Jon Posted July 29 Share Posted July 29 1 hour ago, chrisp65 said: MP’s select the final two, which go to the national membership. Membership votes for the most right wing of the two offered. The most extreme candidate has not recently always been a white middle aged male. Every chance that in a run off between Tugmyhat and Badenoch, she would win comfortably. Yep. They elected crazy liz. If Badenoch gets down to the final 2, she'll win imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted July 29 Moderator Share Posted July 29 30 minutes ago, Jon said: Yep. They elected crazy liz. If Badenoch gets down to the final 2, she'll win imo Not sure she beats every contender though I can see Jenrick beating her because he's just throbby enough and not erm... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisp65 Posted July 29 Share Posted July 29 Jenrick can point to his record of painting out murals and cartoons at a childrens asylum reception centre, specifically to make it less welcoming for children. They’ll like that, tory members. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted July 29 Moderator Share Posted July 29 Patel - not even sure why she's standing. No chance Stride - was against Brexit, not a prayer of winning not sure what his game is by doing so Jenrick - current favourite with the membership Badenoch - The intelligent nutter, former favourite with the membership Cleverley - I think he's standing because his ego won't let him not stand. No chance Tugendhat - Why this man is popular is beyond me, he's started to talk tough, which really doesn't suit him as he has the personality of something caught by a trawler but he does appear to have support So on the left you'll have Tugendhat and Stride - Tugendhat will win out of those two In the middle you have Cleverly who is trying to appeal to both sides (this will not work) And on the right you have three nutters, Patel will lose first then its between Badenoch and Jenrick, I have a sneaking feeling Jenrick might win the right over. Badenoch doesn't make friends easily whereas Jenrick, has let plenty of friends build and extend their properties and makes friends easily My prediction, Jenrick will win over Tugendhat when it goes to the members 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisp65 Posted July 29 Share Posted July 29 4 minutes ago, bickster said: Patel - not even sure why she's standing. No chance Stride - was against Brexit, not a prayer of winning not sure what his game is by doing so Jenrick - current favourite with the membership Badenoch - The intelligent nutter, former favourite with the membership Cleverley - I think he's standing because his ego won't let him not stand. No chance Tugendhat - Why this man is popular is beyond me, he's started to talk tough, which really doesn't suit him as he has the personality of something caught by a trawler but he does appear to have support So on the left you'll have Tugendhat and Stride - Tugendhat will win out of those two In the middle you have Cleverly who is trying to appeal to both sides (this will not work) And on the right you have three nutters, Patel will lose first then its between Badenoch and Jenrick, I have a sneaking feeling Jenrick might win the right over. Badenoch doesn't make friends easily whereas Jenrick, has let plenty of friends build and extend their properties and makes friends easily My prediction, Jenrick will win over Tugendhat when it goes to the members There was a theory from someone, (maybe Balls of the Spectator?) that with such a reduced number of MP’s and perhaps some time to reflect on nutters not translating in to winners, Stride could potentially be the blocker to the right wing option. That if somehow they got Tuggy and Stride on the members ballot then the loony option simply wasn’t available to the membership. It wasn’t a theory anyone thought could work, they were simply discussing why he was even in the mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted July 29 Moderator Share Posted July 29 3 minutes ago, chrisp65 said: they were simply discussing why he was even in the mix. It's a good question, I just put it down to... being thick (see Cleverly) Stride, Cleverley and Patel will be gone after round 1. Not one of them will reach the first threshold I see the real battle in all of this being between Jenrick and Badenoch and I think Jenrick will win because there will be an awful lot of grassroots members telling their new MP that he's the one to go for. but whoever wins between Badenoch and Jenrick will win, no doubts about it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OutByEaster? Posted July 29 Moderator Share Posted July 29 I think for a lot of voters (not Tory members, but the people they'll be trying to appeal to in real elections) it's as simple as; "If I've heard of them, I don't want them". The crop that have come through under the stain of Boris and Co are unelectable, the electorate associate them with a time when they were lied to, robbed and conned. If the Tory party understood that very basic premise, they'd be a long way to recovery. Thankfully, the Tory party do not understand that very basic premise and a lot of them are still on the "we weren't crazy enough" train, so I reckon we're safe for a good while yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted July 29 Moderator Share Posted July 29 15 minutes ago, OutByEaster? said: I think for a lot of voters (not Tory members, but the people they'll be trying to appeal to in real elections) it's as simple as; "If I've heard of them, I don't want them". The crop that have come through under the stain of Boris and Co are unelectable, the electorate associate them with a time when they were lied to, robbed and conned. If the Tory party understood that very basic premise, they'd be a long way to recovery. Thankfully, the Tory party do not understand that very basic premise and a lot of them are still on the "we weren't crazy enough" train, so I reckon we're safe for a good while yet. There is definitely an element of this. I keep mentioning death and all that, even the point you've raised there is an extinction level event because they have so few MPs and it takes two election cycles for any new ones (of which there are much fewer than normal) to get "known" potentially even longer in opposition. Just count how many leaders they went through from 1997 to 2010. 4 it took and even then they only had a coalition after a global financial meltdown. Cameron wasn't even an MP in 1997, He didn't get elected until 2001 If all that plays out again in a similar timescale - the way of the dinosaurs! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted July 29 Moderator Share Posted July 29 Oh the other thing with Badenoch is she is closely associated with Gove (he's running her campaign) and the Johnsonites in the party hate her because of that and Mad Nad's seemingly every day has something else to say about Gove / Cummings to constantly remind them that Badenoch is their enemy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blandy Posted July 29 Author Moderator Share Posted July 29 Why is Patel seemingly a long shot? Doesn’t she tick the very right boxes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delboy54 Posted July 29 Share Posted July 29 Well as a Villa fan living in the shires I hope that a tax isn't put on the use of my electric gates, peacock food and a mandatory increase in the derisory amount I pay in wages for "the staff".... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OutByEaster? Posted July 29 Moderator Share Posted July 29 10 minutes ago, blandy said: Why is Patel seemingly a long shot? Doesn’t she tick the very right boxes? Perhaps because she ticks all of the very right boxes? There seems to be a flickering flame of self awareness in parts of the party. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blandy Posted July 29 Author Moderator Share Posted July 29 2 minutes ago, OutByEaster? said: Perhaps because she ticks all of the very right boxes? There seems to be a flickering flame of self awareness in parts of the party. Badenoch is as bad and she seems like one of the favourites. They’re a curious bunch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chindie Posted July 29 VT Supporter Share Posted July 29 Patel is too much the efficient ruthless evil. The party in ways wants Skeletor, not Vader. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted July 29 Moderator Share Posted July 29 6 minutes ago, blandy said: Why is Patel seemingly a long shot? Doesn’t she tick the very right boxes? Hated by the membership and MPs alike. She's on the right but pitching centre, unlike Cleverley who is in the centre but pitching right She won't carry through the battle on the right to reach the last two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OutByEaster? Posted July 29 Moderator Share Posted July 29 2 minutes ago, blandy said: Badenoch is as bad and she seems like one of the favourites. They’re a curious bunch. I think Badenoch perhaps hasn't been rolled in the sh*t of the last few years quite so often so maybe comes in on a bit more of a clean sheet. Patel is synonymous with everything that caused the collapse of the last election - even if she doesn't seem to have noticed. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OutByEaster? Posted July 29 Moderator Share Posted July 29 She's had enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisp65 Posted July 29 Share Posted July 29 I don’t think she’s had enough, potentially she’s worked out the next leader won’t be the one that leads them in to a GE, so she’ll wait her time, acting the benign elder politician back to save the amateurs. In her head. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted July 29 Moderator Share Posted July 29 Just now, chrisp65 said: I don’t think she’s had enough, potentially she’s worked out the next leader won’t be the one that leads them in to a GE, so she’ll wait her time, acting the benign elder politician back to save the amateurs. In her head. Well that and she couldn't find 10 Tory MPs who liked her enough 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted July 29 Moderator Share Posted July 29 This has nowt to do with the membership but it does show why MPs won't support her Also worth noting.... No Mel Stride or RObert Jenrick 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts