HanoiVillan Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 4 hours ago, snowychap said: The referendum result is not binding. Edit: If what you were saying is that you can't see the government going against the result then I agree but it isn't because they must abide by it. I know it's not binding, but sometimes when the probability of something is sufficiently close to zero I say 'it's not going to happen'. There would be riots in the streets if a timetable for invoking article 50 wasn't released fairly promptly. As I say, the real debate, in the event of a Leave vote, is going to be about how far the mandate extends. Do we have a mandate to leave the EEA to curb immigration, even though that means no single market access? That's where the legitimate disagreements will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chindie Posted June 23, 2016 VT Supporter Share Posted June 23, 2016 My job allows me access to financial insight from a number of companies on outlooks for different regions and economies. One of the points of contention in regards to the UK was thoughts on 'Brexit' possibilities. All of the insights I have looked at conclude it'll be detrimental to our economy to some degree. And whilst a weakened pound may benefit in the short term, consider why not every nation on the planet with economic issues is desperately weakening their currency in the long term. It tends to be a short term boon. A Leave vote could see 10 years of negotiation to get trade deals in place and operational 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonyh29 Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 Just now, HanoiVillan said: To turn that around, why are people so optimistic that we're going to get a brilliant and favourable from 27 other member countries on single market access? it doesn't work like that , I asked first .. and if VT has taught me anything it's that your not actually interested in the answer I give anyway but , what the heck .... the current EU position has been to put a few of the current unfavourable proposals on hold , they decided ( all a coincidence of course) to allow Cameron's benefit proposal through (even though we've had a remain video exposing that there is no benefit tourism going on ) but they have also given off the not so subtle message of trying to bully the UK into a remain vote ( Project Spite ,no concessions , no way back etc) If there was a leave vote our withdrawal changes the whole dynamic on the EU .... Ignoring the absurd claims of £350m , Remember we pay more in that we take out , so someone has to take up that shortfall , or those that take out may find they get less ..either way it impacts the remaining 27 nations . There was also a pie chart thingy I saw a few days ago that shows the impact of our withdrawal on German Influence (was an interesting article , I didn't link it at the time as it would have just been dismissed as a German ruling Europe paranoia type thing ) , it changes the dynamic somewhat I'm fairly some of the smaller members may not be overly keen on that outcome ( possibly not the French either) Thus , I don't think the EU wants us to go and I'm not sure they can afford for us to go .... hence what could they give that Parliament could sell to the public back home ... My guess would be end of free movement , which by default also kills the Turkey question for when they join ( presumably the irony that we paid Turkey to take Syrian migrants off Europe's shores only for them to come back legally at some point in the future wont be lost on everyone , even though I stress it isn't an issue in itself that I'm overly fussed about , I'm just throwing it out there as part of my cynical observation on life ( see banker theory in a previous post) ) so then of course the dialogue changes a little ..and as a result , who knows maybe we get that European Utopia that everyone is telling me Jeremy Corbyn has been in favour of all his life of course it might not play out like and we could all be doomed , but at least then the self righteous social media sneering won't have been in vain and they can enjoy terrling us they were right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonyh29 Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 24 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said: I'm not an expert in economics. However, experts in economics have in fact considered this referendum! I posted a table with their expectations about three pages ago. Suffice to say, they seem to have concluded that leaving sure wouldn't help our economy. same experts that predicted our dire future if we didn't adopt the Euro , or different experts ? the economic argument wasn't the point being made though , the point I was making was a cynical view on the way the market moved and recovered , something that had I posted in the Tory bashing thread 6 months ago would have got 79,000 likes and a standing ovation from the crowd ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hippo Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 Whatever our vote I think the EU has run its course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 1 minute ago, tonyh29 said: same experts that predicted our dire future if we didn't adopt the Euro , or different experts ? the economic argument wasn't the point being made though , the point I was making was a cynical view on the way the market moved and recovered , something that had I posted in the Tory bashing thread 6 months ago would have got 79,000 likes and a standing ovation from the crowd ... Fair enough, maybe I misunderstood your argument. Though if you want comprehensive lists of which economists backed which position on Euro membership, you need someone with more free time than me. 8 minutes ago, tonyh29 said: it doesn't work like that , I asked first .. and if VT has taught me anything it's that your not actually interested in the answer I give anyway but , what the heck .... the current EU position has been to put a few of the current unfavourable proposals on hold , they decided ( all a coincidence of course) to allow Cameron's benefit proposal through (even though we've had a remain video exposing that there is no benefit tourism going on ) but they have also given off the not so subtle message of trying to bully the UK into a remain vote ( Project Spite ,no concessions , no way back etc) If there was a leave vote our withdrawal changes the whole dynamic on the EU .... Ignoring the absurd claims of £350m , Remember we pay more in that we take out , so someone has to take up that shortfall , or those that take out may find they get less ..either way it impacts the remaining 27 nations . There was also a pie chart thingy I saw a few days ago that shows the impact of our withdrawal on German Influence (was an interesting article , I didn't link it at the time as it would have just been dismissed as a German ruling Europe paranoia type thing ) , it changes the dynamic somewhat I'm fairly some of the smaller members may not be overly keen on that outcome ( possibly not the French either) Thus , I don't think the EU wants us to go and I'm not sure they can afford for us to go .... hence what could they give that Parliament could sell to the public back home ... My guess would be end of free movement , which by default also kills the Turkey question for when they join ( presumably the irony that we paid Turkey to take Syrian migrants off Europe's shores only for them to come back legally at some point in the future wont be lost on everyone , even though I stress it isn't an issue in itself that I'm overly fussed about , I'm just throwing it out there as part of my cynical observation on life ( see banker theory in a previous post) ) so then of course the dialogue changes a little ..and as a result , who knows maybe we get that European Utopia that everyone is telling me Jeremy Corbyn has been in favour of all his life of course it might not play out like and we could all be doomed , but at least then the self righteous social media sneering won't have been in vain and they can enjoy terrling us they were right Tony, I disagree with your conclusions with great regularity, but it's not true that I'm not interested in them. This is still one of those occasions when I disagree. I think you're massively overestimating the strength of our hand post Brexit, but even more importantly than that, even if everything went to plan and it turned out that we held all the cards and actually all of these European countries could be corralled on every issue, it would still take years. Far more than the two years allowed by Article 50. The Canadian deal, held up as some kind of model, is far far simpler and has been being discussed for around a decade now. We'd be looking at at least that long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisp65 Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 4 minutes ago, tonyh29 said: same experts that predicted our dire future if we didn't adopt the Euro and it's like Michael Gove said only yesterday, the nazi's used experts look where it got them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RimmyJimmer Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 This referendum has certainly split opinions on all sides of the house. Be interesting to know who people voted for in the last general election and how they have voted on eu. Tory/out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonyh29 Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 7 minutes ago, Chindie said: A Leave vote could see 10 years of negotiation to get trade deals in place and operational could is the key word here I guess The Lisbon treaty has a clause that states the EU must make a trade agreement with a country which leaves the EU ,I doubt it says how quickly though ! But , one of the examples seems to be Canada and how it's taken 7 years to get their deal with Europe *... in the same breath we hear how all 28 nations have to agree to any deal in the EU .. Now we often struggle to get something agreed in our Boardroom with 3 of us yet alone 28 so I think we can all imagine why it's taken so long to reach a deal .... * it was agreed in principal in 2013 but not yet signed best I can tell ? but in it's very very simplest form , there is already a basis of a trade agreement with Canada and Europe , how long would it take to ratify the basis of that deal when only 2 parties have to agree instead of 29 .... ditto all the other Nations that aren't EU sure EU trade might dip but whilst we negotiate with our now worthless £ we can fill our boots exporting to the rest of the world Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest av1 Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 Voted out but i would put my mortgage on remain winning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonyh29 Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 10 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said: Fair enough, maybe I misunderstood your argument. Though if you want comprehensive lists of which economists backed which position on Euro membership, you need someone with more free time than me. Tony, I disagree with your conclusions with great regularity, but it's not true that I'm not interested in them. This is still one of those occasions when I disagree. I think you're massively overestimating the strength of our hand post Brexit, but even more importantly than that, even if everything went to plan and it turned out that we held all the cards and actually all of these European countries could be corralled on every issue, it would still take years. Far more than the two years allowed by Article 50. The Canadian deal, held up as some kind of model, is far far simpler and has been being discussed for around a decade now. We'd be looking at at least that long. I wasn't meaning you specifically , but thanks for reading I sorta meant that views are entrenched , If I argued the British Empire was a great thing , do you think I could convert