The banker loving, baby-eating Tory party thread (regenerated)

[chrisp65]

Just now, Panto_Villan said:

What argument are you making? In the US there’s no longer a party where money and land has a natural home it can trust, because the Republicans are controlled by one man chasing the populist vote. That’s exactly the scenario you said business wouldn’t allow to happen, isn’t it?

I don’t think it’s that likely the Tories are wiped out; I think worst case for them is probably a merger with Reform. I just don’t think business has the power to stop populists taking over like you seem to be suggesting.

What argument am I making? I’m arguing the tories will still be around at the next election, that they won’t be wiped out as suggested. You appear to be agreeing.

That they may adapt is perfectly possible, they always have, it’s how they got their name.

[ml1dch]

4 minutes ago, Jareth said:

Farage is holding a gun to their head - If they look like they are going to be wiped out, at the very last moment they will give Farage what he wants and Reform will stand down.  

I don't really follow the logistics. When's this last moment? What's this thing that they're going to "give" Farage?

Reform have over 600 candidates standing. The Tory manifesto is written. They (stupidly) believe Sunak to be some sort of wet socialist. There isn't a lever that Farage can pull now that changes things.

And more to the point, there's nothing that they can offer Farage that he wants. He wants them destroyed so he can rebuild the brand in his image.  

[bickster]

Just now, chrisp65 said:

What argument am I making? I’m arguing the tories will still be around at the next election, that they won’t be wiped out as suggested. You appear to be agreeing.

That they may adapt is perfectly possible, they always have, it’s how they got their name.

They may be around, I don’t think they'll be in a position to make a serious bid to win an election. There’s just too much stacked against them.

[Panto_Villan]

1 minute ago, chrisp65 said:

What argument am I making? I’m arguing the tories will still be around at the next election, that they won’t be wiped out as suggested. You appear to be agreeing.

That they may adapt is perfectly possible, they always have, it’s how they got their name.

Sure, I largely agree with that - although if the Tories and Reform merge, I’d probably argue that was effectively a new party at that point (even if they wore the skin of the old Tories). I think there’s a low chance of that happening but it’s certainly possible.

[Panto_Villan]

16 minutes ago, DaoDeMings said:

The thing that I think makes Farage/Reform a threat to the Conservative Party is that fundamentally they all share similar interests. As with Trump and the Republican party, if it appears that Reform is galvanizing support better than the Conservatives, the Tories will all happily jump ship as the next best thing that protects their own interests. As much as many Tories like to parrot ideas of 'tradition' and 'heritage', really what they're interested in is money and power. If it looks like Reform offers the best chance to keep themselves and the rest of the wealthy classes happy and in control then I don't think they'd hesitate to let the Conservative Party crash and burn.

I do find it hard to imagine the Conservative Party dying entirely, and I think it probably won't ,but as you said, the possibility does make this election interesting.

Yeah. But to me the threat from Reform is that Farage actually seems to have a clear idea of what he wants to achieve, whereas the Tories are just listlessly sagging in the water after a succession of ineffective leaders with different philosophies.

That’s why I think they’re potentially vulnerable to a takeover - as you say, their MPs have demonstrated they are rather “flexible” when it comes to what they’re prepared to support, and Farage might be more appealing to Conservative Party members than any Tory MP that survives the election.

[trekka]

[trekka]

[picicata]

2 hours ago, bickster said:

They may be around, I don’t think they'll be in a position to make a serious bid to win an election. There’s just too much stacked against them.

Maybe not at the next election but by the time Labour have been in for 10 years a Conservative Party will once again stand a good chance of winning. They will probably go on a swing to the right after this upcoming election, just as they did during their Blair wilderness years, but they will eventually realise that most people in this country are quite central in their political views.

[mjmooney]

[Jareth]

3 hours ago, ml1dch said:

I don't really follow the logistics. When's this last moment? What's this thing that they're going to "give" Farage?

Reform have over 600 candidates standing. The Tory manifesto is written. They (stupidly) believe Sunak to be some sort of wet socialist. There isn't a lever that Farage can pull now that changes things.

And more to the point, there's nothing that they can offer Farage that he wants. He wants them destroyed so he can rebuild the brand in his image.  

There was plenty of talk not long ago about Farage coming back to the tories. Reform will never be the opposition regardless of how many loonies they have standing. Farage wants the tory party. And if you believe him when he says he won't do a deal - well...

[bickster]

3 hours ago, picicata said:

Maybe not at the next election but by the time Labour have been in for 10 years a Conservative Party will once again stand a good chance of winning. They will probably go on a swing to the right after this upcoming election, just as they did during their Blair wilderness years, but they will eventually realise that most people in this country are quite central in their political views.

Which demographic group do you see voting for them in large numbers in ten years time? Even before this election was called and all the ludicrous things that have gone before us, the only demographic that was majority voting for them was 70+ Most of the demographic groups below that despised them.

