NuneatonVilla Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 Just now, dont_do_it_doug. said: Honestly, all he would have to do is win a few games. What happens if Wagner comes in and relegates us? I never said I wanted Wagner personally, I admit that's to much of a gamble for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dont_do_it_doug. Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 1 minute ago, NuneatonVilla said: I never said I wanted Wagner personally, I admit that's to much of a gamble for me. I'm not anti Wagner either to be honest, was just trying to make a point. Who are you for then? There aren't many in between the two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NuneatonVilla Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 1 minute ago, dont_do_it_doug. said: I'm not anti Wagner either to be honest, was just trying to make a point. Who are you for then? There aren't many in between the two. Grayson for me 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post rubberman Posted October 7, 2016 Popular Post Share Posted October 7, 2016 Given that the chances of promotion are pretty slim already - Automatic is so unlikely and getting into and through the playoffs also a massive task - I'd rather be left with a manager with potential to build us long term than a short term solution for another season. I can see a lot more time being given to Wagner, seen as a project, than Bruce, seen as 'guaranteed' promotion, if we finish somewhere around 8th. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrentVilla Posted October 7, 2016 Moderator Share Posted October 7, 2016 17 minutes ago, dont_do_it_doug. said: You'll be sad to end up with the manager you initially wanted? Unless I've misunderstood, that's weird. Why is it weird to change your mind? Initially I thought Bruce was the best option now I think Wagner would be. I didn't say I would be sad if we got Bruce, I said sadly I thought that is who will get rather than Wagner there is a small bit important difference between the two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Godders Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 21 minutes ago, praisedmambo said: I'd rather take a 75.02% chance of promotion under Wagner rather than the 60.53% chance of promotion under Bruce. On another note the 35% chance of promotion under McClaren is, imo, laughably high. I mean—who actually makes up these percentages? Ok that was my attempt at satire. But you're making up figures. It's impressive how well Wagner has Huddersfield playing and there is no mathematical equation on this planet that could compare Bruce and Wagner's chances of getting us promoted. Ok maybe I can do it...whoever it is we have about a 15% chance at promotion at best, I think. Oh I'm sorry. I'd rather have Bruce as he gives a much better chance of going up than not, as opposed to Wagner where he's 50/50 at best to get us up. Of course both could be rubbish for us though. That easier to understand? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post TrentVilla Posted October 7, 2016 Moderator Popular Post Share Posted October 7, 2016 18 minutes ago, dont_do_it_doug. said: When you call Wagner and the like 'long term' you must also account for the fact that there's a much higher risk of failure in both the short AND the long term. It should be Bruce (less risk) or Wagner (higher risk). The only reward on my mind right now is being back in the PL. You are correct. However it is hard to view Bruce as being anything other than another short term appointment which is why I'd prefer Wagner even with the greater risk attached. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJ Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 I admire Wagner, and believe he has a lot of potential. He seems dedicated, and seems to want to be a manager because he wants to achieve and maybe build something with Huddersfield, rather than being in it for the pay check. However, if Tony throws money at him and he comes to Villa, then I believe he has sold out on those principles. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dont_do_it_doug. Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 1 minute ago, TrentVilla said: Why is it weird to change your mind? Initially I thought Bruce was the best option now I think Wagner would be. I didn't say I would be sad if we got Bruce, I said sadly I thought that is who will get rather than Wagner there is a small bit important difference between the two. Then I misunderstood! Though I feel if Bruce was your gut instinct, you should be pleased if we get him. IMO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dont_do_it_doug. Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 (edited) 4 minutes ago, TrentVilla said: You are correct. However it is hard to view Bruce as being anything other than another short term appointment which is why I'd prefer Wagner even with the greater risk attached. Yeah I think I agree with that. I'm just very risk averse at the moment, I think the club should be too. However if they get a chance to talk to Wagner, or whoever, and he completely wow's them then I'm not going to be gutted about it. The ideal scenario is Dyche who is somewhere between the two. I believe he's on the list, but I would think it's a hell of a reach. Edit - when you say "another short term appointment" though, I don't really know what you meant by "another". We haven't had a manager for longer than a few months for almost 2 years. Edited October 7, 2016 by dont_do_it_doug. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jareth Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 Surely the longer it takes the less chance its bruce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rodders0223 Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 50 minutes ago, Gary Thomas said: Thought he was there 18months - 13th first season, sacked second? Whatever, doesn't matter. Some want Bruce (short-term fix), some want Wagner or other similar type (long-term), lets see what the board decide. I'll get behind whoever with varying levels of excitement. Results and performances on the pitch will be the ultimate decider. We always want them long term, until they turn out to be complete shit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeyAnty Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 (edited) I always thought Bruce was a lucky manager if there is such a thing. As someone mention his style could be what we need, a big change from what we have had for 4-5 seasons. Let the long balls begin Edited October 7, 2016 by HeyAnty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrentVilla Posted October 7, 2016 Moderator Share Posted October 7, 2016 11 minutes ago, dont_do_it_doug. said: Then I misunderstood! Though I feel if Bruce was your gut instinct, you should be pleased if we get him. IMO. I would just less so than if we got Wagner, I'd still be happier than if we appointed any of the other names linked or we still had RDM. Much like people from Coventry, everything is relative. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Richard Posted October 7, 2016 Author Share Posted October 7, 2016 It's killing the club and it's killing the game. Short termism 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PieFacE Posted October 7, 2016 VT Supporter Share Posted October 7, 2016 Bruce would just be soooooooooooooooo boring.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
praisedmambo Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 (edited) 31 minutes ago, Godders said: Oh I'm sorry. I'd rather have Bruce as he gives a much better chance of going up than not, as opposed to Wagner where he's 50/50 at best to get us up. Of course both could be rubbish for us though. That easier to understand? Nope. You still made the bold bit up. This isn't really a big deal, but nobody can say for certain that Bruce is a safe bet, or even relatively safer. Hull finished 4th in the season they were promoted—in their relegation season they were more comparable to Norwich and Newcastle than us (who are 2nd and 3rd now). Even Di Matteo managed to get a comparable-to-Hull-Norwich-Newcastle WBA promoted in second place. Wagner has taken Huddersfield, who have been a low-end championship team for years, up to 1st with barely any money spent. He's built that from nothing—Bruce, when Hull were promoted, still had some decent premiership players. I know it's only early in the season and anything could happen to Huddersfield, but there is no way anybody isn't making it up if they say Bruce is a more of a sure bet than Wagner to take us up. Edited October 7, 2016 by praisedmambo 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gary Thomas Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 (edited) 51 minutes ago, dont_do_it_doug. said: When you call Wagner and the like 'long term' you must also account for the fact that there's a much higher risk of failure in both the short AND the long term. It should be Bruce (less risk) or Wagner (higher risk). The only reward on my mind right now is being back in the PL. Not trying to convince anyone because I don't think I can - too many variables and unknowns. But FWIW I think - but can't prove - that Wagner is a better managerial prospect so i don't see him a much higher risk. In my mind we have to account for what happens IF we get promoted in 2017-8 (unlikely this year if not impossible). With Bruce the scenario I see is we have a team built in his image (through three transfer windows) but we part ways after promotion and have a massive rebuild on our hands to stay up. That is a big risk to me. IF we get promoted with Wagner I think it is more likely to we have a manager that will stay and a team that could compete in the PL with some quality additions, so less disruption and less risk in my eyes. I know the common view is we shouldn't think beyond promotion, but I don't share that way of thinking. I don't want to bet the farm to go up and come down. If history has taught us anything it is that massive rebuilds rarely work. I want to bet the farm on going up and being in a position to stay up with the same manager and core players. I know you and others will not share my view, but that's how I see it. Edited October 7, 2016 by Gary Thomas 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Richard Posted October 7, 2016 Author Share Posted October 7, 2016 3 minutes ago, Gary Thomas said: Not trying to convince anyone because I don't think I can - too many variables. But I think - but can't prove - that Wagner is a better managerial prospect so i don't see him a much higher risk. In my mind we have to account for what happens IF we get promoted in 2017-8 (unlikely this year if not impossible). With Bruce the scenario I see is we have a team built in his image (through three transfer windows) but we part ways after promotion and have a massive rebuild on our hands to stay up. That is a big risk to me. IF we get promoted with Wagner I think it is more likely to we have a manager that will stay and a team that could compete in the PL with some quality additions, so less disruption and less risk in my eyes. I know the common view is we shouldn't think beyond promotion, but I don't share that way of thinking. I don't want to bet the farm to go up and come down. If history has taught us anything it is that massive rebuilds rarely work. I want to bet the farm on going up and been in a position to stay up with the same manager and core players. This for me. If promotion is the thing people want then we have to look at what happens after promotion. To do anything else is far too short term and will not help the club at all. Very very foolish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villastine Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 19 minutes ago, Richard said: It's killing the club and it's killing the game. Short termism Well you can have a long term plan and continually change manager. A lot of people believe 3 years should be a managers max, something Pep follows. Watford use short term targets in their long term view. The Watford board would hire the likes of Bruce or McCarthy, fund them to get promoted and then sack them immediately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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