HanoiVillan Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Just now, blandy said: I don’t think that’s at all certain, either. While Labour and most of the Tory MPs will carry forward these types of measures, tacking towards the throbbers is not necessary a given. No Tory can win a leadership contest on the understanding that they will be relying on Labour votes to pass covid legislation, come on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blandy Posted December 17, 2021 Author Moderator Share Posted December 17, 2021 Just now, HanoiVillan said: No Tory can win a leadership contest on the understanding that they will be relying on Labour votes to pass covid legislation, come on! Of course not. That’s not what either you or I was discussing. When a leader, any leader, is presented with advice/evidence during a pandemic, that measures are needed requiring a vote that leader has a responsibility to act in the national interest in the prevalent circumstances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OutByEaster? Posted December 17, 2021 Moderator Share Posted December 17, 2021 "The national interest" is a very flexible phrase in political terms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 (edited) 13 minutes ago, blandy said: Of course not. That’s not what either you or I was discussing. When a leader, any leader, is presented with advice/evidence during a pandemic, that measures are needed requiring a vote that leader has a responsibility to act in the national interest in the prevalent circumstances. The context of the start of this conversation was 'why might the Tories get rid of Johnson'. Clearly, there are a large part of the parliamentary party - more than 26% - willing to defy the government on the topic of covid restrictions. More abstained, and more others will agree but be on the payroll vote. The pressure that led to that outcome didn't just emerge spontaneously out of the ether, it has a source, and that source is the pressure being felt by Tory MPs from members, supporters and constituents who do not want any more restrictions. What I am saying is that *if* Johnson were to go - and remember, per my first post in this chain, I don't think that is going to happen - he would have to be replaced by somebody who would be perceived by members to be less restrictionist. It's the same dynamic as when May went, she *had to* be replaced by somebody advocating a harder line on Brexit. This, not Brexit, is now the main dividing line in the Tory coalition. That is not to say that A. Replacement would never implement more restrictions. Politics can and does change, and sometimes positions held while not in power change when in power. We can see that despite his rhetorically tough line on Brexit, the Johnson government has caved to political realities time and again (most recently today, they have ended up accepting that ECJ judges have a role in interpreting the protocol, which they were inevitably going to have to do). If the pressure became more intense on PM Truss/Javid/Patel/Sunak whoever, they would cave. But they would have got to number 10 in the first place by being seen as less restrictionist than Johnson. Edited December 17, 2021 by HanoiVillan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blandy Posted December 17, 2021 Author Moderator Share Posted December 17, 2021 Just now, OutByEaster? said: "The national interest" is a very flexible phrase in political terms. Yes, it is. And there are legitimate judgements to be made around health, jobs, economy, and all the other pandemic consequences, but there are enough MPs to render the Tory barmpot outliers a bit of an irrelevance in such circs as we’re discussing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ml1dch Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, blandy said: Yes, it is. And there are legitimate judgements to be made around health, jobs, economy, and all the other pandemic consequences, but there are enough MPs to render the Tory barmpot outliers a bit of an irrelevance in such circs as we’re discussing. But the MPs (broadly) follow the leader. Imagine if Steve Baker becomes leader. He'll have the throbbers behind him, but because the majority of Tory MPs will follow what the leader's position is, if the leader's position (and thus that of the majority of MPs) aligns with that of the throbbers, then the outliers are no longer outliers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blandy Posted December 17, 2021 Author Moderator Share Posted December 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said: But they would have got to number 10 in the first place by being seen as less restrictionist than Johnson. The rest of your post is good. This, bit though, I see differently. The rebels aren’t all rebelling for the same reason, his loss of authority is for multiple failures of honesty, judgement, leadership etc. The next leader will be unlike Bunter in character and behaviour. Any hypothetical contest for next leader will be based on much more than a question of whether, and to what degree the candidates would adhere to scientific advice on covid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted December 17, 2021 Moderator Share Posted December 17, 2021 They haven't set a date yet for the Southend West By-election, they might be leaving it until the very last moment to do so after yesterday Labour have been gaining votes (2019 excepted) in this constituency for years. The majority is only 14k Sure there'll be a David Amess sympathy vote but the longer they leave it the more that will wane I imagine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blandy Posted December 17, 2021 Author Moderator Share Posted December 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, ml1dch said: Imagine if Steve Baker becomes leader Don’t do that to me! