bickster Posted July 7 Moderator Share Posted July 7 Amusement. And yes those tweets are still up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Demitri_C Posted July 7 Share Posted July 7 46 minutes ago, blandy said: It doesn't though Dem. I mean when Blair won and the tories were routed, whatever people's views on policies and all that, there's no way the UK was remotely like N. Korea etc. Same when the evil witch won. Those places don't hold free and fair elections, they're not democracies, Mps and ministers there only lose their seats if the supreme leader decides they're a threat, or whatever. We have multiple parties quite openly and legally canvassing for votes and members and all that. In the places you mention, they don't. They lock up anyone not "onside" and have at absolute best "sham" allowed parties that are only allowed to exist to give a veneer of some sort of "scrutiny". Anyone else gets killed. Its very corrupt i agree but im not saying the actually voting process will be changed and thats not what my point was intended to be. im saying you will have the same leader in place like these countries. No one wants that. Lets just say labour won the next 10 elections they could do what they wanted as they know they are getting back in. No one wants that. My whole argument was about having a strong opposition and i stand by that point. If you have the same leader/party in power unopposed as they win eveey election it becomes like those countries where you just have one ruler. A better example is erogden of turkey (although again he does seem as corrupt as these guys) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted July 7 Moderator Share Posted July 7 1 minute ago, Demitri_C said: No one wants that. Lets just say labour won the next 10 elections they could do what they wanted as they know they are getting back in. No one wants that. No one wants what the country voted for ten times in a row? Eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blandy Posted July 7 Author Moderator Share Posted July 7 4 minutes ago, Demitri_C said: Its very corrupt i agree but im not saying the actually voting process will be changed and thats not what my point was intended to be. im saying you will have the same leader in place like these countries. I don't see that as being the case, Dem. I mean Bunter Johnson got in, very decent majority, 3rd Tory win in a row. Behaved like an absolute arse and got removed by his own lot, and then they did an election and were routed. In. the UK, for all its flaws, our system essentially rejects any party after at most 3 goes at it. People get bored/frustrated/angry/whatever and we get a different lot. I think things are changing in the west generally and stuff is more volatile, and there's gonna be more changes and more instability and the chances of any long living government being in place are small to negligible. The system and circumstances combine to make it nigh on impossible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted July 7 Moderator Share Posted July 7 1 hour ago, Rds1983 said: People tactically voted to get them out of power, this was their lowest point in ages due to unbelievable levels of corruption and incompetence, yet they still had 25% of the vote, add in Reform and they've got 40%. If they can sort their Reform problem out then they've got a lot of voters still. This isn’t backed up by the polling. The reform vote is not comprised of 100% former Tory voters. Some of those Reform voters are former Labour voters. A good percentage of the Reform voters hate the Tory Party with a passion and will never vote for them. Some of those Reform voters are hardline UKIP/Brexit/Reform voters and have voted for them for years whenever they could. Also, if you use the (extremely simple and flawed) method of adding the Reform and Tory votes together in a seat to say if it wasn’t for Reform the Tories would have won these seats… the Tories would still have lost… and heavily if the Tories move towards Reform they firstly will not garner all the Reform votes and as everything has an equal and opposite reaction, they will lose more one nation type voters (most likely to LibDems) The very real issue the Tories face is how to get votes from both ends of the spectrum and as they’ve spent the last 14 years in govt and pushing peoples opinions further rightward with their quite frankly racist immigration messaging, they've polarised opinion. If they move towards the right (which they will in my opinion) they lose more One Nation types, if they move in the opposite direction, they push the other side towards Reform. I also won’t bore you with the age demographics again but that will also play a part. But just solely on policy I don’t see how they broaden their appeal, they are stuck in a quandary entirely of their own making. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ml1dch Posted July 7 Share Posted July 7 40 minutes ago, bickster said: Also, if you use the (extremely simple and flawed) method of adding the Reform and Tory votes together in a seat to say if it wasn’t for Reform the Tories would have won these seats… the Tories would still have lost… and heavily if the Tories move towards Reform they firstly will not garner all the Reform votes and as everything has an equal and opposite reaction, they will lose more one nation type voters (most likely to LibDems) I'm nowhere near as gung-ho as you on the "Tories are finished forever" theory, but for anyone doing the "oh, peaks and troughs of political popularity, it'll swing back, it always does" stuff, I'd be keen to know which bits that the Tories have lost, they think are the ones they win back for this to happen, and how and why they win them back. The same question in 2015 / '17 / '19, I'd say that it was a fairly easy question to answer. People who had switched from Labour to Tory probably switch back when they realise that the Tories doesn't actually want to give them the things they promised they would. If the key to the Tories fighting back is to attract all the Reform voters back to them, how is that going to win back Oxfordshire, Wales, Hertfordshire, outer London etc etc. Apart from generic "old people", it's hard to identify a demographic that the Tories look like they want to try and attract. It feels like the Tories have abandoned the middle classes in a much more existential and long-term way than Labour's supposed abandonment of the working classes was. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Demitri_C Posted July 7 Share Posted July 7 1 hour ago, blandy said: I don't see that as being the case, Dem. I mean Bunter Johnson got in, very decent majority, 3rd Tory win in a row. Behaved like an absolute arse and got removed by his own lot, and then they did an election and were routed. In. the UK, for all its flaws, our system essentially rejects any party after at most 3 goes at it. People get bored/frustrated/angry/whatever and we get a different lot. I think things are changing in the west generally and stuff is more volatile, and there's gonna be more changes and more instability and the chances of any long living government being in place are small to negligible. The system and circumstances combine to make it nigh on impossible. Yeah you are right you are seeing alot of changes in the west- i mean look at France at the moment they are turning extremely right wing after being under the leftist movement for a while. History tells us this isnt the end of tory party. It will be like when labour lost power to the coalition people will eventually get fed up of labour and then go back to the tories as as happened now with starmer. As someone who is not affiliated with either labour or conservative i want a strong opposition not a weak one. One that will challenge their government on their record like starmer did with rishi and bozo. I expect whoever takes over as tory leader will do that eventually. But now you have farage on the scene too so its going to get very uncomfortable for starmer if he doesn't deliver on his promises 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blandy Posted July 7 Author Moderator Share Posted July 7 21 minutes ago, ml1dch said: I'm nowhere near as gung-ho as you on the "Tories are finished forever" theory, but for anyone doing the "oh, peaks and troughs of political popularity, it'll swing back, it always does" stuff, I'd be keen to know which bits that the Tories have lost, they think are the ones they win back for this to happen, and how and why they win them back. The same question in 2015 / '17 / '19, I'd say that it was a fairly easy question to answer. People who had switched from Labour to Tory probably switch back when they realise that the Tories doesn't actually want to give them the things they promised they would. If the key to the Tories fighting back is to attract all the Reform voters back to them, how is that going to win back Oxfordshire, Wales, Hertfordshire, outer London etc etc. Apart from generic "old people", it's hard to identify a demographic that the Tories look like they want to try and attract. It feels like the Tories have abandoned the middle classes in a much more existential and long-term way than Labour's supposed abandonment of the working classes was. I think the way they come back is the way Labour did. Obviously first they need to wake up to what I posted earlier- it’s the centre ground that wins uk general elections. Once they’ve done that, then they challenge on “Labour haven’t fixed x, y or z” and “we’ve changed our party, we’re no longer the party of Liz Truss and unserious whoppers”. It’s likely the world will become more fractured and isolationist because of resources being scarce, war mongering like China and Taiwan, whoever follows Putin, Trump and so on, and this will be a massive problem for Labour (and all incumbent western governments). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted July 7 Moderator Share Posted July 7 13 minutes ago, Demitri_C said: History tells us this isnt the end of tory party. Tell me how the Tory Party survives, not just you think they will, what will be their strategy, how will they achieve survival, which sectors of society will they appeal to and how do they turn those sectors of society into supporting them whilst remaining true to their faux ideology? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisp65 Posted July 7 Share Posted July 7 40 minutes ago, ml1dch said: I'm nowhere near as gung-ho as you on the "Tories are finished forever" theory, but for anyone doing the "oh, peaks and troughs of political popularity, it'll swing back, it always does" stuff, I'd be keen to know which bits that the Tories have lost, they think are the ones they win back for this to happen, and how and why they win them back. The same question in 2015 / '17 / '19, I'd say that it was a fairly easy question to answer. People who had switched from Labour to Tory probably switch back when they realise that the Tories doesn't actually want to give them the things they promised they would. If the key to the Tories fighting back is to attract all the Reform voters back to them, how is that going to win back Oxfordshire, Wales, Hertfordshire, outer London etc etc. Apart from generic "old people", it's hard to identify a demographic that the Tories look like they want to try and attract. It feels like the Tories have abandoned the middle classes in a much more existential and long-term way than Labour's supposed abandonment of the working classes was. As an extreme example, but for the sake of an example, Liz Truss constituency North Norfolk Digital. Labour have won that seat on a low turnout, with 26% of the vote. 26% of 59% of the electorate won that seat. The tories came second, 600 votes behind. I would not suggest they’ve had their last ever tory MP. My own constituency, again lowest turnout in my lifetime. The winner got 6,000 less votes this time than when they lost in the last two elections. Reform only got 1,500 more votes than UKIP did a decade ago. Politics is not over. They will win seats back because people wanted change, and for a hundred reasons, they will eventually want change again. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Davkaus Posted July 7 Share Posted July 7 I think the aging demographic argument is perhaps a bit simplistic as well. Give it ten years of people building up annoyances with Labour (which will always happen, no government is perfect, and people will eventually start to think it's time for a change), and unless the lib dems or reform achieve something very impressive, that default change will be the Tories. The vote share by demographic isn't set in stone. They've done very little to give anyone under around state pension age a reason to vote for them, but people will no more be voting for this carnation in ten years than people were voting for Miliband or Brown this time out. They're gone for now, I'll enjoy it while it lasts 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rds1983 Posted July 7 VT Supporter Share Posted July 7 2 hours ago, bickster said: This isn’t backed up by the polling. The reform vote is not comprised of 100% former Tory voters. Some of those Reform voters are former Labour voters. A good percentage of the Reform voters hate the Tory Party with a passion and will never vote for them. Some of those Reform voters are hardline UKIP/Brexit/Reform voters and have voted for them for years whenever they could. Also, if you use the (extremely simple and flawed) method of adding the Reform and Tory votes together in a seat to say if it wasn’t for Reform the Tories would have won these seats… the Tories would still have lost… and heavily if the Tories move towards Reform they firstly will not garner all the Reform votes and as everything has an equal and opposite reaction, they will lose more one nation type voters (most likely to LibDems) The very real issue the Tories face is how to get votes from both ends of the spectrum and as they’ve spent the last 14 years in govt and pushing peoples opinions further rightward with their quite frankly racist immigration messaging, they've polarised opinion. If they move towards the right (which they will in my opinion) they lose more One Nation types, if they move in the opposite direction, they push the other side towards Reform. I also won’t bore you with the age demographics again but that will also play a part. But just solely on policy I don’t see how they broaden their appeal, they are stuck in a quandary entirely of their own making. Even with all that, at their lowest point, weighed down by endless scandal after scandal and utter incompetence, the Tories still got 25% of the vote. I can't see Labour doing enough in the next 5 year's for them to gain anymore votes. They've got too many fires to put out and people will start blaming them for not fixing everything. I'd love to be wrong but I'm sure we'll see another Torie government in the next 10 to 15 year's. They've been in power for basically 30 of the last 40 year's, they are very good at winning elections and will eventually get their house in order. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted July 9 Moderator Share Posted July 9 Someone missed the voting for the new Chairman of the 1922 ctte (So did Edward Leigh and Jeremy Hunt fwiw) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post ml1dch Posted July 9 Popular Post Share Posted July 9 And there I was feeling sad about how the Tory psychodrama would be less fun with them humiliated and out of power. The last line of this in particular is spectacular. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Davkaus Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 I'm genuinely surprised Sunak is still turning up and didn't just flip them the Vs as he walked out on Friday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ml1dch Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 4 minutes ago, Davkaus said: I'm genuinely surprised Sunak is still turning up and didn't just flip them the Vs as he walked out on Friday Me too, and it's genuinely to his credit that he hasn't. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sidcow Posted July 9 VT Supporter Share Posted July 9 6 minutes ago, ml1dch said: Me too, and it's genuinely to his credit that he hasn't. There will be skin in the game somewhere. Question is how long does he stay an MP for after he's handed over the reins? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
one_ian_taylor Posted July 9 VT Supporter Share Posted July 9 39 minutes ago, ml1dch said: And there I was feeling sad about how the Tory psychodrama would be less fun with them humiliated and out of power. The last line of this in particular is spectacular. Thanks for that - very enjoyable. I thought the Braverman line would be hard to beat, but the last line really is the clincher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Demitri_C Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 On 07/07/2024 at 17:01, Davkaus said: I think the aging demographic argument is perhaps a bit simplistic as well. Give it ten years of people building up annoyances with Labour (which will always happen, no government is perfect, and people will eventually start to think it's time for a change), and unless the lib dems or reform achieve something very impressive, that default change will be the Tories. The vote share by demographic isn't set in stone. They've done very little to give anyone under around state pension age a reason to vote for them, but people will no more be voting for this carnation in ten years than people were voting for Miliband or Brown this time out. They're gone for now, I'll enjoy it while it lasts Thats how i see it too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisp65 Posted July 10 Share Posted July 10 fight fight fight 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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