The Chairman Mao resembling, Monarchy hating, threat to Britain, Labour Party thread

[blandy]

16 minutes ago, bickster said:

Starmer has it absolutely wrong about the red wall and his chances of success with the line he's taking

He doesn't. I think the reason he doesn't is the "poll" question. Yes, the results said people there thought Brexit was a mistake, or whatever the exact phrase was. But it's a massive over simplification to say, therefore "Starmer should say so". Because the first thing that would happen from that would be a new discussion around how Labour wants to rejoin the EU, undo Brexit, spend the next 7 years reversing the things that have happened in the past 7 years.

In terms of there being a General Election in a year or so, spending the whole time, or a large part of it, arguing about rejoining the EU and ignoring the democratic vote of the people in 2016 would be the completely wrong strategy. You absolutely can't take a single issue poll "was it a mistake" and turn the answer "yes it was" into the main thrust of an election campaign, only a few years after a referendum on it. He'd lose the GE and deserve to do so, if he did that. Not because there's still a sizeable chunk of the population that likes the idea of Brexit (but not the execution), but because for the average voter they want stuff sorted out, not more drawn out arguing about the EU.

(This is my take on the strategy, not my personal view on the lunacy of Brexit and the damage it's done).

Labour will not win if they give the appearance of wanting to rejoin the EU as soon as they get in. Longer term it has to be done step by step - closer, better relations, more trust, single market...customs union... and only then start talking about full on rejoin, oif that's the way the people want to go.

[bickster]

5 minutes ago, Genie said:

I don’t see anything in the Brexit topic? 

Sorry, it was in this topic, on the last page

[Genie]

20 hours ago, bickster said:

The Constitution Society

This is from 21st March, Labour doesn't appear to have smelt the coffee yet

Absolutely. 

Let’s not do the thing that will have a hugely positive impact on people, industry, the NHS, GDP, national debt, inflation, cost of living etc… it’s time to move on instead. 

The Tories have also been desperately trying to “move on” for 5 years but it won’t go away. 

[Genie]

33 minutes ago, blandy said:

He doesn't. I think the reason he doesn't is the "poll" question. Yes, the results said people there thought Brexit was a mistake, or whatever the exact phrase was. But it's a massive over simplification to say, therefore "Starmer should say so". Because the first thing that would happen from that would be a new discussion around how Labour wants to rejoin the EU, undo Brexit, spend the next 7 years reversing the things that have happened in the past 7 years.

In terms of there being a General Election in a year or so, spending the whole time, or a large part of it, arguing about rejoining the EU and ignoring the democratic vote of the people in 2016 would be the completely wrong strategy. You absolutely can't take a single issue poll "was it a mistake" and turn the answer "yes it was" into the main thrust of an election campaign, only a few years after a referendum on it. He'd lose the GE and deserve to do so, if he did that. Not because there's still a sizeable chunk of the population that likes the idea of Brexit (but not the execution), but because for the average voter they want stuff sorted out, not more drawn out arguing about the EU.

(This is my take on the strategy, not my personal view on the lunacy of Brexit and the damage it's done).

Labour will not win if they give the appearance of wanting to rejoin the EU as soon as they get in. Longer term it has to be done step by step - closer, better relations, more trust, single market...customs union... and only then start talking about full on rejoin, oif that's the way the people want to go.

I think the answer is to do a “deal” with the EU that can be sold as the UK winning. It’ll be EU membership via the back door.

I agree full fat EU membership isn’t going to happen anytime soon but I think a deal allows those who pushed Brexit hard at the time, and realise it was a mistake now, to accept the decision without losing too much face.

[blandy]

2 hours ago, Genie said:

I agree full fat EU membership isn’t going to happen anytime soon but I think a deal allows those who pushed Brexit hard at the time, and realise it was a mistake now, to accept the decision without losing too much face.