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ml1dch Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 (edited) 1 minute ago, bickster said: They haven't set a date yet for the Southend West By-election, they might be leaving it until the very last moment to do so after yesterday Labour have been gaining votes (2019 excepted) in this constituency for years. The majority is only 14k Sure there'll be a David Amess sympathy vote but the longer they leave it the more that will wane I imagine I thought all the main parties were standing aside in that one? Edited December 17, 2021 by ml1dch 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted December 17, 2021 Moderator Share Posted December 17, 2021 1 minute ago, ml1dch said: I thought all the main parties were standing aside in that one? AH, you're right, they probably are, my bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 10 minutes ago, blandy said: The rest of your post is good. This, bit though, I see differently. The rebels aren’t all rebelling for the same reason, his loss of authority is for multiple failures of honesty, judgement, leadership etc. The next leader will be unlike Bunter in character and behaviour. Any hypothetical contest for next leader will be based on much more than a question of whether, and to what degree the candidates would adhere to scientific advice on covid. Fair enough. My feeling is that - possibly because you take the opposite position to the Tory rebels, broadly speaking - you are both underestimating the strength of their belief and the strength of the push from below they are responding to. But ultimately we cannot *prove* this one way or the other, time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blandy Posted December 17, 2021 Author Moderator Share Posted December 17, 2021 4 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said: My feeling is that - possibly because you take the opposite position to the Tory rebels, broadly speaking - you are both underestimating the strength of their belief and the strength of the push from below they are responding to No, that’s not my reasoning at all. Objectively I know how strongly they hold their views. Objectively I know how much some constituents tell them how they don’t want masks, or want to “protect our liberties”. That I disagree with their take is not part of my logic on this. I disagree with the whole **** Tory party. My reasoning is around the next hypothetical leader will be dealing with circumstances prevailing in March or later, next year. The views of untameable fundamentalist, perma-malcontents on covid, to my reading, on restrictions, will be only a very very small part of whatever choice of baby eater leader they make. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Panto_Villan Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 2 hours ago, Mic09 said: I'm not sure. He does have the awe of 'trumpism', the though shall not be defeated sort of vibe. I reckon if we found out Boris is having an affair with Angela Merkel he would try to spin it in a positive light. Do you think he won't last? If so, why? I just feel like the sheen has come off in the eyes of the public - what was once endearing bluster now seems indicative of lies and incompetence imo. Also, I don't think Boris has anywhere near the hold Trump has on his party, so he's gone if the Tories become convinced Boris is going to lose them the next election. I also think that Boris doesn't have a lot to go on once his comedy persona stops being funny / likeable. So if I'm correct and people have got sick of it, I don't really see how he can pull himself out of this tailspin - he can't suddenly reinvent himself as a serious politician because he doesn't have the work ethic or attention to detail. It's just going to get worse from here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 4 minutes ago, blandy said: No, that’s not my reasoning at all. Objectively I know how strongly they hold their views. Objectively I know how much some constituents tell them how they don’t want masks, or want to “protect our liberties”. That I disagree with their take is not part of my logic on this. I disagree with the whole **** Tory party. My reasoning is around the next hypothetical leader will be dealing with circumstances prevailing in March or later, next year. The views of untameable fundamentalist, perma-malcontents on covid, to my reading, on restrictions, will be only a very very small part of whatever choice of baby eater leader they make. Yeah, fair, maybe it will or would be less important by the time of said hypothetical leadership election. Again, going back to my initial comment, this is all a hypothetical I don't think is going to happen anyway. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trekka Posted December 17, 2021 VT Supporter Share Posted December 17, 2021 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post markavfc40 Posted December 17, 2021 Popular Post Share Posted December 17, 2021 You couldn't make this up could you. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted December 17, 2021 Moderator Share Posted December 17, 2021 7 minutes ago, markavfc40 said: You couldn't make this up could you. Oh I think you could tbh. Its so The Thick Of It that political satire has now become political drama 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted December 17, 2021 Moderator Share Posted December 17, 2021 16 minutes ago, Panto_Villan said: the silver lining of the Tories replacing him with someone more competent and less divisive is that if the Tories did win the next election we'd then have a PM that was more competent and less divisive than Boris You realise that right now the two main contenders are Rishi "California Dreaming" Sunak and Liz "Pork Exports" Truss. The latter fails any competency test, they both fail the divisive test. There are lots of Tory MPs who don't like a female leader, especially one as incomprehensibly stupid as Liz Truss and the Swivel Eyed Loons in the constituencies will wonder why the waiter in the local Curry House is leading their Party. Neither of those two candidates will unite the party. If Boris is dumped I hope to god it's Truss that wins. Her clown act is not an act unlike Boris Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts