Follyfoot Posted May 5, 2023 VT Supporter Share Posted May 5, 2023 Clean sweep for the Tories in my area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted May 5, 2023 Moderator Share Posted May 5, 2023 1 minute ago, Follyfoot said: Clean sweep for the Tories in my area We begin bombing in 5 minutes... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Fun Factory Posted May 5, 2023 Share Posted May 5, 2023 11 minutes ago, bickster said: Mid Suffolk might be worth watching, Tory Party in danger of losing to Green Party. The council leader has already lost her seat and I make it 16 seats they've won there so far, which is way more than any of the others. (34 seats total - previously second placed with 12 councillors) In those wards they won so far, they are winning by HUGE margins and they aren't standing in every ward either, some wards are straight LibDem / Tory fights (no Labour either) Seems that the tories are doing worst in fairly well-off areas which people moving to the greens or lidbdems. Labour getting back councillors in the north and some of the traditional bell weather marginals. Need to take all of this with a large dollop- local issues play a major part and turnout looks pretty dire generally. I still think the next ge could be quite tight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Follyfoot Posted May 5, 2023 VT Supporter Share Posted May 5, 2023 (edited) 1 minute ago, bickster said: We begin bombing in 5 minutes... Bring it on, we will fight you on the beaches etc Edited May 5, 2023 by Follyfoot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted May 5, 2023 Moderator Share Posted May 5, 2023 Just now, The Fun Factory said: I still think the next ge could be quite tight. I hope so but fear it won't be. I don't want a massive Labour victory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted May 5, 2023 Moderator Share Posted May 5, 2023 Just now, Follyfoot said: Bring it on, we will fight you on the beaches etc You want to travel a hundred miles to fight on a load of effluent, thats up to you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Follyfoot Posted May 5, 2023 VT Supporter Share Posted May 5, 2023 Just now, bickster said: You want to travel a hundred miles to fight on a load of effluent, thats up to you An Englishman’s beach is his castle, or something like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sidcow Posted May 5, 2023 VT Supporter Share Posted May 5, 2023 26 minutes ago, bobzy said: Was just coming to post, Solihull went more Conservative Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sidcow Posted May 5, 2023 VT Supporter Share Posted May 5, 2023 1 minute ago, Follyfoot said: An Englishman’s beach is his toilet Fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobzy Posted May 5, 2023 Share Posted May 5, 2023 Just now, sidcow said: Don't fear; Shirley West (I'm from the Westside) is still green Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Fun Factory Posted May 5, 2023 Share Posted May 5, 2023 2 minutes ago, bickster said: I hope so but fear it won't be. I don't want a massive Labour victory Can't see it myself. Starmer will have to do a Blair and also regain a load of Scottish seats. Could well be a minority Labour government with more of a 1977-style pact rather than 2010 coalition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted May 5, 2023 Moderator Share Posted May 5, 2023 12 minutes ago, The Fun Factory said: Starmer will have to do a Blair and also regain a load of Scottish seats Well, firstly, he won't and secondly, he's on course to but... The Labour needing Scotland thing is a myth. Blair won 56 Scottish seats in 1997 and gained a 176 Seat majority overall, he could have lost every single Scottish seat and still won a healthy working majority of over 50 Blair only gained I think it was 7 seats in Scotland in 1997 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Fun Factory Posted May 5, 2023 Share Posted May 5, 2023 Just now, bickster said: Well, firstly, he won't and secondly, he's on course to but... The Labour needing Scotland thing is a myth. Blair won 56 Scottish seats in 1997 and gained a 176 Seat majority overall, he could have lost every single Scottish seat and still won a healthy working majority of over 50 Yes but that was a historic landslide, Starmer at present doesn't look like meeting that. They will need to recover some of the lost seats up in Scotland which they have lost since 2010. They did so badly in 2019 that they have a huge amount of turnaround to get elected, even if the Tories look dreadful and unelectable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted May 5, 2023 Moderator Share Posted May 5, 2023 Just now, The Fun Factory said: Yes but that was a historic landslide, Starmer at present doesn't look like meeting that. They will need to recover some of the lost seats up in Scotland which they have lost since 2010. They did so badly in 2019 that they have a huge amount of turnaround to get elected, even if the Tories look dreadful and unelectable. No, they really won't have to do that in Scotland. Labour can win a comfortable majority without winning any more Scottish seats than they already hold The idea that Scotland is absolutely necessary for a Labour Victory is nonsense. With a generous vote split far more generous to the Tories and less generous for Labour than current polling of 30% Tory / 40% Lab / 12% LibDem / 6% Reform / 5% Green Labour would get a something like 75 seat majority but only 14 of those seats would be regained from the SNP I'm really not sure where the Labour needs Scotland myth came from (sometime post 1997 iirc) but it has never been very true and it still isn't true today I also happen to think the SNP vote share will drop considerably from the projection above and Labour will gain more than14 seats in Scotland but that is by the by Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ml1dch Posted May 5, 2023 Share Posted May 5, 2023 Good numbers on this one: Going from four seats to control of the council overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted May 5, 2023 Moderator Share Posted May 5, 2023 9 minutes ago, ml1dch said: Going from four seats to control of the council overnight. Ouch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted May 5, 2023 Moderator Share Posted May 5, 2023 I believe The Greens now have Mid-Suffolk with 12 results yet to be counted, they've reached 18 seats by my reckoning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sidcow Posted May 5, 2023 VT Supporter Share Posted May 5, 2023 It's interesting how well The Greens are doing. Is this just about effluent overflowing or is it (as I hope) much more than that. The next Government will have to look seriously at Environmental and Renewable Power issues because they're just going to leach more and more votes otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted May 5, 2023 Moderator Share Posted May 5, 2023 Mid Suffolk Update, I make it 20 seats won for the Greens out of 30 declared so far (4 more to go I think) There was even one ward I notice that elected two seats and only had three candidates, 2 Green and 1 Tory, the Tory lost heavily Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted May 5, 2023 Moderator Share Posted May 5, 2023 10 minutes ago, sidcow said: It's interesting how well The Greens are doing. Is this just about effluent overflowing or is it (as I hope) much more than that. The next Government will have to look seriously at Environmental and Renewable Power issues because they're just going to leach more and more votes otherwise. They've taken seats off both Tory and Labour but I suspect, far more from the Tories Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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