sidcow Posted March 15 VT Supporter Share Posted March 15 1 hour ago, bickster said: Just announcing they aren't standing again The GE announcement will no longer be soon Yeah, I meant are they handing in their letters that they don't intend to re-stand for election earlier than you might think, which would indicate an earlier election than October time. Or maybe they're just giving their constituencies plenty of time to select a successor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Fun Factory Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 35 minutes ago, ml1dch said: I'm becoming more of the opinion that something snaps somewhere which stops it being completely in Sunak's control. The earliest it will be is late October (Halloween would be funny). There is no way these Tory MP'S are going to waste their last summer recess jollys campaigning for a doomed landside defeat. Gives them more time to find a new job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VILLAMARV Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 (edited) 16 minutes ago, The Fun Factory said: Gives them more time to find a new job. They can't have been doing this lobbying thing right then Edited March 15 by VILLAMARV too many e's mate 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ml1dch Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 23 minutes ago, Genie said: How much notice do they realistically need to give? I’d have thought a 2-3 months at least. About five weeks I think is the time needed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted March 15 Moderator Share Posted March 15 Just now, ml1dch said: About five weeks I think is the time needed. technically its 25 working days so for May 2nd the deadline is actually by my reckoning Monday 25th March because of the two easter bank holidays, not one article I've read has that date but there's always a chance I'm wrong Quote The latest date parliament can dissolve is “the beginning of the day that is the fifth anniversary of the day on which it first met” (17 December 2019), with the election being held 25 working days after that date. This means the latest date for the next general election would be 28 January 2025. Institute of Government Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisp65 Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 I don’t think the tories can afford another winter cull of their remaining voters. Autumn, not so slippery they daren’t go out, not too hot to rile up the liver spots. I’m actually waiting for someone from the militant nutter wing to suggest there is too much of a national emergency to have an election just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ml1dch Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 5 minutes ago, chrisp65 said: Autumn, not so slippery they daren’t go out, not too hot to rile up the liver spots. But right after the height of the latest summer of small boats not being fixed, leading to more Tory --> Reform switchers. And not shortly after a local election bloodbath which gives a narrative of "Tories are being elecotrally smashed everywhere". May was probably his best opportunity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted March 15 Moderator Share Posted March 15 5 minutes ago, ml1dch said: May was probably his best opportunity. Yep, like I said yesterday, I'm prepared to wait a few extra months, the longer this goes on just speeds up their ultimate demise. More of their core voters will also be dead by the autumn plus more younger non-tory voters will also be eligible to vote. Those on their own should give a back of the fag packet estimate a further swing to Not-Tory of about 450,000+ (death rate for 6 months is about 300,000 , people reaching voting age about 500,00 in 6 months) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ml1dch Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 3 minutes ago, bickster said: Yep, like I said yesterday, I'm prepared to wait a few extra months, the longer this goes on just speeds up their ultimate demise. More of their core voters will also be dead by the autumn plus more younger non-tory voters will also be eligible to vote. Those on their own should give a back of the fag packet estimate a further swing to Not-Tory of about 450,000+ (death rate for 6 months is about 300,000 , people reaching voting age about 500,00 in 6 months) The one argument in their favour that I can think of for September is if you time it for the period when students are a bit in flux between being away / at home then you might wipe out a few tens of thousands of votes. But if they are losing a few thousand votes in University towns and cities, that's unlikely to be the difference between holding many of those seats or not. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted March 15 Moderator Share Posted March 15 Old people deserting Tories too Quote YouGov’s post-Budget poll for Tne Times shows the result – a shift from two-to-one to level-pegging, and another big jump in support for Reform. Peter Kellner Blog (yes I know its a blog post but I'm only quoting it for the YouGov data) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted March 15 Moderator Share Posted March 15 2 hours ago, ml1dch said: The one argument in their favour that I can think of for September is if you time it for the period when students are a bit in flux between being away / at home then you might wipe out a few tens of thousands of votes. But if they are losing a few thousand votes in University towns and cities, that's unlikely to be the difference between holding many of those seats or not. I'd also like to see an alternative system of campaigning to students. Normally dickhead student Union officers will encourage their students to register to vote in their University Town. Please stop with this nonsense unless its a marginal seat. In Liverpool for example they should be campaigning for students to vote at home, absolutely no use in them voting in Liverpool 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blandy Posted March 15 Author Moderator Share Posted March 15 57 minutes ago, bickster said: I'd also like to see an alternative system of campaigning to students. Normally dickhead student Union officers will encourage their students to register to vote in their University Town. Please stop with this nonsense unless its a marginal seat. In Liverpool for example they should be campaigning for students to vote at home, absolutely no use in them voting in Liverpool With the election being on a Thursday, if it’s in term time, then many students will be unable to get to their home town to vote, so are better off voting where they go to uni, surely. At least they get to vote that way. Yes I know postal votes and proxy votes, but still. Obviously if the election is in half term, then the opposite applies, but they spend more time at the uni town than home town, don’t they? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted March 15 Moderator Share Posted March 15 29 minutes ago, blandy said: With the election being on a Thursday, if it’s in term time, then many students will be unable to get to their home town to vote, so are better off voting where they go to uni, surely. At least they get to vote that way. Yes I know postal votes and proxy votes, but still. Obviously if the election is in half term, then the opposite applies, but they spend more time at the uni town than home town, don’t they? Not really, half of them don’t even go to lectures any more, the lectures are on but they are also usually put online too so if they miss them they can catch up remotely. Then when you take “Reading Weeks” and “Exam Leave” into account it’s probably about 50/50. Home/Uni. Students are always going home for long weekends or to other Uni towns to visit mates from school. They also traditionally do shite all on a Wednesday afternoon (sports take place at this point), lectures on a Friday afternoon are rare. Arts courses are usually quite light on the lecture schedule, Science less so. There’s a whole bunch of different factors for different students. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
desensitized43 Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 5 hours ago, chrisp65 said: I’m actually waiting for someone from the militant nutter wing to suggest there is too much of a national emergency to have an election just yet. They’d need to burn down the reichstag first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
limpid Posted March 16 Administrator Share Posted March 16 18 hours ago, blandy said: With the election being on a Thursday, if it’s in term time, then many students will be unable to get to their home town to vote, so are better off voting where they go to uni, surely. At least they get to vote that way. Yes I know postal votes and proxy votes, but still. Obviously if the election is in half term, then the opposite applies, but they spend more time at the uni town than home town, don’t they? I think most students still think of home as where they are from, not where they study. I don't have a strong feeling about which they choose to register in. I've had a postal vote since I was a student. I don;'t understand why most people don't have one. An increasing circle of my friends have them now. It means you can fill them in at your leisure rather than doing something on a certain day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ml1dch Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 I think if you've got to the stage where you're banking on 14/1 Susan Hall to win in London as the thing to launch your latest reset, it's safe to say that things are pretty bad. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted March 18 Moderator Share Posted March 18 5 minutes ago, ml1dch said: I think if you've got to the stage where you're banking on 14/1 Susan Hall to win in London as the thing to launch your latest reset, it's safe to say that things are pretty bad. And that’s just to get him to a flight to Rwanda taking off that no one cares about. Delusional 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sidcow Posted March 18 VT Supporter Share Posted March 18 (edited) 26 minutes ago, bickster said: And that’s just to get him to a flight to Rwanda taking off that no one cares about. Delusional Come on @bickster. It's what the public want. They've got a mandate from the public. Everyone in the street they talk to say they need to get the Rwanda flights off. He gets the medium decisions right. Etc etc etc. Edited March 18 by sidcow 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OutByEaster? Posted March 19 Moderator Share Posted March 19 I don't think there's anything that more ably demonstrates how far away from the electorate the Tories are than that they think getting a flight to Rwanda off might see them bounce back in the polls - no one wants this ridiculous, callous, expensive nonsense - they're living in a very peculiar bubble and it's about to go pop. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 Someone from Labour said that for the cost of 1 of the first 300 to be sent to Rwanda, 6 people could be sent to space with Virgin Galactic. I do have to laugh at the major hole in their logic too. 1) Rwanda is absolutely safe 2) The threat of being sent to Rwanda will be a major deterrent for people trying to come to the UK on small boats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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