limpid Posted June 15 Administrator Share Posted June 15 56 minutes ago, bickster said: Electoral Commission So official tory figures then 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blandy Posted June 15 Author Moderator Share Posted June 15 29 minutes ago, Danwichmann said: Under FPTP, where one party normally has a majority so can win almost every vote in parliament, how important is the size of the opposition? They can make a lot of noise but a small Tory party can do that as well as big one. But if Labour gets a majority of 50 rather than 200, does it make a material difference to their ability to pass legislation? Not really sure of the answers myself, just speculating. It’s arguable that big majorities lead to “actual stuff getting done” and small ones to “nothing changes”, because with a big majority internal debate and rebels don’t have a sway. Whether the stuff that gets done is good or bad is obviously a personal opinion, but “change” needs a big majority. Thatcher, Blair, Johnson, even (with Brexit) changed the country perhaps more than Cameron, Major etc. but there does need to be credible and competent opposition to point out flaws and errors and drawbacks and so on. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sidcow Posted June 15 VT Supporter Share Posted June 15 To be honest the country is so utterly **** right now after years of tory neglect, a strong government is probably needed just to get stuff done without any pressure. Seems they're going to revolutionise planning laws which is badly needed to a) support green investment and industries which will generate wealth and help net zero and b) help resolve housing issues. There are many other things then need fixing with swift action and no pandering to nutty factions. Ok maybe mistakes wi be made but I'm sure it will overall be much better just getting shit done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xann Posted June 15 Share Posted June 15 1 hour ago, bickster said: Tory donations in first week of election campaign 2019: £5.7 million 2024: £570,000 Contracts and knighthoods. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted June 15 Moderator Share Posted June 15 12 minutes ago, Xann said: Contracts and knighthoods. Well yes, obviously but a 90% drop in donations from the first week of the previous election is absolutely massive. And this is on the back of this being the first election of the new much higher spending caps for the election, they'll have been hoping for more than the last election not 90% less. This is also the reason the Tory Ad machine came to a grinding halt you’d have to think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xann Posted June 15 Share Posted June 15 Corbyn also said no govt money for companies utilising tax wheezes abroad. How much are we down for Covid alone? Global laughing stock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjmooney Posted June 15 VT Supporter Share Posted June 15 2 hours ago, delboy54 said: However in our type of democracy there needs to be some sort of opposition party. At the moment the Tories cannot seem to wipe their ar$es without making a mess of it....so what is the opposition to Labour going to look like? Depends if there are any closet left wing MPs left in the PLP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ml1dch Posted June 15 Share Posted June 15 4 minutes ago, mjmooney said: Depends if there are any closet left wing MPs left in the PLP. You joke, but how about this for "maximum political banter" outcome. The current polls turn out to be correct and the total is something like 500 Labour, 50 Lib Dem, 50 Tory. Early in the Parliament, Labour introduce something unpalatable to the left of the party so there is a first big rebellion. When they see how many Labour MPs vote against the legislation, they realise that they outnumber all the other parties in number, so form a schism and become "The Socialist Labour Party" with 70 or so MPs, and form the new opposition to the Government under their newly elected leader, and new Leader of the Opposition...Jeremy Corbyn. Make it happen people. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjmooney Posted June 15 VT Supporter Share Posted June 15 9 minutes ago, ml1dch said: new Leader of the Opposition...Jeremy Corbyn. He'd have to be an MP first... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted June 15 Moderator Share Posted June 15 11 minutes ago, mjmooney said: He'd have to be an MP first... Yes and there appears to be an assumption by lots of commentators that he'll win because “he has a lot of local support” etc. Labour canvassers in the constituency are trying to paint a different picture. It’s definitely one of those impossible to call seats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomav84 Posted June 15 VT Supporter Share Posted June 15 (edited) 2 hours ago, delboy54 said: Looking like Labour will win with a big majority. However in our type of democracy there needs to be some sort of opposition party. At the moment the Tories cannot seem to wipe their ar$es without making a mess of it....so what is the opposition to Labour going to look like? question (as i don't know the answer) but can a coelition exist for an opposition? i do wonder if lib dems get the 2nd most seats, whether reform/tories join to form a right leaning opposition to add, i do agree every government needs an opposition, but there's an argument that labour do need to be left alone for a bit to start cleaning up the mess rather than just having every decision they make disagreed with Edited June 15 by tomav84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ml1dch Posted June 15 Share Posted June 15 1 minute ago, tomav84 said: question (as i don't know the answer) but can a coelition exist for an opposition? i do wonder if lib dems get the 2nd most seats, whether reform/tories join to form a right leaning opposition It came up on this thread a few days ago - I think we broadly settled on it probably can exist (nothing to say that it can't) but it would probably be a decision for the Speaker. And it would be difficult to elect one in the first place without a clear opposition. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sidcow Posted June 15 VT Supporter Share Posted June 15 48 minutes ago, tomav84 said: question (as i don't know the answer) but can a coelition exist for an opposition? i do wonder if lib dems get the 2nd most seats, whether reform/tories join to form a right leaning opposition to add, i do agree every government needs an opposition, but there's an argument that labour do need to be left alone for a bit to start cleaning up the mess rather than just having every decision they make disagreed with What would be the point of a right leaning opposition to a right leaning party? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjmooney Posted June 15 VT Supporter Share Posted June 15 I assume the leader of the opposition will be Sunak/his successor, or possibly Ed Davey, with the two parties effectively being a coalition opposition on most issues. But if they're tied on seats, yeah, who knows who leads? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted June 15 Moderator Share Posted June 15 13 minutes ago, mjmooney said: I assume the leader of the opposition will be Sunak/his successor, or possibly Ed Davey, with the two parties effectively being a coalition opposition on most issues. But if they're tied on seats, yeah, who knows who leads? Tory and LibDems tied in second on seats would be hilarious on the one hand an briefly fascinating to see what happens on the other as we discovered the other day, no one knows what would happen, the legislation that exists doesn’t appear that well thought out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
limpid Posted June 15 Administrator Share Posted June 15 3 minutes ago, bickster said: Tory and LibDems tied in second on seats would be hilarious on the one hand an briefly fascinating to see what happens on the other as we discovered the other day, no one knows what would happen, the legislation that exists doesn’t appear that well thought out. In the absence of precedent, he king will have to choose his official opposition. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted June 15 Moderator Share Posted June 15 1 hour ago, tomav84 said: question (as i don't know the answer) but can a coelition exist for an opposition? i do wonder if lib dems get the 2nd most seats, whether reform/tories join to form a right leaning opposition to add, i do agree every government needs an opposition, but there's an argument that labour do need to be left alone for a bit to start cleaning up the mess rather than just having every decision they make disagreed with Unless the two parties intend to form a mutually beneficial electoral alliance in the future, I really don’t see the point in a coalition in opposition. Why would the party second in the seats table voluntarily remove the massive advantage they have over the parties below them? Thinking out loud as I type this. There is one interesting possibility that no one has discussed over this and it isn’t the Tory / Reform alliance and it is much more likely. If the LibDems finish third in the seats, it might make sense (on some levels) for them to enter an alliance with the SNP & Plaid if that takes them over the Tories in second. The LibDems are likely to only have a few seats in Wales and Scotland so maybe deals can be done there. That then may force the Tories into an alliance with Reform and possibly the DUP to get the numbers back. The possibilities are rather dependent on the numbers though Meanwhile, Labour laughs… a lot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
one_ian_taylor Posted June 15 VT Supporter Share Posted June 15 3 hours ago, blandy said: It’s arguable that big majorities lead to “actual stuff getting done” and small ones to “nothing changes”, because with a big majority internal debate and rebels don’t have a sway. Whether the stuff that gets done is good or bad is obviously a personal opinion, but “change” needs a big majority. Thatcher, Blair, Johnson, even (with Brexit) changed the country perhaps more than Cameron, Major etc. but there does need to be credible and competent opposition to point out flaws and errors and drawbacks and so on. As posted in the GE thread, it means the rebels potentially have less sway, but depends on the issue. On the other hand, the government's ability to control the party by giving out government positions is no greater (without expanding the number of positions), and there are more people to keep happy. But it seems that Labour have already been trying to stamp out the potential for unrest by removing candidates that might be problematic. Not just MPs either Richard Parker e.g. is also a loyalist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
one_ian_taylor Posted June 15 VT Supporter Share Posted June 15 5 hours ago, bickster said: Tory donations in first week of election campaign 2019: £5.7 million 2024: £570,000 10% of previous campaign Thats a serious financial blackhole I've been doing my bit to help too, posting back the freepost survey to my local Tory candidate, blank of course. Grow the hole! Grow the hole! 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted June 15 Moderator Share Posted June 15 1 minute ago, one_ian_taylor said: I've been doing my bit to help too, posting back the freepost survey to my local Tory candidate, blank of course. Grow the hole! Grow the hole! Is this the small business one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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