The now-enacted will of (some of) the people

[Chindie]

They don't need to worry about regulation. They already have to match EU regulation to offer services there and there won't be 'a bonfire of the regulations' when we leave, nor are we at likely to instill more.

They also don't need to remind the government of anything. Banking is Britain's business now. The sector brings in double digit billions of tax. Chuck in financial services generally and it's an unignorable sector. The sector also does about 20% of its business with the EU, according to the report in my inbox this afternoon. They aren't going to wave that goodbye because they really like Canary Wharf.

If they do not get passporting rights, they will shift elsewhere, and it won't just be boohoo for Billy Big Bollocks with the £20k watch.

[chrisp65]

3 hours ago, blandy said:

At the moment....

Canary Wharf didn't exist as a financial hub not so long back. That's the thing really. There (probably) won't be a sudden mass exodus, what will probably happen is that there will be a gradually migration of work to other places over a decade or longer, and in (say) 15 years, London will still be doing bnaking, but maybe a third less than now, and other places will have grown significantly. All that unless the 'tards in our Gov't somehow metamorphose from blinkered 'tards into superb negotiators and visionaries.

Brain of Britain Chris Grayling was on the TV yesterday to assure us all that the finance and banking balance of power simply couldn't shift to Frankfurt as they don't have the buildings or the infrastructure.

There you go, an assurance from Chris Grayling that the Germans can't plan, can't get organised, can't build big buildings and don't have wifi.

I'm convinced of his argument and I expect you are too.

Personally, I'm ambivalent in the long term on lots of the detail of Brexit. I just worry about the calibre of our 'team'.

[Awol]

1 hour ago, chrisp65 said:

Brain of Britain Chris Grayling was on the TV yesterday to assure us all that the finance and banking balance of power simply couldn't shift to Frankfurt as they don't have the buildings or the infrastructure.

There you go, an assurance from Chris Grayling that the Germans can't plan, can't get organised, can't build big buildings and don't have wifi.

I'm convinced of his argument and I expect you are too.

Personally, I'm ambivalent in the long term on lots of the detail of Brexit. I just worry about the calibre of our 'team'.

Calibre of the team - absolutely. It's a cliche but we suffer from political Pygmy syndrome. It's clear the rest of the West has similar problems & that is the core of this malaise.

What neither the Germans nor the French can address in short order is the deep level of specialized expertise in the financial markets. It's human capital that matters rather than knocking up some 'smart' buildings.

[OutByEaster?]

It's easier for the banks to change the country than to change country. 

 

[Awol]

Surprised this hasn't been mentioned yet but UK GDP in Q3 was +0.5%.

The experts were telling us before the referendum we would see immediate & significant GDP shrinkage in Q3 if the UK voted for Brexit.

So just to confirm when Remainers incredulously asked whether the Treasury, BoE, IMF, OECD, World Bank, coalition of Remain economists et al. could really all be wrong, Leavers were correct to say "yes, it's scaremongering". 

Not trying to gloat but it's worth noting. Of course things could still all go terribly wrong, but so far almost all of the Remain camp's threats have proven to be empty.

 

[Seat68]

The minor stuff that impacts me has happened though, rising of prices due to the very weak pound, friends being made redundant, rise of xenophobia. The average man on the street doesn't see the day to day effects of a rise in GDP.

[chrisp65]

26 minutes ago, Seat68 said:

The minor stuff that impacts me has happened though, rising of prices due to the very weak pound, friends being made redundant, rise of xenophobia. The average man on the street doesn't see the day to day effects of a rise in GDP.

It will be ten years before anybody can have a crack at trying to work out if we are better off or worse off. All we are seeing at the moment is a few months of conjecture at where it all might go. It's certainly 2 years too early to be smug or frightened as we haven't left. We haven't even officially said we are leaving. We've said we are going to be announcing that we are going to be leaving.

This has caused a sterling wobble. Great news for exporters of stuff made in the UK from UK sourced raw materials, great for exporters of services. Unfortunately, we import more than we export. So I wouldn't put too much emphasis either way on some quarterly trade figures.

What I'm seeing in the short term, is contracts not quite being awarded as companies just want to wait one more month to see where everything is heading. Then one more month. Then just one more. We've let 2 people go because of this.

My Aviva savings plan of 5 years to put my nipper through Uni was apparently largely based on property prices. It was frozen in the summer and I can't get at it. As of last week they cannot tell me how much it is now worth or when the fund will be reopened. This has cost me personally a significant amount of money. But people with a little money shouldn't really moan about 'savings' problems.

I was invited to a BBQ two or three weeks ago, to welcome the first four refugee families to the Vale. Then, 24 hours after the invite went out, it was cancelled as the council decided it was inappropriate to spend money on a welcome committee for refugees, 'People' might not like it. Then they reinstated it but asked people to keep it quiet and not make a big deal about it. A sort of secret welcome party, in a park. I decided not to go. Piss ups and breweries were springing to mind.

But all of that is stuff that may or may not have happened anyway. Yes we've had the Wales Secretary rowing back on his promise that the area will get match funding for the EU money lost. But hey, he's a politician and he lied. It's hardly news.

Ten years. Then we can look at where we are at and argue over whether we'd have been somewhere better or worse if the vote had been different.

In the meantime, I suspect the rich list will go largely unchanged. I suspect the list of politicians in Westminster will go largely unchanged. I suspect our ability to have a bit of an uninformed dabble in other people's wars will go largely unchanged. Who knows, in ten years we could even be close to an absolutely definitive decision or where around the M25 to stick an extra runway.

 

[Demitri_C]

2 hours ago, Awol said:

Surprised this hasn't been mentioned yet but UK GDP in Q3 was +0.5%.

The experts were telling us before the referendum we would see immediate & significant GDP shrinkage in Q3 if the UK voted for Brexit.

So just to confirm when Remainers incredulously asked whether the Treasury, BoE, IMF, OECD, World Bank, coalition of Remain economists et al. could really all be wrong, Leavers were correct to say "yes, it's scaremongering". 

Not trying to gloat but it's worth noting. Of course things could still all go terribly wrong, but so far almost all of the Remain camp's threats have proven to be empty.

 

The thing is AWOL we haven't actually left yet, I suspect it won't look as healthy once we are gone 

[darrenm]

3 hours ago, Awol said:

Surprised this hasn't been mentioned yet but UK GDP in Q3 was +0.5%.

The experts were telling us before the referendum we would see immediate & significant GDP shrinkage in Q3 if the UK voted for Brexit.

So just to confirm when Remainers incredulously asked whether the Treasury, BoE, IMF, OECD, World Bank, coalition of Remain economists et al. could really all be wrong, Leavers were correct to say "yes, it's scaremongering". 

Not trying to gloat but it's worth noting. Of course things could still all go terribly wrong, but so far almost all of the Remain camp's threats have proven to be empty.

 

Isn't that because the pound is weak so we're exporting more?

Surely that means that we're right on the edge of a massive crash when we can't afford to buy anything in?

I wouldn't be so smug yet.

[blandy]

3 hours ago, Awol said:

Not trying to gloat but it's worth noting. Of course things could still all go terribly wrong, but so far almost all of the Remain camp's threats have proven to be empty.

Not trying to be a smart arse or anything, but it's worth noting that not only has Brexit not happened yet, but the 2 year process to start brexit hasn't even started yet. Could this be a factor in the consequences of brexit that we were warned about also not actually having happened yet?

[Demitri_C]

7 minutes ago, blandy said:

Not trying to be a smart arse or anything, but it's worth noting that not only has Brexit not happened yet, but the 2 year process to start brexit hasn't even started yet. Could this be a factor in the consequences of brexit that we were warned about also not actually having happened yet?

You know Pete I am sick of going on social media and seeing brexiteers saying I thought Armageddon was coming and it was scare monging as i been saying as nothing has happened (this isnt a dig at you AWOL BTW)

But we haven't left yet so the real impact hasn't actually occurred yet. I just cant believe people think everything will be the same short term. Next few years are going to be horrible I think. the future might look good in 10-20 years most say but whats the point of that if I am old and wont be able to enjoy it! (I know I am very selfish!)

[darrenm]

ChrisP's example above of brexit purgatory isn't exceptional.

Thankfully the IT industry isn't too affected yet but all channel pricing has raised about 10% because of the weak pound.

