The banker loving, baby-eating Tory party thread (regenerated)

[Genie]

4 minutes ago, bickster said:

The shy Tory is a bit of a myth when it comes to opinion polls. It was supposed to be the reason that the polls were out in 1992 and 2015 but an independent enquiry by the British Polling COuncil found this to be untrue, it was the polling methods themselves that were wrong because they used unrepresentative samples

They are a bit like U2 fans. Nobody admits to liking them but many are still buying the records and concert tickets. 

[hippo]

28 minutes ago, ml1dch said:

Yup, I can well believe it. But demographics change, and parties do too. I imagine that a Green supporter might well vote for a Cameron Tory party. I think it's less likely that they'd vote for this version.

I think the assumption was they were a bit embarrassed to say they voted Tory. Or the feared the next question was "Why the feck are you voting for those selfish bstrds"  

[StanBalaban]

40 minutes ago, Genie said:

As we see on social media, anyone who says something positive about Boris or the conservatives is jumped upon. For that reason I assume many hardcore Tories will keep it to themselves and tick the box on the day. Hopefully the pollsters adjust for this.

There's very little shy about Boris supporters. Will be interesting to see how many of them will vote for someone that's not Boris.

[hippo]

22 minutes ago, bickster said:

The shy Tory is a bit of a myth when it comes to opinion polls. It was supposed to be the reason that the polls were out in 1992 and 2015 but an independent enquiry by the British Polling COuncil found this to be untrue, it was the polling methods themselves that were wrong because they used unrepresentative samples

Yes - it all gets quite interesting  (nerdy moment) - Another they found was (this was in 1990's) - that you were less likely to meet a Tory in the street - its the more working class people that are out and about.

[hippo]

2 minutes ago, StanBalaban said:

There's very little shy about Boris supporters. Will be interesting to see how many of them will vote for someone that's not Boris.

I don't think though they will look for Boris 2 - Truss/Patel/Baker.

Very early days but Ben Wallace/Tom Tugenhad  seem what they are looking for right now. That might change over the next couple of weeks - bear in mind the tory membership is 80% Brexit 

[bickster]

2 minutes ago, hippo said:

Yes - it all gets quite interesting  (nerdy moment) - Another they found was (this was in 1990's) - that you were less likely to meet a Tory in the street - its the more working class people that are out and about.

And that's why Internet and robocalling responses seemingly produce more accurate results too

It's also why the TV companies manage to find such an unrepresentative sample when they do their Vox Pops (in Stoke)

[hippo]

3 minutes ago, bickster said:

And that's why Internet and robocalling responses seemingly produce more accurate results too

It's also why the TV companies manage to find such an unrepresentative sample when they do their Vox Pops (in Stoke)

Yes.

I think it was 1992 - when a polling company tracked a group of undecided people over the course of an election campaign - but then of course these people became more engaged in politics over the next 3 weeks and as such weren't typical voters.  Although they did correctly predict the result.   

[Hobsons Choice]

1 hour ago, ml1dch said:

I don't think it is either. They were 12 points behind in 2012 and won the next election comfortably. 

However they had 10% of UKIP to their right that they could squeeze, and the threat of a Labour / SNP coalition on the other side which is where that deficit was recovered. I don't see who that 6-7% who need to switch back are, and what happens in the next two years or so that brings them back onside. 

Using that "Tory squeezing UKIP votes in a general election" argument, I'd even argue that there is a sizeable Green vote which Labour will eat into a bit in a general election making the deficit arguably worse. 

It will be interesting to see how they approach the next election. The right can't whip up fury against BRUSSELS BUREAUCRATS any more. Who are they going to blame for the utter crap mountain that is the UK at the moment?

[bickster]

4 minutes ago, HKP90 said:

It will be interesting to see how they approach the next election. The right can't whip up fury against BRUSSELS BUREAUCRATS any more. Who are they going to blame for the utter crap mountain that is the UK at the moment?

Labour obviously, followed by Woke Judges, Lefty Lawyers and specifically Jeremy Corbyn

[Hobsons Choice]

2 minutes ago, bickster said:

Labour obviously, followed by Woke Judges, Lefty Lawyers and specifically Jeremy Corbyn

You can't blame someone who has not been doing the job, for the state of said job, surely. 

That said I personally have beef with Labour for not being a more effective shadow cabinet for the last god knows how many years. 

[Jonesy7211]

Tom Tugendhat's announcement was interesting to read. Low tax and national insurance policies, which will be in stark contrast to bookies favourite Rishi, who is inextricably tied to the recent tax increases announced during his chancellorship. Think we're going to see two very different final candidates due to the division in the party.

It's got to be Tom or Ben Wallace as the new PM, the others are all either tied to Bunter, or like Hunt, linked back to Cameron or May governments.

[bickster]

Just now, HKP90 said:

You can't blame someone who has not been doing the job, for the state of said job, surely. 

That said I personally have beef with Labour for not being a more effective shadow cabinet for the last god knows how many years. 

It's what they've been doing for the last 12 years and with increasing incidence. The truth of the matter has absolutely nothing to do with it

[ml1dch]

3 minutes ago, Jonesy7211 said:

Tom Tugendhat's announcement was interesting to read. Low tax and national insurance policies, which will be in stark contrast to bookies favourite Rishi, who is inextricably tied to the recent tax increases announced during his chancellorship. Think we're going to see two very different final candidates due to the division in the party.

It's got to be Tom or Ben Wallace as the new PM, the others are all either tied to Bunter, or like Hunt, linked back to Cameron or May governments.

Why isn't the current Secretary Of Defence and one of the few senior cabinet members not to resign not tied to the Johnson record?

[Jonesy7211]

4 minutes ago, ml1dch said:

Why isn't the current Secretary Of Defence and one of the few senior cabinet members not to resign not tied to the Johnson record?

I may have misunderstood, but I always thought he wasn't as vocal supporter of Johnson in the same way Dorries, Truss, Raab etc al have been, as well as being a remainer.

[hippo]

Interesting that labour will push for a no confidence vote. I've  wondered why - because Johnson would surely win such a vote  - but then if he wins such a vote with almost 100% support - wouldn't someone be tempted to launch a keep Boris campaign ? 

"your getting rid of a bloke with a stonking election victory and 2 confidence votes victories to his name - what are we doing ?" 

[Genie]

2 minutes ago, Jonesy7211 said:

I may have misunderstood, but I always thought he wasn't as vocal supporter of Johnson in the same way Dorries, Truss, Raab etc al have been, as well as being a remainer.

At some point Ben Wallace is going to have to say what he’ll do about Brexit in his leadership campaign, which might render him “unsuitable”.

[hippo]

22 minutes ago, HKP90 said:

It will be interesting to see how they approach the next election. The right can't whip up fury against BRUSSELS BUREAUCRATS any more. Who are they going to blame for the utter crap mountain that is the UK at the moment?

I disagree they can \ will  (and indeed have) blamed the EU for all manner of ills 

Its vote winner - why on earth would they stop ? 

[Mark Albrighton]

 

[Jonesy7211]

Just now, Genie said:

At some point Ben Wallace is going to have to say what he’ll do about Brexit in his leadership campaign, which might render him “unsuitable”.

I don't think any candidate will have a policy that all factions within the party will be happy to go along with. There's still likely to be huge divisions on this, even many years after the issue saw off Theresa May.

[Genie]

1 minute ago, Jonesy7211 said:

I don't think any candidate will have a policy that all factions within the party will be happy to go along with. There's still likely to be huge divisions on this, even many years after the issue saw off Theresa May.

Yeah, but will he fall into the same zone as Keir Starmer. “I will pretty leave things as they are today” to avoid upsetting anybody?

Or does he have a backbone and confirm he’d look at getting the UK into some mutually beneficial trading pact with Europe?