The banker loving, baby-eating Tory party thread (regenerated)

[bickster]

5 minutes ago, The Fun Factory said:

In the last 30 years we are now having a 8th change of prime minister. And yet only 2 of these have come through the ballot box. It can't be good for democracy for a small unrepresentative sample of the population to have the power to select the leader of the nation.

This is how a Parliamentary democracy works. It would work this way under any voting system

[sidcow]

1 minute ago, hippo said:

In strictness you vote for your local MP. - who could be independent of any party.

We get our chance in 2024. - if not before.

 

Yeah, I nearly added that I don't recall seeing Boris Johnson's name on my last ballot paper.  Good job really as I might have destroyed it in a fit of rage.

[hippo]

23 minutes ago, ml1dch said:

Obviously they'll get a bounce when the new crook takes charge, but even so...

 

I don't actually think an 11 point deficit is terminal for the Tories in mid term.

[Davkaus]

3 minutes ago, sidcow said:

You vote for a party, not a prime minister.

Firstly, if you want to get technical about it, you don't, you vote for an MP - if they cross you floor, you don't get a byelection

What's clear though is that regardless of the technicalities of it, we essentially have a pseudo-presidential system, but with no say in who  that person is.

There's a lot wrong with the British electoral system.

[chrisp65]

Just now, hippo said:

In strictness you vote for your local MP. - who could be independent of any party.

We get our chance in 2024. - if not before.

 

It’s a strange hybrid system isn’t it.

You vote from your local candidate list. But they are representing the central manifesto.

You vote for Colin, the local tory sex pest, you will get an Etonian sex pest running the show. Whichever of the two you actually thought you were voting for.

[fightoffyour]

23 minutes ago, StefanAVFC said:

Brexiteers are fed up with them, remainers mostly hate them now, and this is reflected in their tumbling poll numbers.

Appoint a hard brexit headbanger or a more EU friendly, moderate and either way they lose voters.

Not that Labour are in a better position. Brexit truly **** up the political landscape.

Thanks Dave

Bit harsh to pin this all on @Genie

Edited July 8, 2022 by fightoffyour

[Straggler]

 

 

 

[chrisp65]

I’m guessing it could be awkward for them all next time they try to criticise workers withdrawing their labour to settle a dispute?

Shouldn’t they all have stayed in their jobs and continued negotiating?

Now is not the time to inconvenience people.

And if it didn’t inconvenience people, I think we’ve just found 50 jobs where we could make some efficiency savings.

Edited July 8, 2022 by chrisp65

[bickster]

I just did the election predictor because I'm a saddo based on those new polls

Obviously I realise this won't happen but there's some hilarious names that lose their seats. At Lab 41 Con 29 LD 15 Green 4 Ref 4., some selected highlights

Graham Brady

Lee Anderson

Tobias Elwood

George Eustice

Iain Duncan-Smith

Theresa Villiers

Natalie Elphicke

Dominic Raab

Daniel Kawczynski

Jacob Rees-Mogg

Esther McVey

Boris Johnson

Alun Cairns

Peter Bone

Grant Shapps

Shaun Bailey

John Redwood

Steve Baker

Stuart Andrew

Steven Crabb

Oh and a working majority of 44 for Labour

[ml1dch]

26 minutes ago, hippo said:

I don't actually think an 11 point deficit is terminal for the Tories in mid term.

I don't think it is either. They were 12 points behind in 2012 and won the next election comfortably. 

However they had 10% of UKIP to their right that they could squeeze, and the threat of a Labour / SNP coalition on the other side which is where that deficit was recovered. I don't see who that 6-7% who need to switch back are, and what happens in the next two years or so that brings them back onside. 

Using that "Tory squeezing UKIP votes in a general election" argument, I'd even argue that there is a sizeable Green vote which Labour will eat into a bit in a general election making the deficit arguably worse. 

[bickster]

3 minutes ago, ml1dch said:

I don't think it is either. They were 12 points behind in 2012 and won the next election comfortably. 

However they had 10% of UKIP to their right that they could squeeze, and the threat of a Labour / SNP coalition on the other side which is where that deficit was recovered. I don't see who that 6-7% who need to switch back are, and what happens in the next two years or so that brings them back onside. 

Using that "Tory squeezing UKIP votes in a general election" argument, I'd even argue that there is a sizeable Green vote which Labour will eat into a bit in a general election making the deficit arguably worse. 

And add in the tactical voting to the mix too as that is clearly becoming a thing again

[Stevo985]

Put something on my facebook about Boris going. First response from my sister in law, who's a Tory

"Do you really think Keir Starmer would fix anything? He'd just lead us into communism"

I despair

[chrisp65]

An actual tory MP…

 

 

[hippo]

24 minutes ago, ml1dch said:

I don't think it is either. They were 12 points behind in 2012 and won the next election comfortably. 

However they had 10% of UKIP to their right that they could squeeze, and the threat of a Labour / SNP coalition on the other side which is where that deficit was recovered. I don't see who that 6-7% who need to switch back are, and what happens in the next two years or so that brings them back onside. 

Using that "Tory squeezing UKIP votes in a general election" argument, I'd even argue that there is a sizeable Green vote which Labour will eat into a bit in a general election making the deficit arguably worse. 

I remember once I was working with someone who had previously worked for a polling company. He told me that one of the adjustments they made / factored in - was that a high % of people who told them they would vote for the greens in fact would vote Tory.  They pretty much proved this after on election. 

[Genie]

As we see on social media, anyone who says something positive about Boris or the conservatives is jumped upon. For that reason I assume many hardcore Tories will keep it to themselves and tick the box on the day. Hopefully the pollsters adjust for this.

[Stevo985]

10 minutes ago, hippo said:

I remember once I was working with someone who had previously worked for a polling company. He told me that one of the adjustments they made / factored in - was that a high % of people who told them they would vote for the greens in fact would vote Tory.  They pretty much proved this after on election. 

Yeah I feel like this was a "thing". My dad always told me he voted Greens, but with a bit of a wink and a nudge to suggest he didn't really.

I know now that he always voted Tory.

[ml1dch]

11 minutes ago, hippo said:

I remember once I was working with someone who had previously worked for a polling company. He told me that one of the adjustments they made / factored in - was that a high % of people who told them they would vote for the greens in fact would vote Tory.  They pretty much proved this after on election. 

Yup, I can well believe it. But demographics change, and parties do too. I imagine that a Green supporter might well vote for a Cameron Tory party. I think it's less likely that they'd vote for this version.

[bickster]

4 minutes ago, Genie said:

As we see on social media, anyone who says something positive about Boris or the conservatives is jumped upon. For that reason I assume many hardcore Tories will keep it to themselves and tick the box on the day. Hopefully the pollsters adjust for this.

The shy Tory is a bit of a myth when it comes to opinion polls. It was supposed to be the reason that the polls were out in 1992 and 2015 but an independent enquiry by the British Polling COuncil found this to be untrue, it was the polling methods themselves that were wrong because they used unrepresentative samples

[Wainy316]

46 minutes ago, Stevo985 said:

Put something on my facebook about Boris going. First response from my sister in law, who's a Tory

"Do you really think Keir Starmer would fix anything? He'd just lead us into communism"

I despair

I put that I was almost proud of Tamworth inadvertently taking down Johnson but the wife made me delete it as it read like I was proud of a sex offender 

[magnkarl]

If Lib Dems overtake the Tories I might make an altar to BoJo in my shed, gold wallpaper and all.