[TrentVilla]

51 minutes ago, Demitri_C said:

The thing is AWOL we haven't actually left yet, I suspect it won't look as healthy once we are gone 

That wasn't the point though, AWOL was completely correct in the point he was making about the here and now. Things might not look so healthy when we actually go but the point is how accurate are these forecasts of woe from 'experts' given the current GDP figure? The point AWOL was making is that the predictions are fairly worthless.

[TrentVilla]

29 minutes ago, Demitri_C said:

You know Pete I am sick of going on social media and seeing brexiteers saying I thought Armageddon was coming and it was scare monging as i been saying as nothing has happened (this isnt a dig at you AWOL BTW)

But we haven't left yet so the real impact hasn't actually occurred yet. I just cant believe people think everything will be the same short term. Next few years are going to be horrible I think. the future might look good in 10-20 years most say but whats the point of that if I am old and wont be able to enjoy it! (I know I am very selfish!)

I don't think a single person thinks 'everything will be the same'.

[tonyh29]

45 minutes ago, blandy said:

Not trying to be a smart arse or anything, but it's worth noting that not only has Brexit not happened yet, but the 2 year process to start brexit hasn't even started yet. Could this be a factor in the consequences of brexit that we were warned about also not actually having happened yet?

Osborne , Cameron etc were very clear that the downturn would be immediate if we voted leave

fairly sure Nissan also said they would pull out and the WTO also spelt doom and gloom which they have now reversed

 

You are right we don't know what's going to happen but as the remoaners have been quick to jump on every piece of negativity with a smug we told you its a good idea to point them in the direction of good news in case they miss it whilst they are too busy trying to find reports that someone's Turkish van cat got attacked by a British shorthair  cat and it wouldn't have happened pre Brexit

Edited October 28, 2016 by tonyh29

[Davkaus]

5 minutes ago, tonyh29 said:

Osborne , Cameron etc were very clear that the downturn would be immediate if we voted leave

 

Cameron was also clear that he wouldn't resign, and that he'd immediately trigger article 50, which certainly influenced warnings that the downturn would be far more immediate and severe than what we've seen so far.

It's hard for even the most knowledgeable to make predictions that remain accurate when it turns out that they were repeatedly lied to.

Edited October 28, 2016 by Davkaus

[TrentVilla]

2 minutes ago, tonyh29 said:

Osborne , Cameron etc were very clear that the downturn would be immediate if we voted leave

fairly sure Nissan also said they would pull out and the WTO also spelt doom and gloom which they have now reversed

 

You are right we don't know what's going to happen but as the remoaners have been quick to jump on every piece of negativity with a smug we told you its a good idea to point them in the direction of good news in case they miss it whilst they are too busy trying to find reports that someone's Turkish van cat got attacked by a British shorthair  cat and it wouldn't have happened pre Brexit

Spot on and yes Nissan did exactly that.

They tried to influence the outcome but seemingly it was a hollow threat based on the last 24 hours.

Before people scream we've not left yet, it's not a short term decision they've just made.

[Awol]

54 minutes ago, darrenm said:

Isn't that because the pound is weak so we're exporting more?

Surely that means that we're right on the edge of a massive crash when we can't afford to buy anything in?

I wouldn't be so smug yet.

Is pointing out that the great and the good were completely wrong smug, or stating the facts? 

As I said they may turn out to be right longer term but so far they're off by about a mile.

Assuming most people want the UK to succeed whatever their view on Brexit then this should be celebrated - and as someone else said, hooray for Nissan making a 20 year investment commitment to the north east.

[tonyh29]

10 minutes ago, Davkaus said:

Cameron was also clear that he wouldn't resign, and that he'd immediately trigger article 50, which certainly influenced warnings that the downturn would be far more immediate and severe than what we've seen so far.

It's hard for even the most knowledgeable to make predictions that remain accurate when it turns out that they were repeatedly lied to.

Well at least you've acknowledged that remain were lying to the people ... that's a start

 

Edited October 28, 2016 by tonyh29

[Demitri_C]

21 minutes ago, TrentVilla said:

I don't think a single person thinks 'everything will be the same'.

I think your incorrect with that one