sharkyvilla Posted July 5 Share Posted July 5 2 minutes ago, AshVilla said: So who's the next leader then. Cruella or Mordaunt. I'm thinking the former. Mordaunt lost her seat so it won't be her. It could be Jeremy Hunt, he has run several times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mozzavfc Posted July 5 Share Posted July 5 3 minutes ago, AshVilla said: So who's the next leader then. Cruella or Mordaunt. I'm thinking the former. Well Mordaunt isn't an MP any more so it's not going to be her. I reckon they'll go with Cruella or Badenoch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jareth Posted July 5 Share Posted July 5 Cleverly's throwing his hat in. But Hunt or Cleverley, or similar, will have to contend with the rabid membership who will want Cruella. Which equals oblivion. Hahahahaa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Davkaus Posted July 5 Share Posted July 5 8 minutes ago, sharkyvilla said: Mordaunt lost her seat so it won't be her. It could be Jeremy Hunt, he has run several times. She's spoke about running, I don't think it'll be very palatable parachuting her into a safe seat so soon after a GE loss, but she seems interested in making it happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LondonLax Posted July 5 Share Posted July 5 The Tories will cement the right of their party to try and claim back the votes lost to Reform. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonyh29 Posted July 5 Share Posted July 5 Bookies have Badenoch as favourite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted July 5 Share Posted July 5 47 minutes ago, LondonLax said: The Tories will cement the right of their party to try and claim back the votes lost to Reform. That’s really the only option that have in the short or medium term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ml1dch Posted July 5 Share Posted July 5 1 hour ago, Davkaus said: She's spoke about running, I don't think it'll be very palatable parachuting her into a safe seat so soon after a GE loss, but she seems interested in making it happen But the logistics don't work, for all the same reasons it doesn't work for Johnson. A new leader is going to be in place before any by-elections happen. A new leader then has control over by-election candidates. Why would a leader want an obvious rival for their job to be given an easy platform to challenge for it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sidcow Posted July 5 VT Supporter Share Posted July 5 1 hour ago, LondonLax said: The Tories will cement the right of their party to try and claim back the votes lost to Reform. The only way I can see that happening is that they make take, I don't know, half of the reform vote back, which still won't be enough for them to make a dent, especially as they'll lose more moderates in the process. There will be that hardcore who will just be true Reformer now. They will still eat each other up just in different percentages. But they are just dumb enough to do that. Of course in the next 4 years more or their elderly support will die off as well. They would be far better off heading back to the middle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post one_ian_taylor Posted July 5 VT Supporter Popular Post Share Posted July 5 59 minutes ago, tonyh29 said: Bookies have Badenoch as favourite Never mind the bookies, what does the body language say? 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted July 5 Moderator Share Posted July 5 2 hours ago, Davkaus said: She's spoke about running, I don't think it'll be very palatable parachuting her into a safe seat so soon after a GE loss, but she seems interested in making it happen Parachuting candidates in much harder post election as it goes back to local party to choose, sure it can happen but it'll have to be the right constituency to choose her. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chindie Posted July 5 VT Supporter Share Posted July 5 The Tories need to take the hammering and slink off to tend to the wounds for a while, them need to change leader out of the limelight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonyh29 Posted July 5 Share Posted July 5 55 minutes ago, one_ian_taylor said: Never mind the bookies, what does the body language say? Ha , I’m not playing any of them at Poker that’s for sure Never mind body language, can you guess the language from the middle finger I’m virtually raising at you 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted July 5 Moderator Share Posted July 5 26 minutes ago, Chindie said: The Tories need to take the hammering and slink off to tend to the wounds for a while, them need to change leader out of the limelight. I’d say that was absolutely impossible (the out of the limelight bit) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ml1dch Posted July 5 Share Posted July 5 On 07/12/2023 at 11:45, ml1dch said: You also need to look though at the changing sands of seats - it's very easy to get caught up in the results of elections and not see the trends underneath. Example - 2017 is broadly seen as a terrible election for the Tories, but May increased the Tory vote by 2m from the 2015 result, to lose thirteen seats. But those extra votes turned a load of safe Labour seats into marginals. In 2019, Johnson only added 300,000 votes to May's 2017 total, to gain forty eight seats - nearly all them the ones that May had softened up two years earlier. What else happened in 2019? The Lib Dems went from twelve seats to eleven and Jo Swinson lost her seat. But in the process, they added over a million votes to their 2017 total which was the most extra votes that any party gained by a mile in that election. And the majority of those went into turning safe Tory seats into Tory / Lib Dem marginals in 2024. If Starmer gets the stonking majority that looks likely at the moment, he's arguably got Jo Swinson to thank more than anybody on his own side. Lib Dem votes in 2019 - 3,696,419, seats = 11 Lib Dem votes in 2024 - 3,499,969, seats = 71 Surely Swinson's name is first in the hat for the next Lib Dem nominated peer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted July 5 Moderator Share Posted July 5 On the question of which way will the Tory Party turn this is rather relevant. Also add Penny Mordor to the list Hunt won’t run again I don’t think so the wet/one nation era will probably have to coalesce around Tugndhat. And they’ll lose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted July 5 Moderator Share Posted July 5 … so what you will have is a battle between the Right wingers. Braverman Patel and possibly others. Early prediction, it’ll be Patel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted July 5 Share Posted July 5 1 minute ago, bickster said: … so what you will have is a battle between the Right wingers. Braverman Patel and possibly others. Early prediction, it’ll be Patel. If they try to lurch more to the right to recover votes from Reform will a leader called Patel be problematic? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rds1983 Posted July 5 VT Supporter Share Posted July 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted July 5 Moderator Share Posted July 5 5 minutes ago, Genie said: If they try to lurch more to the right to recover votes from Reform will a leader called Patel be problematic? And Braverman won’t be? Theres also a few photos of Patel in Farage’s company at the last Tory conference. She’s also been suspiciously quiet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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