Vive_La_Villa Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 I pray we get Wagner. Oh to watch a team that actually plays a certain way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BOF Posted October 4, 2016 Moderator Share Posted October 4, 2016 3 minutes ago, Woodytom said: Ok, first of all I appreciate the effort. I tried to work it out myself but I couldn't be arsed. However, they're completely unrealistic. For instance, I think it's more feasible for us to gain a 60% win ratio than us to gain a 40% ratio but remain unbeaten. I get what your saying in that 'it's possible', but in terms of likelihood, the chances are very very slim indeed. Again, we're actually agreeing here. We probably will have a higher win percentage if and when we climb the table. I was not demonstrating that it is feasible for my scenario to play out. I was pointing out that anyone saying we need [insert high win percentage] to be promoted isn't even remotely correct in the worst scenario, never mind in the others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Woodytom Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 A team with plan A sounds great. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rubberman Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Just now, BOF said: Again, we're actually agreeing here. We probably will have a higher win percentage if and when we climb the table. I was not demonstrating that it is feasible for my scenario to play out. I was pointing out that anyone saying we need [insert high win percentage] to be promoted isn't even remotely correct in the worst scenario, never mind in the others. Yeah - 60% win from here would give us 73 points if we lost all the other 14 games. That's still one hell of a turnround needed whatever the mix - we need a lot of wins. Soon. Then again - I expected us to be able to do that before the season kicked off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Woodytom Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 2 minutes ago, BOF said: Again, we're actually agreeing here. We probably will have a higher win percentage if and when we climb the table. I was not demonstrating that it is feasible for my scenario to play out. I was pointing out that anyone saying we need [insert high win percentage] to be promoted isn't even remotely correct in the worst scenario, never mind in the others. Ok that makes more sense now. At least we're not quite at the stage where we are working out survival chances. Think we were this time last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blandy Posted October 4, 2016 Moderator Share Posted October 4, 2016 17 minutes ago, Mammoth10 said: 68pts required (17 wins = 51pts + 17) = 48.6% win rate or winning 23 and losing 12, which is a 67% win rate. As discussed, this is not saying it's the only way to do it, just that adding in some defeats obviously ups the req'd win rate. Realistically we're going to need to win 19 or 20 games to get in the play offs. Which seems unlikely to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vive_La_Villa Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Wagner odds slashed. I'm convinced it will be him and he will also get us to playoffs this season. You heard it here first. #wagnerlove Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sne Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 7 minutes ago, Vive_La_Villa said: Wagner odds slashed. I'm convinced it will be him and he will also get us to playoffs this season. You heard it here first. #wagnerlove Que the music: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dounavilla Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 13 minutes ago, Vive_La_Villa said: Wagner odds slashed. I'm convinced it will be him and he will also get us to playoffs this season. You heard it here first. #wagnerlove 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sidcowans21 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Wagner now 11/10 with Betfair Exchange. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GENTLEMAN Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Looks like it will be Wagner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gary Thomas Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 29 minutes ago, BOF said: What's this about required win rates for the new manager? Let's take a looksee. Points required to get into playoffs in past 7 seasons 15/16 - 74pts 14/15 - 78 13/14 - 72 12/13 - 68 11/12 - 75 10/11 - 75 09/10 - 70 1. Maximum - 78pts 2. Average - 73 3. Minimum - 68 Games left - 35 Points so far - 10 To at least reach the points required in the above scenarios 1. 68pts required (17 wins = 51pts + 17) = 48.6% win rate 2. 63pts (14 wins = 42pts + 21) = 40.0% 3. 58pts (12 wins = 36pts + 22) = 34.3% So even in the most difficult year to reach the playoffs, 14/15, at this point in the season we would not have needed a 50% win rate. That's not to say it will be remotely easy to do. Just that it's not quite as insurmountable as is being made out. Plus I still probably foolishly think this squad once it is used right will steamroll sides too. Good analysis, but a tad optimistic? I cannot see 68pts being enough looking at recent points totals (last 3 years). I would say 74 points is a more realistic target. To get that we need to win 19 games from now (54% win rate), draw say 7 and lose only 9 - that would put us on 74pts which would give us a competitive total, but one that would not have gotten us over the line in 14/15. There are all sorts of permutations, but I fear it may be more difficult than you suggest, certainly a 40% win rate won't do it imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vive_La_Villa Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 23 minutes ago, sne said: Que the music: This should be the music at the unveiling and at home games. This is the most excited I've been over a new manager since MON! It better be him now! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Woodytom Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Based on what. Odds getting slashed? Wouldn't imagine there's that many ppl betting on it. Certainly won't take much to make a difference at them odds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
avfc1982 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 8 minutes ago, GENTLEMAN said: Looks like it will be Wagner. Based on what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gary Thomas Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 (edited) Right I have just seen this post and I am desperately hoping this means we have appointed Wagner......let me go check/ Edit. Shit no. Edited October 4, 2016 by Gary Thomas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NottingVilla Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Nah there's no money in the betfair market Wanger and Bruce same odds but it's flaky money which indicates nobody knows nothing, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post PieFacE Posted October 4, 2016 VT Supporter Popular Post Share Posted October 4, 2016 (edited) Welcome Wagner. This is based on nothing other than wanting to be seen as ITK. Edited October 4, 2016 by PieFacE 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AshVilla Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Is it going to be..... WAGNER? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alreadyexists Posted October 4, 2016 VT Supporter Share Posted October 4, 2016 I'd not even really heard of Wagner until people suggested him in here. Isn't he just another gamble? It's been so long since we had a manager that had some credentials. I know Huddersfield are doing well, but how much of that is down to him? All genuine questions by the way not having a dig at anyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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