Broadly, yeah. I think the thing is firstly Labour has to get in. Only then can the actual work necessary to improve on the dreadful deal we have now actually start. We;ve seen with Sunak replacing the other loons that he's managed to get some iterative improvements, and I would imagine with Labour in power, they will be able to get further improvements. The damage that has been done is not going to be reversed quickly. It's going to take a number of years just to get to a less impactful version of Brexit. That's the stone cold reality, and it's why Labour needs (IMO) to avoid the notion of "rejoining" or even a hint of it for a good while yet. "Get an improved set of deals" is the reality that they need to sell, both because even rejoining if they asked the day they got in would take years. The other thing is the civil service - the people who would have to do all the detailed work and discussions and writing and reading and discussing and all that - obviously the tories have for some time been slagging off the civil service, counter-productively, and removing the skilled and experienced people from roles, and those folk need settling down and replacing or re-instating and so on. It's going to take ages to recover.

It absolutely was a mistake to have left and more so, in the way we left, with a terrible deal, but the truth is that even though people are beginning to see the errors, recovery is going to take a long time. There's no magic "undo" button that can be pressed to satisfy people - either those who voted remain, or those who voted leave and now realise they were conned.

[ml1dch]

26 minutes ago, blandy said:

It absolutely was a mistake to have left and more so, in the way we left, with a terrible deal, but the truth is that even though people are beginning to see the errors, recovery is going to take a long time. There's no magic "undo" button that can be pressed to satisfy people - either those who voted remain, or those who voted leave and now realise they were conned.

An astute way I saw it summed up over the weekend is that people don't want to rejoin, they want to rewind.

And rewind isn't something that will ever be on the table. 

[Jareth]

I’m excited about the Labour offer put out before tomorrows local elections. A windfall tax on oil and gas - sounds great. But then I read it’s only to freeze council tax. Mine just went up this April. Looks a case of an admirable method, but a damp sponge of an offer. 

[tinker]

Labour should attack the tory brexit deal with similar lines the tories used,

"We can deliver the brexit deal we all deserve, a deal the Conservatives have failed to deliver" 

[ml1dch]

15 minutes ago, tinker said:

Labour should attack the tory brexit deal with similar lines the tories used,

"We can deliver the brexit deal we all deserve, a deal the Conservatives have failed to deliver" 

Unless they've got a solid idea of what that "better" looks like, I think you're overestimating people's interest in more promises about Brexit. 

Aside from a bit of tinkering with SPS alignment, there's not all that much that's in Labour's power to unilaterally offer.

[tinker]

21 minutes ago, ml1dch said:

Unless they've got a solid idea of what that "better" looks like, I think you're overestimating people's interest in more promises about Brexit. 

Aside from a bit of tinkering with SPS alignment, there's not all that much that's in Labour's power to unilaterally offer.

I'm not to sure anyone who voted for brexit worries about the finer details of SPS alignment and the other complications it has all caused.

Starmer needs have these brexit people vote for him rather than against the torys and at the moment he hasn't got those votes. It's my guess the tories will change their leader before the election and then throw Rishi under the bus by blaming him and their new leader with finally "get the deal done", leaving Starmer flat footed. 

[ml1dch]

12 minutes ago, tinker said:

I'm not to sure anyone who voted for brexit worries about the finer details of SPS alignment and the other complications it has all caused.

Starmer needs have these brexit people vote for him rather than against the torys and at the moment he hasn't got those votes. It's my guess the tories will change their leader before the election and then throw Rishi under the bus by blaming him and their new leader with finally "get the deal done", leaving Starmer flat footed. 

I agree on the first point - apart from a small rump of sovereignty purists, nobody is going to care when this government or the next inevitably does the SPS deal.

It'll massively help exporters and freight transit, but I don't think that makes a big enough difference in the lives of "normal people" for them to consider things that were once broken to now be fixed.

As I said, Labour should still do it, but they just shouldn't parade it as making everything better.

On the second, I'd bet everything I own that the Tories don't change leader before the next General. Sunak's personal brand is miles ahead of the Tory brand and he's literally the only thing keeping them electorally competitive (and I suppose, lack of enthusiasm about the alternatives). And enough MPs know this that they're not going to get rid of him.

[Wainy316]

Starmer going back on pretty much pledge he’s made is gathering a lot of recognition now.

He may still snatch defeat from the jaws of victory yet.  Fitting that he’s an Arsenal fan.

[DCJonah]

Is Starmer meeting with Sue Gray as bad as some are making out?

[Jareth]

1 hour ago, DCJonah said:

Is Starmer meeting with Sue Gray as bad as some are making out?

I've got to say I think it's a bit of a genius and ruthless move - she knows where all the bodies are buried. It's a move I'd expect any Tory would be proud of.

