The banker loving, baby-eating Tory party thread (regenerated)

[bickster]

6 minutes ago, PaulC said:

I think that's wishful thinking on your part. The Conservative party have been around since the year dot and the liberals/ lib dems haven't been the alternative since the early 1900s

 

Yep, that's the kind of opinion I tend to ignore as there's clearly no logical approach beyond "It's always been that way"

 

[ml1dch]

14 minutes ago, PaulC said:

I think that's wishful thinking on your part. The Conservative party have been around since the year dot and the liberals/ lib dems haven't been the alternative since the early 1900s

 

And what happened to the Liberals? Or the Whigs before them?

 

Spoiler

The TLDR version can boiled down that other parties who people decided better represented their interests moved in and took their voters and their political territory

 

I'm not as bullish as bicks on "they're dead and never coming back", but his logic is definitely more coherent then just "well, it's always been like this".

Edited September 5 by ml1dch

[mjmooney]

2 hours ago, ml1dch said:

I reckon Badenoch would still beat Jenrick with the members pretty easily.

The Tory members in the shires, faced with a choice between a white man and a black woman are only going to vote one way. 

[Jon]

5 minutes ago, mjmooney said:

The Tory members in the shires, faced with a choice between a white man and a black woman are only going to vote one way. 

But if she's more batshit crazy right wing, then that could sway them imo. They've already shown that's what they want when electing the lettuce. 

The only hurdle is the race card.  But I think given the choice, they'll go for the most right wing option  

Edited September 5 by Jon
Spelling

[PaulC]

18 minutes ago, ml1dch said:

And what happened to the Liberals? Or the Whigs before them?

 

  Reveal hidden contents

The TLDR version can boiled down that other parties who people decided better represented their interests moved in and took their voters and their political territory

 

I'm not as bullish as bicks on "they're dead and never coming back", but his logic is definitely more coherent then just "well, it's always been like this".

I hate the conservative party but 14 years ago they took over a bad situation after the financial crash. They then got themselves in a mess over Brexit. Then they had a historic pandemic to deal with then they had the war in Ukraine and the energy crisis. Yes they made a mess of things. These are the reasons Labour got back in and the reasons the lib dems got more votes and seats after being dead in the water after the sellout of the coalition..

I don't believe the lib dems will ever be the alternative Party to Labour. This is as good as it gets for then and if and when Labour **** up then people will go back to the Tory party. That's my opinion..

Edited September 5 by PaulC

[PaulC]

39 minutes ago, bickster said:

Yep, that's the kind of opinion I tend to ignore as there's clearly no logical approach beyond "It's always been that way"

 

Heard it all before since the 1970s.

In 5 years time if the Lib dems get more seats than the Tory party. I will come on here and say you were right and I was wrong.

Edited September 5 by PaulC

[bickster]

40 minutes ago, PaulC said:

Heard it all before since the 1970s.

In 5 years time if the Lib dems get more seats than the Tory party. I will come on here and say you were right and I was wrong.

If all things remain equal (they won't) the LibDems need to take 25 seats off the Tories. that's much less than they managed last time.

Here is their list of top 30 target seats for 2029 (or before)

No gain in that list is remotely outrageous

Election polling (though obviously stolen from Wiki)

1.		Godalming and Ash	South East	891	0.81%
2.		Farnham and Bordon	South East	1,349	1.27%
3.		Hampshire East	South East	1,275	1.27%
4.		Shropshire South	West Midlands	1,624	1.57%
5.		Dorset North	South West	1,589	1.60%
6.		Romsey and Southampton North	South East	2,191	2.19%
7.		Cotswolds North	South West	3,357	3.34%
8.		Torridge and Tavistock	South West	3,950	3.89%
9.		Burnley	North West	3,420	4.31%
10.		Hamble Valley	South East	4,802	4.45%
11.		Hertfordshire South West	East of England	4,456	4.62%
12.		Salisbury	South West	5,285	5.27%
13.		Buckinghamshire Mid	South East	5,872	5.44%
14.		Sevenoaks	South East	5,440	5.45%
15.		Hinckley and Bosworth	East Midlands	5,408	5.66%
16.		Beaconsfield	South East	5,455	5.71%
17.		Worcestershire West	West Midlands	6,547	5.99%
18.		Exmouth and Exeter East	South West	3,341	6.27%
19.		Sussex Weald	South East	6,842	6.96%
20.		Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr	Wales	6,239	7.21%
21.		Windsor	South East	6,944	7.67%
22.		Christchurch	South West	7,455	7.87%
23.		Runnymede and Weybridge	South East	7,627	7.90%
24.		Sheffield Hallam	Yorkshire and the Humber	8,189	7.93%
25.		Fareham and Waterlooville	South East	8,028	8.01%
26.		Aylesbury	South East	4,641	8.03%
27.		Spelthorne	South East	5,328	8.10%
28.		Kenilworth and Southam	West Midlands	8,931	8.37%
29.		East Grinstead and Uckfield	South East	8,480	8.41%
30.		Leicester East	East Midlands	8,197	8.77%

[blandy]

1 hour ago, bickster said:

Yep, that's the kind of opinion I tend to ignore as there's clearly no logical approach beyond "It's always been that way"

But there is logic to that view. Maybe not alluded to in posting an opinion, but it’s there, nevertheless. For example, the driving force for the last election was “boot out the Tories” rather than mass support for any party. The LDs targeted a subset of seats and did so on a nod and a wink with Labour. They (and Labour) were the beneficiaries of anti Tory sentiment, rather than adherence to those parties themselves. The situation won’t be the same in the next couple of elections, but what will be the same is the LDs lower resources compared to the other two. It’s perhaps unlikely that the Tories will make a comeback next time, but it’s also unlikely that the LDs will have the resources to gain any more seats from the Tories. The Tories will also benefit from people being disappointed with Labour (as may the LDs) in 5 or 10 years time. I fervently hope the words removed are wiped out, but realistically they’re not going to be. They may be fighting for the 35% or so of the electorate which is right of centre, with the Grifter’s party, while Labour, LDs and Greens fight over the 50 odd % which is left/left of centre, but IMO logic and reasoning can support an opinion that they’re not done for. While you’re right that past performance is not an indicator of future performance, ignoring it altogether might not be wise.

[PaulC]

58 minutes ago, bickster said:

If all things remain equal (they won't) the LibDems need to take 25 seats off the Tories. that's much less than they managed last time.

Here is their list of top 30 target seats for 2029 (or before)

No gain in that list is remotely outrageous

Election polling (though obviously stolen from Wiki)

1.		Godalming and Ash	South East	891	0.81%
2.		Farnham and Bordon	South East	1,349	1.27%
3.		Hampshire East	South East	1,275	1.27%
4.		Shropshire South	West Midlands	1,624	1.57%
5.		Dorset North	South West	1,589	1.60%
6.		Romsey and Southampton North	South East	2,191	2.19%
7.		Cotswolds North	South West	3,357	3.34%
8.		Torridge and Tavistock	South West	3,950	3.89%
9.		Burnley	North West	3,420	4.31%
10.		Hamble Valley	South East	4,802	4.45%
11.		Hertfordshire South West	East of England	4,456	4.62%
12.		Salisbury	South West	5,285	5.27%
13.		Buckinghamshire Mid	South East	5,872	5.44%
14.		Sevenoaks	South East	5,440	5.45%
15.		Hinckley and Bosworth	East Midlands	5,408	5.66%
16.		Beaconsfield	South East	5,455	5.71%
17.		Worcestershire West	West Midlands	6,547	5.99%
18.		Exmouth and Exeter East	South West	3,341	6.27%
19.		Sussex Weald	South East	6,842	6.96%
20.		Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr	Wales	6,239	7.21%
21.		Windsor	South East	6,944	7.67%
22.		Christchurch	South West	7,455	7.87%
23.		Runnymede and Weybridge	South East	7,627	7.90%
24.		Sheffield Hallam	Yorkshire and the Humber	8,189	7.93%
25.		Fareham and Waterlooville	South East	8,028	8.01%
26.		Aylesbury	South East	4,641	8.03%
27.		Spelthorne	South East	5,328	8.10%
28.		Kenilworth and Southam	West Midlands	8,931	8.37%
29.		East Grinstead and Uckfield	South East	8,480	8.41%
30.		Leicester East	East Midlands	8,197	8.77%

Good luck with that. I hope you are right and if Labour mess up I will probably turn my vote to the lib dems. I want it to happen. I'm sick of the Tory, labour monopoly.

