5 minutes of games. Lessons for next year I suppose... Yup, pretty sad when you think about it. Losing out on all that money and being back for a year because of gross negligence in my view. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sne Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 Tbh I'm sure every team could look at some stat and say "if only we hadn't..." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bannedfromHandV Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 Football is littered with ifs and buts, the only single source of truth is the league table. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JAMAICAN-VILLAN Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 8 minutes ago, sne said: Tbh I'm sure every team could look at some stat and say "if only we hadn't..." True, but to be honest, from day 1 I was saying we should have gotten an experienced keeper at the very least! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dont_do_it_doug. Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 (edited) I guess this has really morphed into a 'where will we finish' thread. I would say averaging 2 points from the final 12 games finishing on a healthy 66 points would be a finish to give me plenty of hope going in to next season. 2 points per game will in all likelihood win us the title next year and Bruce has already shown that he can drag that from a lesser squad than this one over a sustained 12 game period. If that does happen, we should perhaps start to view the middle period there as a lesson to be learned and a warning shot, rather than an indicator of what is to come. It will have everyone chomping at the bit for the new season to arrive. Edited March 3, 2017 by dont_do_it_doug. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rubberman Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 15 minutes ago, bannedfromHandV said: Football is littered with ifs and buts, the only single source of truth is the league table. All true, but (another one) however you look at it we have thrown away more careless points than anyone else, particularly RDM's draws. I'd argue we are (at least) 10 points better than our current league position. The table doesn't lie, but it does distort. We aren't relegation fodder. We've screwed up this season royally, and I reckon we'll be kicking ourselves come seasons end at what could have been. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dont_do_it_doug. Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 (edited) 11 minutes ago, rubberman said: All true, but (another one) however you look at it we have thrown away more careless points than anyone else, particularly RDM's draws. I'd argue we are (at least) 10 points better than our current league position. The table doesn't lie, but it does distort. We aren't relegation fodder. We've screwed up this season royally, and I reckon we'll be kicking ourselves come seasons end at what could have been. We were very unlucky at times under RDM previous to him completely losing the plot, the fans, the dressing room and the board in the space of a couple of weeks there. We could conceivably have been another 6 points better off and nobody would have batted an eyelid at it. However he then wouldn't have gotten the chop and nobody will convince me after the farce that transpired that he was the man to take us up. Regardless, our midfield was not good enough to sustain a long term challenge. It still isn't, we are completely anchor-less without Jedinak. He's a big big player for us, figuratively and literally, but we can't rely on him solely for 46 games just as we cant rely on anyone. We must bring in a back up for him, because for me that was Bruce's biggest error, not having that man ready to go on January 1st. That and yes, his reliance on Gabby amongst other things. It was a collective brain fart and all four wheels fell off at once. Hopefully with another dozen games, a summer and a pre season behind him we can iron out the last few wrinkles and make a sustained charge in 17/18. Edited March 3, 2017 by dont_do_it_doug. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sne Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 So Leeds beating Blues (yay!) means we can safely add them to the ever growing list of teams we won't be catching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Posted March 4, 2017 Share Posted March 4, 2017 11 hours ago, bannedfromHandV said: You're forgetting all the other teams between us and the playoff spots..... If only we could. As I said I only listed "the teams who are currently more than 10 points above us". I had a look at the others but could not see any of them getting enough points to finish above us if we could somehow manage to get 74 - 78 points. I felt my post was long enough as it was without listing the likes of Small Heath as an example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nigel Posted March 4, 2017 VT Supporter Share Posted March 4, 2017 21 hours ago, bannedfromHandV said: You're forgetting all the other teams between us and the playoff spots..... I think that IF we were to go on the kind of run talked about here we really wouldnt have to worry about those other clubs! Simple then! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jareth Posted March 4, 2017 Share Posted March 4, 2017 3 points today and we are a fifth of the way to play-offs, based on us winning every game since 2 games ago. The dream is still alive! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KSV Posted March 4, 2017 Share Posted March 4, 2017 So Norwich beat Sheffield. We win. Gap is 13 and we play them next week and beat them. Gap is 10 with 10 to go? Never know.. but we will probably lose to Rotherham.. so...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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