HanoiVillan Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 Thanks Everton, done us a solid. Doesn't really mean anything unless we get a result tomorrow though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheAuthority Posted November 1, 2015 VT Supporter Share Posted November 1, 2015 Come on Everton - we want double figures Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingman Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 If only we acted earlier to get Big Sam! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cliffy Biro Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 Tbf Allardyce in the long run will have them hard to beat, not that I've ever wanted him as villa manager. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nazvfc Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 Tbf Allardyce in the long run will have them hard to beat, not that I've ever wanted him as villa manager.maybe but he was supposed to now make them climb up the table and save them. Hard to beat but boring and you think some fans would settle for that? They were on about wanting to lose playing well than scrape a draw or a loss playing shit under lambert and then sherwood! Rather go down ( we did before) and came back from the ashes than put up with any more shit British managers. Look at the top teams at the moment most if not all foreign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cliffy Biro Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 I agree, I'm just saying that I think the result today wont be too common under allardyce, hes only been there a week and they are an utter mess like us. Clubs like Sunderland and Villa wont be repaired in a matter of weeks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VillaChris Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 Sunderland don't look like they have many away wins or points in them (Yes I know where their one away point this season was won) way they defended today. Going to put on a lot of pressure on them to keep winning at the SOL, a venue where they've been poor last few seasons.Whereas if Garde can come in and get us organised we've shown in the last few years we can go away and win with the pace in our team. Lambert managed it, Sherwood initally managed it and even this season we should have two away wins on the board if Sherwood hadn't started playing football manager after 70 minutes at Leicester.Going to be very tough but will help us if it's a very low points tally to stay up this year, something like 34 points would do me, anything close to 40 and think that will be beyond us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osmark86 Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 Thank you Everton for the thrashing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osmark86 Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 I'd like to order another sunday-spanking for Bourne. Make it happen Koeman et al. Make it so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AVTuco Posted November 1, 2015 VT Supporter Share Posted November 1, 2015 Okay, so I'm procrastinating and avoiding work. I analysed all of the last 15 Premier League seasons, and where the table was after 10 games, to see roughly what our chances of surviving are. I just looked at those teams who were in the relegation places at this point, since those far above the relegation places who ended up relegated aren't relevant to our situation. There have been 45 teams in the bottom 3 over those 15 seasons (obviously). 20 stayed up at the end of the season, while 25 went down, which suggests our chances of staying up are around 45%.The average points total for those who stayed up at this point was 6.65, while of those who went down it was 6.29*. This would suggest that we are way below the threshold, and perhaps our chances of relegation are higher, but the data is conflicted on this - there were only 6 instances where teams had 4 points or fewer, and 3 of those teams survived, so while there isn't much data for this, what there is suggests we aren't really much more likely to go down than, eg. Sunderland (statistically, forgetting Fat Sam or whatever). In only one of the fifteen seasons did all 3 teams in the relegation places after 10 games survive (2008/09 - Wigan/Bolton/Tottenham) but on only one occasion did all 3 teams go down (2006/07 - Watford/Sheff Utd/Charlton). On nine occasions, 2 of the teams went down, while on 4 occasions it was only one. Overall, I think we have an around 40% chance of surviving based on historical precedent. That's actually mildly better than I thought before I did the analysis. *I excluded Portsmouth 2009/10 from this part of the analysis as they started the season on -9 points. Hopefully you got a bit out of your hopelessness after doing this analysis. It helped me, so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 (edited) Yes, if you'd asked me before I did the analysis I'd have put our chances at a maximum of 25%, and I would have felt that was being generous, but it seems it's not quite that bleak. I will be revising my predictions periodically in the future. EDIT: However, we need to start getting results. I'm expecting us to lose at least the next three matches, but we really don't have that luxury. Edited November 1, 2015 by HanoiVillan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coda Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 My current picks would be Norwich, Bournemouth and, er, Aston Villa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mantis Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 (edited) It continues to amaze me how Sunderland consistently beat Newcastle every season while we consistently lose to them while at the same time consistently picking up points against Sunderland.Triangle of PL shitness. Edited November 1, 2015 by Mantis 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osmark86 Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 Thank you Soton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villarocker Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 We can jump two places tomorrow night with a win. You would think that would be a big enough incentive for our players to win, wouldn't you? I think tomorrow will show what they're made of. If we get a footballing lesson tomorrow, when there is is so much to play for, it will leave me the most worried I've been about being relegated, this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wainy316 Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 Well we won away at Spurs last season when we didn't expect to and were worried about the run of fixtures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nazvfc Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 Well we won away at Spurs last season when we didn't expect to and were worried about the run of fixtures.don't be so damned positive you know this is vt were are talking about? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AshVilla Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 Having to thank other teams is pretty embarrassingWe should be doing the business ourselves on the pitch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo985 Posted November 1, 2015 VT Supporter Share Posted November 1, 2015 It continues to amaze me how Sunderland consistently beat Newcastle every season while we consistently lose to them while at the same time consistently picking up points against Sunderland.Triangle of PL shitness.I can't remember the exact stat. But games vs Newcastle account for something mental like 30% of SUnderlands wins over the past 3 seasons. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BleedClaretAndBlue Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 Tbf Allardyce in the long run will have them hard to beat, not that I've ever wanted him as villa manager.tbf, with defensive options like O'Shea, Kaboul, Wes Brown, Billy Jones, Coates, Roberge, I cant see how they'll ever be hard to beat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts