The now-enacted will of (some of) the people

[Jon]

12 minutes ago, bickster said:

I think I'm perfectly safe in the knowledge it has zero chance of happening

At the moment the Maybot seems to be doing all she can to get Corbyn elected. I know they don't have many viable options .... as an aside, I've always found Tarzan and Ken C 2 of the least objectionable Tories. Shame they are a dying breed. 

[Chindie]

14 hours ago, HanoiVillan said:

I see all of these points, but the government will just have to find a way to get to a deal. The consequences are too severe (for us) to contemplate otherwise. It's a crumb, but at last there's some, small, evidence that adults are beginning to make their voices heard:

'The Treasury and some of the prime minister’s most senior Brexit advisers are privately pushing May to agree to “converge” with Brussels regulation once Britain leaves the bloc so as not to restrict the U.K.’s access to the single market after a proposed two-year transition, officials, political aides and government ministers said.

According to two people, the Treasury is privately telling the prime minister it would be “mad” to cut off Britain’s access to trade with the EU in return for freedom to set Britain’s own regulation at home and hypothetical free-trade deals with other countries, which may take years to negotiate and have no guarantee of replacing trade lost with the Continent. The British economy would not benefit from a policy of regulatory divergence with the EU for up to 30 years, according to one estimate shared at senior levels of government.'

http://www.politico.eu/article/theresa-may-leans-towards-hammond-over-boris/

Not much, but it's a start. 

It's good that some sense is being voiced. But I've no faith in our politicians to do the sensible thing, because they will rush their own neck to do it. So they won't. A deal only happens by accepting continuing EU frameworks. And the Brexit vote is too ignorant to realise the effects of what they want, so any politician going against it is setting themselves up to be a traitor and end their career.

Increasingly I'm of the belief no deal happens and the blame when the shit hits the fan will be directed at Brussels, as usual. They're setting the pieces for it already. Farage talking about ransom, the various threats and so on.

[HanoiVillan]

27 minutes ago, Chindie said:

Increasingly I'm of the belief no deal happens and the blame when the shit hits the fan will be directed at Brussels, as usual. They're setting the pieces for it already. Farage talking about ransom, the various threats and so on.

Yeah, I see your point, and I certainly agree that there's a lot of groundwork being done in terms of preparing excuses in case of 'no deal'. But I'm allergic to anything which seems like an excuse or a justification or anything which in any way lets them off the hook if they don't get a deal, and if they do damage this country's economy for the next three decades or whatever. 

The bottom line is that the only thing standing in the way of a deal is a lack of political leadership. Maybe that political leadership is hard to provide, but as I've said many times before, this is her **** job and she wanted it. If she can't handle the challenge, then she needs to get the **** out of the way. We need to be absolutely clear that a failure to get a deal will be a betrayal of this country's interests and that history will not forgive her for it. If we go around saying, 'oh, well, it was difficult and maybe some businesses have already made some decisions as if there was no deal, so . . .' then it just lets her off the hook. 

[blandy]

5 hours ago, Chindie said:

Increasingly I'm of the belief no deal happens and the blame when the shit hits the fan will be directed at Brussels, as usual. They're setting the pieces for it already. Farage talking about ransom, the various threats and so on.

There's a couple of things there, I think.

Firstly the blame thing. Different people or groups of people will blame different parties for a "no deal" disaster outcome and consequences. SOme (perhaps us) will blame hard line idiot tories and Brexiteers like DFDS Liam Fox and Nigel Mogg. Others will blame the EU, or the less rabid Brexiteers.

People like Farage, whose whole career has been about slagging off organisations and groups will carry on slagging off organisations and groups. It's what he does.

So basically it'll be just like now, with everyone slagging off overyone else, but we'll all be poorer.

[ml1dch]

6 minutes ago, blandy said:

There's a couple of things there, I think.

Firstly the blame thing. Different people or groups of people will blame different parties for a "no deal" disaster outcome and consequences. SOme (perhaps us) will blame hard line idiot tories and Brexiteers like DFDS Liam Fox and Nigel Mogg. Others will blame the EU, or the less rabid Brexiteers.

People like Farage, whose whole career has been about slagging off organisations and groups will carry on slagging off organisations and groups. It's what he does.

So basically it'll be just like now, with everyone slagging off overyone else, but we'll all be poorer.

And secondly?

[blandy]

1 hour ago, ml1dch said:

And secondly?

The Farage bit was the secondly thing.

 

[Chindie]

22 hours ago, blandy said:

There's a couple of things there, I think.

Firstly the blame thing. Different people or groups of people will blame different parties for a "no deal" disaster outcome and consequences. SOme (perhaps us) will blame hard line idiot tories and Brexiteers like DFDS Liam Fox and Nigel Mogg. Others will blame the EU, or the less rabid Brexiteers.

People like Farage, whose whole career has been about slagging off organisations and groups will carry on slagging off organisations and groups. It's what he does.

So basically it'll be just like now, with everyone slagging off overyone else, but we'll all be poorer.

The 'official' line I think will quickly become it's the EU's fault in the view of the Brexit vote I think. Others will obviously point blame elsewhere. I'm happy to point at the lot of the opposition for instance.

Re. Farage... I think he's trying into the wider 'its Brussels fault' narrative but I think it's also with a more pointed saving his own skin bent. This was on Twitter the other day, but the gist is he is worried about his career when the wheels fall off after years of saying how great everything will be. He's won now and he's all too aware when it goes wrong he's a laughing stock.

[Chindie]

Today's Brexit news...

Banks want a transition deal agreed by Christmas. They are going to be disappointed

There's a bust up coming over exactly how the UK and EU divide trade quotas on food. 7 major food export markets (inc. US and NZ) are rejecting the idea we just take our cut of the current agreed quotas...

And (brilliantly) an email has leaked discussing how to get around the CE electrical safety mark issue post Brexit, where one suggestion appears to be 'use Amazon reviews'.

Brexit. **** stupid.

[blandy]

On 05/10/2017 at 12:39, Chindie said:

Re. Farage... I think he's trying into the wider 'its Brussels fault' narrative but I think it's also with a more pointed saving his own skin bent. This was on Twitter the other day, but the gist is he is worried about his career when the wheels fall off after years of saying how great everything will be. He's won now and he's all too aware when it goes wrong he's a laughing stock.

That's a good point. It probably applies to the likes of the idiot Gove, the disgraced Fox, the clown Johnson, the lazy Davis and so on, as well.

[Xann]

8 hours ago, Chindie said:

There's a bust up coming over exactly how the UK and EU divide trade quotas on food. 7 major food export markets (inc. US and NZ) are rejecting the idea we just take our cut of the current agreed quotas...

 

Quote

 

The U.S. and other international trade heavyweights have dashed Prime Minister Theresa May’s hopes of a smooth Brexit by rejecting one of her core plans for reintegrating into global trade networks.

Washington’s slap-down of Britain is the second big trade reality check for May in less than a fortnight. Only last week, the U.K.’s increasingly fragile position in trade disputes was exposed by the country’s inability to prevent new, ultra-high tariffs from the U.S. that could hit thousands of jobs in a plane factory in Northern Ireland.

In a fast-developing second trade spat, Washington has teamed up with Brazil, Argentina, Canada, New Zealand, Uruguay and Thailand to reject Britain’s proposed import arrangements for crucial agricultural goods such as meat, sugar and grains after Brexit. The fact that the U.K.’s opponents include the U.S., Canada and New Zealand is a significant setback because Britain is trying to style its former colonies as natural strategic and commercial allies after it has quit the EU.

 

Politico

[Chindie]

Bonus round.

Remember those German manufacturers that would rush over the hills and force a deal?

Their federation has advised them to prepare for hard Brexit. And they aren't happy with the British efforts in the negotiations at all.

They employ about 400,000 people in the UK.

Brexit. **** stupid.

[tinker]

Quoted from a crowd campaign article 

Quote

Should you have endless money to spend you can capture our democracy. To protect it from capture we have legal spending limits. Those spending limits apply to your spending in general elections and they apply to your spending in referendums. And to ensure those spending limits are effective the law stops you channeling excess spending through puppet entities............

 leave campaign funding.

 

[tonyh29]

13 hours ago, Chindie said:

Bonus round.

Remember those German manufacturers that would rush over the hills and force a deal?

Their federation has advised them to prepare for hard Brexit. And they aren't happy with the British efforts in the negotiations at all.

They employ about 400,000 people in the UK.

Brexit. **** stupid.

guess you were away when German Business lobbied their government to get things done  the other week  ?

there was a study carried out amongst those German Businesses a wee while ago , 88% of German business view the the prevention of tariffs and import taxes as an important issue , 83% wanted Minimal bureaucracy

perhaps , German Business still seem keen on a deal ?

 

 

[ml1dch]

1 hour ago, tonyh29 said:

guess you were away when German Business lobbied their government to get things done  the other week  ?

there was a study carried out amongst those German Businesses a wee while ago , 88% of German business view the the prevention of tariffs and import taxes as an important issue , 83% wanted Minimal bureaucracy

perhaps , German Business still seem keen on a deal ?

 

I'm amazed that it's as little as 88% and 83%. Who are the 17% who want extra bureaucracy?

But that doesn't change anything does it? While the Government has no specifics on what it wants and is showing no movement on a solution for Ireland (which won't be solved without somebody's red line breaking) then there's not a whole lot for Barnier to do.

[Chindie]

1 hour ago, tonyh29 said:

guess you were away when German Business lobbied their government to get things done  the other week  ?

there was a study carried out amongst those German Businesses a wee while ago , 88% of German business view the the prevention of tariffs and import taxes as an important issue , 83% wanted Minimal bureaucracy

perhaps , German Business still seem keen on a deal ?

 

 

@ml1dch has said it quite well. This doesn't change anything.

[tonyh29]

26 minutes ago, Chindie said:

@ml1dch has said it quite well. This doesn't change anything.

Well in that case nor does the German federation saying prepare for a hard Brexit 

 

point was you specifically referenced German business and German Business IS keen to get a deal done 

[Chindie]

16 minutes ago, tonyh29 said:

Well in that case nor does the German federation saying prepare for a hard Brexit 

 

point was you specifically referenced German business and German Business IS keen to get a deal done 

It can be as keen as it wants to be. There's hurdles they aren't in control of and the EU won't hobble it's foundations for a comparatively small hit.

Hence why the federation is saying prepare for no deal. German business is already switching elsewhere in the EU to get certainty.

Edited October 6, 2017 by Chindie

[ml1dch]

14 minutes ago, tonyh29 said:

Well in that case nor does the German federation saying prepare for a hard Brexit 

 

point was you specifically referenced German business and German Business IS keen to get a deal done 

Of course it is. Why wouldn't it be? It always has and probably always will be.

The change is that they're now saying that they don't think that it will be.

Surely you can see that one of those is a continuation of position and one is a change of position?

[magnkarl]

22 hours ago, Chindie said:

Hence why the federation is saying prepare for no deal. German business is already switching elsewhere in the EU to get certainty.

I was listening to ARD for my weekly drive to London yesterday. They were discussing the same thing, however they were saying that it's not as simple as that. As an economy and market the UK has been incredibly good for German industry. They were saying that there's no other area in Europe that can plug that gap. France has French cars, Italians have Italian cars etc. They said that Scandinavia could probably be a bigger market but that it's unlikely that it'll even get close to plugging the gap. Companies like Krups, BMW, Mercedes, Audi, WMF, Beiersdorf and Miele will all have to make cuts if they lose the UK as a market due to the new tariff rules.

Brexit will hurt for both sides, I just hope they get to their senses soon and stop this madness before it's too late.

[Chindie]

9 minutes ago, magnkarl said:

I was listening to ARD for my weekly drive to London yesterday. They were discussing the same thing, however they were saying that it's not as simple as that. As an economy and market the UK has been incredibly good for German industry. They were saying that there's no other area in Europe that can plug that gap. France has French cars, Italians have Italian cars etc. They said that Scandinavia could probably be a bigger market but that it's unlikely that it'll even get close to plugging the gap. Companies like Krups, BMW, Mercedes, Audi, WMF, Beiersdorf and Miele will all have to make cuts if they lose the UK as a market due to the new tariff rules.

Brexit will hurt for both sides, I just hope they get to their senses soon and stop this madness before it's too late.

Theres no doubt both sides are hurt by Brexit. That much is obvious.

The issue is, a lot of Brexiteers seem to think Europe suffers as much if not more. And it simply doesn't. It cuts the EU, it chops limbs off us.

German companies are hurt by Brexit, absolutely. But they also know they have simple trade with 27 markets, which they rather like. That's why they've so staunchly said again and again that they value the market's integrity above British trade. They can see the issues that are going to stop a good outcome for them and they are saying prepare for that. And some already are.

Yes that means that they will take a hit. But they're looking at the big picture. They'll take a hit now rather than accept something that could threaten their entire business model in Europe.