[Rolta]

8 hours ago, bickster said:

If all things remain equal (they won't) the LibDems need to take 25 seats off the Tories. that's much less than they managed last time.

Here is their list of top 30 target seats for 2029 (or before)

No gain in that list is remotely outrageous

Election polling (though obviously stolen from Wiki)

1.		Godalming and Ash	South East	891	0.81%
2.		Farnham and Bordon	South East	1,349	1.27%
3.		Hampshire East	South East	1,275	1.27%
4.		Shropshire South	West Midlands	1,624	1.57%
5.		Dorset North	South West	1,589	1.60%
6.		Romsey and Southampton North	South East	2,191	2.19%
7.		Cotswolds North	South West	3,357	3.34%
8.		Torridge and Tavistock	South West	3,950	3.89%
9.		Burnley	North West	3,420	4.31%
10.		Hamble Valley	South East	4,802	4.45%
11.		Hertfordshire South West	East of England	4,456	4.62%
12.		Salisbury	South West	5,285	5.27%
13.		Buckinghamshire Mid	South East	5,872	5.44%
14.		Sevenoaks	South East	5,440	5.45%
15.		Hinckley and Bosworth	East Midlands	5,408	5.66%
16.		Beaconsfield	South East	5,455	5.71%
17.		Worcestershire West	West Midlands	6,547	5.99%
18.		Exmouth and Exeter East	South West	3,341	6.27%
19.		Sussex Weald	South East	6,842	6.96%
20.		Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr	Wales	6,239	7.21%
21.		Windsor	South East	6,944	7.67%
22.		Christchurch	South West	7,455	7.87%
23.		Runnymede and Weybridge	South East	7,627	7.90%
24.		Sheffield Hallam	Yorkshire and the Humber	8,189	7.93%
25.		Fareham and Waterlooville	South East	8,028	8.01%
26.		Aylesbury	South East	4,641	8.03%
27.		Spelthorne	South East	5,328	8.10%
28.		Kenilworth and Southam	West Midlands	8,931	8.37%
29.		East Grinstead and Uckfield	South East	8,480	8.41%
30.		Leicester East	East Midlands	8,197	8.77%

The lib dems don't have the combined might of the 99% of the entire media behind them. For me that's also the reason the Tories lasted 14 years in the first place, and the reason they continue to exist. They represent the interests of the elite money in this country and that isn't going away. It's not an even playing field and the power they have to define the national narrative is depressingly strong even now I fear. 

Edited September 5 by Rolta

[The Fun Factory]

The Tory leadership election has barely got a mention, partly because now in opposition they are a bit of an irrelevance and also because it is so bloody convulted this time. I noted Patel lost in the first round the remaining 120 MP's can't seem to overwhelmly back one candidate. Good, that means whoever wins will constantly have to look behind their shoulder with the MP's not doubt waiting to shaft them at the earliest opportunity. If Honest Bob is the best they are offering then god help them. I mean the man is utterly useless and has suddenly had a road to Damascus conversion to the hard right for entirely self-gain. He is from Wolverhampton and was unaware it is now a city.  I don't know if he can spell potato or not though.

Edited September 8 by The Fun Factory

[ml1dch]

These losers are still doing that competition thing

 

[Mark Albrighton]

I assume Mel took defeat in his…ah forget it.

[icouldtelltheworld]

On 05/09/2024 at 11:34, mjmooney said:

The Tory members in the shires, faced with a choice between a white man and a black woman are only going to vote one way. 

I think you're wrong on this one. I have a batshit auntie who is a longstanding Tory member and has more recently got hooked on American Q-Anon type conspiracy theories.

She thinks Badenoch is fantastic, on account of her being on the right of the party. These people are horribly racist, but are able to compartmentalise that for a person of colour who tickles their own prejudices ("one of the good ones").

I suspect it will come down to Jenrick vs Badenoch and the members won't vote for Jenrick as he is perceived as an insider from the last Tory government, which many of the members perceive as having only lost due to being overtly 'socialist'. They aren't in touch with reality, so they're unable to spot the contradictions in their own worldview 

[LondonLax]

9 hours ago, icouldtelltheworld said:

I think you're wrong on this one. I have a batshit auntie who is a longstanding Tory member and has more recently got hooked on American Q-Anon type conspiracy theories.

She thinks Badenoch is fantastic, on account of her being on the right of the party. These people are horribly racist, but are able to compartmentalise that for a person of colour who tickles their own prejudices ("one of the good ones").

I suspect it will come down to Jenrick vs Badenoch and the members won't vote for Jenrick as he is perceived as an insider from the last Tory government, which many of the members perceive as having only lost due to being overtly 'socialist'. They aren't in touch with reality, so they're unable to spot the contradictions in their own worldview 

I think you touch on something here. For a lot of people who we would describe as racist they would be most accurately be considered xenophobic and just plain ‘ignorant’.

If a person fits the mould of what they consider culturally acceptable for a ‘British person’ then skin tone is not particularly relevant. I think this is why they then get so riled up with an accusation of being racist. 

However it is pretty obvious that plenty of people like this also use skin colour as a lazy proxy indicator for representing a culture difference they find disagreeable but this is how you can find redneck ‘patriots’ who will support a black woman for prime minister who promises to crack down on ‘outsiders’. 

Of course there are definitely also people who are just straight up racist and would never support someone like Badenoch or Sunak as leader.

[Genie]

4 minutes ago, LondonLax said:

I think you touch on something here. For a lot of people who we would describe as racist they would be most accurately be considered xenophobic and just plain ‘ignorant’.

If a person fits the mould of what they consider culturally acceptable for a ‘British person’ then skin tone is not particularly relevant. I think this is why they then get so riled up with an accusation of being racist. 

However it is pretty obvious that plenty of people like this also use skin colour as a lazy proxy indicator for representing a culture difference they find disagreeable but this is how you can find redneck ‘patriots’ who will support a black woman for prime minister who promises to crack down on ‘outsiders’. 

Of course there are definitely also people who are just straight up racist and would never support someone like Badenoch or Sunak as leader.

I noticed with Reform voters that often online they deny they are racist because the party they support has a vice president who is not white.

It eases the guilt and makes it less offensive / racist to support these policies if a black or asian person is promoting it (in their eyes).

Edited September 11 by Genie

[ml1dch]

9 hours ago, icouldtelltheworld said:

I think you're wrong on this one. I have a batshit auntie who is a longstanding Tory member and has more recently got hooked on American Q-Anon type conspiracy theories.

She thinks Badenoch is fantastic, on account of her being on the right of the party. These people are horribly racist, but are able to compartmentalise that for a person of colour who tickles their own prejudices ("one of the good ones").

I suspect it will come down to Jenrick vs Badenoch and the members won't vote for Jenrick as he is perceived as an insider from the last Tory government, which many of the members perceive as having only lost due to being overtly 'socialist'. They aren't in touch with reality, so they're unable to spot the contradictions in their own worldview 

Yup, this is a far more sensible take than the frankly pretty lazy one of "Tories don't like people who aren't white". It's the same broad bunch of people who vote in Tory leadership elections as choose MPs. If the Tory members of Saffron Walden are happy to choose Kemi Badenoch as their candidate in 2017 over a white man and a white woman (Stephen Parkinson and Laura Farris), then there is no reason why the same wider group won't pick her over a white man this time. 

Where I think you might be wrong is the Jenrick - Badenoch match-up happening. Stride's 16 MPs are likely to move to Cleverly or Tugendhat. One of them will also be knocked out next month. There are effectively 37 MPs (16 for Stride to now divvy up, plus those of whichever of the above two finishes last next time out) votes available, most of which you'd expect to go the other of the two above.

You might also be right, but I think it's far more likely that whichever of Cleverly and Tugendhat comes third will acquire the bulk of the support of the other, and move into second before it gets to the members. 

[Jon]

2 hours ago, ml1dch said:

 I think it's far more likely that whichever of Cleverly and Tugendhat comes third will acquire the bulk of the support of the other, and move into second before it gets to the members. 

The membership won't be happy if they can't vote for the most batshit crazy right winger. 

Though Cruella would have been their darling, Bad Knock would be a decent alternative for  them.