The now-enacted will of (some of) the people

[snowychap]

To imagine, devise, promote, work, or encourage others, to support UK becoming a member of the European Union...

 

He can't have gone to 'grammar' school.

[MakemineVanilla]

1 hour ago, Davkaus said:

A Tory Councillor has started a petition to make it a crime to support the UK being in the EU. 

I particularly like the "imagine" bit, because if you're going to criminalise expressing political views, you may as well go full thought-police as well.

https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/168882

 

It seems, hilariously, to demand for a modern version of the Acts of Supremacy (1534) to be enacted where the church of Rome is replaced by the anti-Christ which is the EU, and that any allegiance to the latter should be considered high treason.

It has to be noted that before the reformation church taxes were paid to Rome, rather than Brussels.

Execution should be by pressing to death with the weight of £350m in small change.

History repeats the old conceits, the glib replies, the same defeats...

 

Edited October 17, 2016 by MakemineVanilla

[tonyh29]

51 minutes ago, Davkaus said:

A Tory Councillor has started a petition to make it a crime to support the UK being in the EU. 

I particularly like the "imagine" bit, because if you're going to criminalise expressing political views, you may as well go full thought-police as well.

https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/168882

 

He's from Guildford an area that voted Remain by 56% , so soon to be an ex councillor most likely

[Chindie]

Quote

Britain’s biggest banks are preparing to relocate out of the UK in the first few months of 2017 amid growing fears over the impending Brexit negotiations, while smaller banks are making plans to get out before Christmas.

The Grauniad

I'm sure this is scaremongering.

[HanoiVillan]

6 hours ago, Chindie said:

The Grauniad

I'm sure this is scaremongering.

Sounds like a lack of patriotism to me. I can't believe you are 'talking down our excellent negotiating position' (cf David Campbell-Bannerman MEP)

[mockingbird_franklin]

Meanwhile hysterical panic ensues  as the slide in the pound continues,hitting an all time low against chocolate currency.

http://www.thepoke.co.uk/2016/10/19/brexit-news-chocolate-currency-now-stronger-pound/

Brexit news: chocolate currency now stronger than the pound

Source: Twitter/@radaeron

 

[Dr_Pangloss]

8 hours ago, Chindie said:

The Grauniad

I'm sure this is scaremongering.

One could argue that the pound is over-valued in large part due to the activities of the 'shadow-banking' sector. There's also a lot of literature out there suggesting that investment banking has become inefficient and over-sized as a share of GDP in countries like the UK and US. So this need not be a bad thing in the long run, it's more of a necessary restructuring.  

[OutByEaster?]

I think that's the banks reminding May who's in charge and establishing how Brexit will be negotiated.

 

 

 

[Awol]

21 hours ago, OutByEaster? said:

I think that's the banks reminding May who's in charge and establishing how Brexit will be negotiated.

 

 

 

It's worth repeating that the US banks are unlikely to move lock stock & barrel into the euro zone, not least because the financial services eco-system London contains doesn't exist anywhere else in Europe. 

In the rush to do ourselves down the media have also neglected the role of the capital markets.

80% of the capital markets the EU wishes to incorporate into an EU capital markets union sit in London. Are they going to erect barriers to capital for their own companies in order "punish" the U.K.? 

It's possible I suppose but imo they'd be hastening the demise of the Euro Zone more broadly for zealously ideological reasons.

There is an air of unreality about the statements coming out of Brussels at the moment. It's very likely (imo) that a compromise will be reached that puts London beyond ECJ jurisdiction while still applying some form of regulatory equivalence regime that the EU can live with.

London is the financial centre of Europe and it would take decades to replicate that infrastructure within the Euro Zone - having taken 30 years to establish in the City. No amount of wishful thinking by Goldman Sachs or EU technocrats changes that basic reality.

A few 100 jobs may shift to Paris or Frankfurt but so what, is the Liberal Left crying over bankers now?! 

[mockingbird_franklin]

On 10/23/2016 at 01:49, Chindie said:

The Grauniad

I'm sure this is scaremongering.

They can **** of then. Then we could have a new banking system organised better than the one we have now which was described as, The worst possible banking system of all those available, by non other than Mervin King, The reason t is the worst possible is it's the best possible for banks and especially those in the upper echelons of banking, which is always going to be bad news for everyone else.

[tonyh29]

1 hour ago, Awol said:

It's worth repeating that the US banks are unlikely to move lock stock & barrel into the euro zone, not least because the financial services eco-system London contains doesn't exist anywhere else in Europe. 

In the rush to do ourselves down the media have also neglected the role of the capital markets.

80% of the capital markets the EU wishes to incorporate into an EU capital markets union sit in London. Are they going to erect barriers to capital for their own companies in order "punish" the U.K.? 

It's possible I suppose but imo they'd be hastening the demise of the Euro Zone more broadly for zealously ideological reasons.

There is an air of unreality about the statements coming out of Brussels at the moment. It's very likely (imo) that a compromise will be reached that puts London beyond ECJ jurisdiction while still applying some form of regulatory equivalence regime that the EU can live with.

London is the financial centre of Europe and it would take decades to replicate that infrastructure within the Euro Zone - having taken 30 years to establish in the City. No amount of wishful thinking by Goldman Sachs or EU technocrats changes that basic reality.

A few 100 jobs may shift to Paris or Frankfurt but so what, is the Liberal Left crying over bankers now?! 

how dare you bring truth and reasoning in here  .... take it elsewhere

 

[blandy]

1 hour ago, Awol said:

There is an air of unreality about the statements coming out of Brussels at the moment.

Absolutely. Ditto for the UK. The hot air is indicative of a few things, really - pre-positioning prior to negotiations starting, general ego stuff "look at me, I'm saying this", ideological idiocy, and downright ignorance of reality. And it's coming from all sides. Tusk, Junkers, May, Fox, Davies etc.

They seem to be treating the whole next stage as a competition, which is hugely disappointing. The politicians and beaurocrats are in danger of making things worse by actually attempting to follow up on their bellicose pronouncements.

I think the stuff you say about the Banking is broadly right. The London banking isn't all going to whizz off to Frankfurt or Dublin or wherever overnight. London will remain a major banking centre. It's likely that over the next decade a chunk of the banking companies will gradually transfer operations to other places - back to the US, or across to Ireland or Germany - those places will no doubt try and entice Banks to move, and changes to the current passporting arrangements would further assist that drift away from London. It won't be relocation as such, just gradually scaling down and scaling up as people retire or move on, and they'll be replaced by recruitment in another City. No apocalypse, just gradual change.

 

[Awol]

1 hour ago, blandy said:

Absolutely. Ditto for the UK. The hot air is indicative of a few things, really - pre-positioning prior to negotiations starting, general ego stuff "look at me, I'm saying this", ideological idiocy, and downright ignorance of reality. And it's coming from all sides. Tusk, Junkers, May, Fox, Davies etc.

They seem to be treating the whole next stage as a competition, which is hugely disappointing. The politicians and beaurocrats are in danger of making things worse by actually attempting to follow up on their bellicose pronouncements.

I think the stuff you say about the Banking is broadly right. The London banking isn't all going to whizz off to Frankfurt or Dublin or wherever overnight. London will remain a major banking centre. It's likely that over the next decade a chunk of the banking companies will gradually transfer operations to other places - back to the US, or across to Ireland or Germany - those places will no doubt try and entice Banks to move, and changes to the current passporting arrangements would further assist that drift away from London. It won't be relocation as such, just gradually scaling down and scaling up as people retire or move on, and they'll be replaced by recruitment in another City. No apocalypse, just gradual change.

 

I agree with most of that, but in terms of the gradual shift I'd expect it to be to the US and East Asia rather than Europe.

At its core the banking system is about the creation of debt & Europe has shot its bolt in that respect. There is however a lot further to run in the developing countries of the Far East - sadly Africa is likely to remain the social, political & economic basket case it became post-decolonization.

So if that hypothesis is correct the real problem for Europe is its gradual marginalization as a centre of economic (& therefore political) power, & commensurate to that the balancing of declining living standards with the extensive social welfare systems.

That's the point of friction that will lead to disorder and extremism - arguably it's already happening around the northern Mediterranean countries. 

Effectively continental Europe (including Russia) has passed its peak & will have a hard time adjusting to a new reality.

Where the U.K. still has a structural advantage over Europe is the ability to continue acting as a global financial centre, bridging the time zones between New York & the Singapore/Hong Kongs of this world.

Beyond that we need a whole of government holistic approach that invests in R & D and crucially follows through to commercialization & aggressive IP protection - not unlike the current Chinese system. 

Personally I think we are at an inflection point globally that requires a fundamental rethink of the way we (the U.K.) do our business. Western liberal hegemony was nice while it lasted but that's over & is being replaced with new rules that we didn't make. 

Brexit gives us a chance to get in front of that shift, if we use it wisely. Instead half the country is trying to reverse it while the other half isn't being represented by very insightful people. 

Sorry for wandering around a bit there...

[blandy]

3 minutes ago, Awol said:

Brexit gives us a chance to get in front of that shift, if we use it wisely. Instead half the country is trying to reverse it while the other half isn't being represented by very insightful people. 

I don't get the sense at all, form anyone that "half the country is trying to reverse [Brexit]"

I think that there's a massive argument about what it means - the Farage version of do away with anything that even vaguely whiffs of foreigner, or the kind of Boris Johnson cake and eat it version - stay in the single market all that stuff. The Tories are split, the UKIPs are in a cloud of flying fists, legs and dust, Labour has gone out for a bit of walk.

There was a letter in the paper from a bunch of MPs from various parties which made me chuckle

letter

Quote

Dear Chancellor,

We believe in a Britain with an excellent, well-funded public sector that provides a world-class service to the British people, pays its hard-working staff well and treats them with respect.

This was the vision of Britain promised by your cabinet colleagues who campaigned for a leave vote in the EU referendum. Vote Leave promised that, if Britain left the EU, £350m a week extra would be spent on the NHS. They travelled the country in a bus which said: “We send the EU £350m a week, let’s fund our NHS instead.” In the press conference suite at their London headquarters, a large sign read: “Let’s give our NHS the £350m the EU takes every week.”

The foreign secretary, the secretary of state for international trade, the secretary of state for the environment, the secretary of state for transport and the secretary of state for international development all appeared in photo opportunities featuring these messages. They made a very clear promise to the British people, and it is clear that a very large number of people believed this promise.

In your speech to Conservative party conference earlier this month, you said that the message of the referendum result had been “received, loud and clear” by the government. Members of the government talk of the “mandate” from the voters for Brexit.

We accept the verdict of the British people. Yet it is clear that, if this mandate is to mean anything, it must include the single most visible promise of the leave campaign – spending £350m more a week on the NHS.

In just under a month, you will present your first autumn statement. We are calling on you to commit to increase national NHS spending by £350m a week – that is £18.2bn a year – as soon as this money becomes available by leaving the European Union. This additional funding must be over and above the amount that is currently planned to be spent on the National Health Service.

Anything else will be a betrayal of the wishes of the British people. We challenge you, when you stand up in the House of Commons on 23 November, to show us the money and commit to Vote Leave’s promise; or explain why you cannot, and why your cabinet colleagues so cynically misled the British people.

Yours sincerely

[bunch of MPs etc.]

 

[HanoiVillan]

3 hours ago, Awol said:

There is an air of unreality about the statements coming out of Brussels at the moment.

Lots of people giving lots of statements. Not all of the people speaking will get their personal agendas prioritised, obviously, but the warning signs are that it's going to be incredibly hard to please so many different interests. 

 

18 minutes ago, Awol said:

I agree with most of that, but in terms of the gradual shift I'd expect it to be to the US and East Asia rather than Europe.

As you've noted yourself later in the post, the simple nature of global time zones means there is a need for a financial centre in Europe. Rebalancing from London will primarily go to Frankfurt or Paris, not Hong Kong. 

[Awol]

2 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

Rebalancing from London will primarily go to Frankfurt or Paris, not Hong Kong. 