anyone that thinks it was a blight on the world , would they even remotely be interested in the argument I put forward ... the only way you get real engagement on this forum is to use bad grammar or spelling mistakes (both of which I happen to have mastered ) or pedantic counter claims when you state a fact that people can't argue against ( or get bored of trying to argue against ) Now I'm sure there will be counter claims of Ahhh but , you're the same ... but a few days / weeks ago I was voting In , I had seen an argument that swayed me (annoyingly it was from an American outlet ,) alas they peaked too early and I was swayed back towards out ... I may not be a smart man and I view the world through very simplistic terms so maybe the fact I could be swayed so easily is proof that I shouldn't be allowed a vote either 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 Another relevant point re trade deals which I haven't seen mentioned is that Britain, as a country, doesn't have very many trained international trade negotiators, yet we're potentially looking at having to write free trade deals with not only the EU, but approximately sixty other countries who have various deals with the EU and which would be invalidated by our exit from the union. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonyh29 Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 (edited) 10 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said: Another relevant point re trade deals which I haven't seen mentioned is that Britain, as a country, doesn't have very many trained international trade negotiators, yet we're potentially looking at having to write free trade deals with not only the EU, but approximately sixty other countries who have various deals with the EU and which would be invalidated by our exit from the union. this is where I come into my own ... before we issue our notice , we log onto the S drive , download a word copy of every trade deal the EU has in place onto a USB stick and swallow the USB stick .... wait for nature to run its course and then we use find an replace and remove " United States of Europe " and replace with " England and its subsidiaries" and then send them via email to all 60 countries simples Edited June 23, 2016 by tonyh29 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisp65 Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 it's of no relevance now, but there was a little vox pop on the local regional news channel last night, two young women booth asked how they were going to vote and why First young woman looked normal, had normal hair, can't remember what she was wearing but I'm conjuring up images of spectacles and a duffle coat and a CND badge. She said that we needed to make alliances to protect workers rights, we needed to maintain food hygene regulations and we would still need to build cars to proper standards, so she had weighed up the options, didn't want to risk a leap in to the unknown and would vote remain. Second young woman. All I can remember about her was she had one of those faces where she'd drawn big eyebrows on her forehead. She said she'd watched a bit of one of the debates, it was all 'weird', but she thought Boris Johnson had been the most entertaining so she was voting for him. I can only imagine her disappointment today, if she remembers to vote and realises 'Boris' isn't one of the options. That's a fairly true story that. Enhanced very slightly. But basically true. I laughed out loud as I sat their with my TV dinner and gravy stained air of superiority. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Paddywhack Posted June 23, 2016 Popular Post Share Posted June 23, 2016 My dad wants out, but he's voting remain for me and my sister who are both in. He said he wouldn't be around to see any of the changes anyway so he's voting what his kids want. I thought it was pretty sweet, it choked me a little when he told me. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjmooney Posted June 23, 2016 VT Supporter Share Posted June 23, 2016 1 hour ago, RimmyJimmer said: This referendum has certainly split opinions on all sides of the house. Be interesting to know who people voted for in the last general election and how they have voted on eu. Tory/out Labour/Remain. However, in the original referendum on joining it, I voted to join. Labour at the time didn't want us to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blandy Posted June 23, 2016 Author Moderator Share Posted June 23, 2016 1 hour ago, tonyh29 said: same experts that predicted our dire future if we didn't adopt the Euro , or different experts ? No doubt some of them are, but the UK Treasury (obviously) was against joining the Euro, warning that it would be bad (despite then PM Blair's enthusiasm for doing so) and is warning Brexit would be bad. So the charge of "all the experts who say stay said join the Euro" is untrue. There are others too, though I don't have time right now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonyh29 Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 23 minutes ago, blandy said: No doubt some of them are, but the UK Treasury (obviously) was against joining the Euro, warning that it would be bad (despite then PM Blair's enthusiasm for doing so) and is warning Brexit would be bad. So the charge of "all the experts who say stay said join the Euro" is untrue. There are others too, though I don't have time right now... not sure anyone has said " all experts" FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lapal_fan Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 14 minutes ago, tonyh29 said: not sure anyone has said " all experts" FWIW IMPLIED Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AshVilla Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 Why do polling stations booth's have pencils and not pen? I'm not sure if they are all like that but i'm glad i took a pen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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