It is currently getting quite tight between who will be the opposition and that is important, very important. How many of the leader debates are between the leaders of the top two parties, under FPTP, you need to be at least the opposition. I didn’t see them being in that position in another election cycle and that was before the current post election announcement nonsense. The latest polling will be rather revealing I think.

If the LibDems are the opposition, they have a great platform to build on and will appeal much more to the traditional One Nation typical Tory voting public than either Reform or the rump of the Tory Party.

Reform and Farage have a ceiling (Farage isn’t universally like even among the more rightward looking Tories)and their votes much like the LibDems currently are very localised, they also arent a party and don’t have anything of a localised structure. There’s no internal democracy. They are also a one trick pony, there’s Farage and… oh yes 30p Lee possibly. 
It’s not even as simple as all the Tories will jump to reform, they won’t, they'll split 4 ways. LibDem, Reform, Labour and Green. The NIMBY Tories are already jumping to Greens, lots of former Tories are indeed going to Labour, the LibDems are a natural home for many too as this election will show 

Nah, sorry Tories are effectively dead, the RWM will also split in their support I think, you might even find with the Tories relegated to a side show, some elements may even break for LibDems and others will go to Refom.

I genuinely think we're living in one of those watershed moments in British politics

Politics in the UK is very much about brands and the Conservative Party as a brand is toxic and that’s just really hard to overturn

[Genie]

 

[DCJonah]

1 hour ago, bickster said:

Which demographic group do you see voting for them in large numbers in ten years time? Even before this election was called and all the ludicrous things that have gone before us, the only demographic that was majority voting for them was 70+ Most of the demographic groups below that despised them.

It is currently getting quite tight between who will be the opposition and that is important, very important. How many of the leader debates are between the leaders of the top two parties, under FPTP, you need to be at least the opposition. I didn’t see them being in that position in another election cycle and that was before the current post election announcement nonsense. The latest polling will be rather revealing I think.

If the LibDems are the opposition, they have a great platform to build on and will appeal much more to the traditional One Nation typical Tory voting public than either Reform or the rump of the Tory Party.

Reform and Farage have a ceiling (Farage isn’t universally like even among the more rightward looking Tories)and their votes much like the LibDems currently are very localised, they also arent a party and don’t have anything of a localised structure. There’s no internal democracy. They are also a one trick pony, there’s Farage and… oh yes 30p Lee possibly. 
It’s not even as simple as all the Tories will jump to reform, they won’t, they'll split 4 ways. LibDem, Reform, Labour and Green. The NIMBY Tories are already jumping to Greens, lots of former Tories are indeed going to Labour, the LibDems are a natural home for many too as this election will show 

Nah, sorry Tories are effectively dead, the RWM will also split in their support I think, you might even find with the Tories relegated to a side show, some elements may even break for LibDems and others will go to Refom.

I genuinely think we're living in one of those watershed moments in British politics

Politics in the UK is very much about brands and the Conservative Party as a brand is toxic and that’s just really hard to overturn

It's hard to disagree and you've been predicting their downfall for quite some time. I think you're absolutely correct. 

Quite mad to think how they've gone from their massive majority to this in one election cycle. Has that ever happened before? 

[one_ian_taylor]

There is a key difference  between reform and the Tories. One party has adopted an oak for its symbol,  whereas the other is known for its bigger tree

Edited June 8 by one_ian_taylor

[The Fun Factory]

All of the stuff about stopping LTN's and pushing back of the 20 mph limit in Wales is desperate, desperate stuff from the Tories. Against local politics, against devolution, and against their own C02 reduction targets. It shows that they are an utter irrelevance and are doing anything to stop the bleeding of support  to Reform. They haven't rallied since the snap call for an election, if anything they look even worse. Sunak is a clueless technocrat who knows nothing of campaigning on the stump and they could get absolutely annihilated come election night.

Edited June 8 by The Fun Factory

[NurembergVillan]

I'm well up for an all-nighter in the style of a Match Thread on election night.

[bickster]

2 hours ago, DCJonah said:

Quite mad to think how they've gone from their massive majority to this in one election cycle. Has that ever happened before? 

Well you could look at articles about Canada 93 for an almost complete wipeout of a ruling party

In the UK there’s the 1906 election where the Tories lost 256 seats in 670 seat parliament to be left with 156 MPs and that is to date their worst ever general election performance, so you'll see just how monumental this defeat they are about to get is. There are as yet undiscovered superlatives that should be used to describe what is about to happen.

[Genie]

Johnson is the luckiest man alive, laid the groundwork with all the Brexit lies because that’s what underpins all this mess. Now he’s chilling on the beach in between making millions doing speeches and books.

 

[bickster]

 

[bickster]

The quote is in the story in the subsequent tweet, which I believe for once in unpaywalled.