 Doubt that for the reasons noted up the page, i.e. lack of infrastructure. Frankfurt's entire financial district is smaller than Canary Wharf & Paris, well, where to start... 

As I'm sure you know it's not simply a case of the big banks renting some office space and away they go. 

Anyway, we'll see. 

[blandy]

2 hours ago, Awol said:

Frankfurt's entire financial district is smaller than Canary Wharf & Paris, well, where to start... 

At the moment....

Canary Wharf didn't exist as a financial hub not so long back. That's the thing really. There (probably) won't be a sudden mass exodus, what will probably happen is that there will be a gradually migration of work to other places over a decade or longer, and in (say) 15 years, London will still be doing bnaking, but maybe a third less than now, and other places will have grown significantly. All that unless the 'tards in our Gov't somehow metamorphose from blinkered 'tards into superb negotiators and visionaries.

[villakram]

and don't forget that they need much less people to do financial things now, e.g., UBS trading floor comparison.

pic.twitter.com/XKYkBO8Q6C

but, heh, at least YOU have got control of your little Island back, right?

Edited October 24, 2016 by villakram

[villakram]

4 hours ago, Awol said:

I agree with most of that, but in terms of the gradual shift I'd expect it to be to the US and East Asia rather than Europe.

At its core the banking system is about the creation of debt & Europe has shot its bolt in that respect. There is however a lot further to run in the developing countries of the Far East - sadly Africa is likely to remain the social, political & economic basket case it became post-decolonization.

So if that hypothesis is correct the real problem for Europe is its gradual marginalization as a centre of economic (& therefore political) power, & commensurate to that the balancing of declining living standards with the extensive social welfare systems.

That's the point of friction that will lead to disorder and extremism - arguably it's already happening around the northern Mediterranean countries. 

Effectively continental Europe (including Russia) has passed its peak & will have a hard time adjusting to a new reality.

Where the U.K. still has a structural advantage over Europe is the ability to continue acting as a global financial centre, bridging the time zones between New York & the Singapore/Hong Kongs of this world.

Beyond that we need a whole of government holistic approach that invests in R & D and crucially follows through to commercialization & aggressive IP protection - not unlike the current Chinese system. 

Personally I think we are at an inflection point globally that requires a fundamental rethink of the way we (the U.K.) do our business. Western liberal hegemony was nice while it lasted but that's over & is being replaced with new rules that we didn't make. 

Brexit gives us a chance to get in front of that shift, if we use it wisely. Instead half the country is trying to reverse it while the other half isn't being represented by very insightful people. 

Sorry for wandering around a bit there...

I would argue that continental Europe has been well aware that it is past the peak for some time now and seems to be quite well adjusted to that. Europe is an economic powerhouse and has leveraged it's soft power very well in the world. Helped in no small part by non-sensical jingoistic legislation in the their main economic competitor, the USA. Going forward, the EuroAsian landmass is entering a new era. Good-day Mr. McKinder, how are things on the American Island?

The real problems regarding adjustment are in the old empire (Britannia, e.g., Brexit) and the current one; USA, which is currently in the process of having peaked and is on the long way down to relative normalcy. Unfortunately, I can only see them reacting in a worse way than the citizenry of Britannia did. 

You make quite an excellent point about the opportunity to create debt in Asia though. What a wonderful economic system, for the lulz! There's pretty much a fundamental limit to the GDP that can be produced, e.g., see it converging to a similar value in all the classical "Western" nations. The world will simply have to learn how to live in a non-eternally growing system, e.g., stop being so fooking stupid. I think there are an increasing number of people aware of this but I fear it's going to take a generation or more for this to seep through to the policy level.

Edited October 24, 2016 by villakram
edit: all the silly whitespace

[OutByEaster?]

Banks and bankers will go wherever they're regulated least and can enjoy a decent standard of life. I think the headlines this week were a shot across the bows of the government to not consider any sort of hard Brexit that might result in increased costs or regulation. I agree with AWOL, I think it's very unlikely they'd actually go, but they'll want to ensure that they're the first thing on the PM's mind during negotiations.