[ml1dch]

1 hour ago, DCJonah said:

Is Starmer meeting with Sue Gray as bad as some are making out?

It depends what you mean by bad. The very short version is "no".

The only people in that "some" are the nutters who were wetting their knickers about the (also irrelevant) Durham curry thing who have contorted Sue Gray as the reason Johnson isn't Prime Minister anymore, and this is the smoking gun that shows that she was working all along to try and get rid of him. 

When of course, the only reason that he isn't Prime Minister anymore is because his own MPs had had enough of defending his terrible judgement and lies. 

Electorally it'll make no difference. HR processes for high-ranking civil servants aren't really a big cut-through story. Labour have done nothing wrong by asking if she wants to do the job and she has done nothing wrong by accepting the job. ACOBA (the body that judges these things) will decide on a certain period of time before she can start, as is the right thing to do. So not really any "bad" at all.

As far as I can tell, pretty much the only thing to criticise is that it might have made sense to leave the Civil Service, allow a period of time to pass and then accept the Labour job. Not because it would improper not to do that, but just to stop Dan Hodges and Harry Cole from hyperventilating. 

Edited May 4, 2023 by ml1dch

[Demitri_C]

On 02/05/2023 at 11:43, chrisp65 said:

All available on KeirStarmer

Under the headline ‘my pledges to you’

1.0 economic justice:

2.0 social justice:

5.0 common ownership:

There are 10 pledges in all, and in most tests 7 out of 10 would be a very good mark.

Some of them such as pledge 5, containing multiple strands. For instance, on ending outsourcing within the NHS, he has since said he wants to draw on investment and expertise from outside the public sector.

There is a problem with the public reading policies and promises and pledges and generally doing more research than just picking up a vibe off the telly. You can begin to look like you’ve over promised on your points of difference. It goes for all the parties. It’s just that for this election it feels even more important than ever not to just come over as more of the same but in a different colour tie. The tories are perfectly capable of wearing different ties and pointing out all politicians are essentially the same.

Basically, don’t have a website of pledges and then row back on them one by one.

 

 

With the ending of the out sourcing part what does he mean by this? Surely he is not talking about hospitals out sourcing their TCIs? If it wasn't for that we would be screwed as we have no capacity for our trust so we out source them to other hospitals eg hadley wood Whittington et lc so patients are seen quicker.

This would be a disaster if thats whats what he is implying 

Edited May 4, 2023 by Demitri_C

[Jareth]

The ITV youth tracker on Peston was interesting (who knew such a thing existed!) 60% Labour Vs 15% Tory - and 20% Corbyn Vs 17% Starmer for best Labour leader. Looks like Starmer has judged it right, they're clearly all going to vote Labour (if they bother) regardless of how they feel about the leadership. It's a shame they've been done over on tuition fees and they're by a huge majority pro EU - you'd think Labour will offer them something at some point, surely?

[The Fun Factory]

10 minutes ago, Jareth said:

The ITV youth tracker on Peston was interesting (who knew such a thing existed!) 60% Labour Vs 15% Tory - and 20% Corbyn Vs 17% Starmer for best Labour leader. Looks like Starmer has judged it right, they're clearly all going to vote Labour (if they bother) regardless of how they feel about the leadership. It's a shame they've been done over on tuition fees and they're by a huge majority pro EU - you'd think Labour will offer them something at some point, surely?

Yes that is all well and good but will they bother to vote? The old duffer brigade does in droves and votes overwhelmingly Tory. As shown in various elections and brexit in the last 10 years.

[bickster]

14 minutes ago, Jareth said:

The ITV youth tracker on Peston was interesting (who knew such a thing existed!) 60% Labour Vs 15% Tory - and 20% Corbyn Vs 17% Starmer for best Labour leader. Looks like Starmer has judged it right, they're clearly all going to vote Labour (if they bother) regardless of how they feel about the leadership. It's a shame they've been done over on tuition fees and they're by a huge majority pro EU - you'd think Labour will offer them something at some point, surely?

What age group is that?

[Davkaus]

1 hour ago, Demitri_C said:

With the ending of the out sourcing part what does he mean by this? Surely he is not talking about hospitals out sourcing their TCIs? If it wasn't for that we would be screwed as we have no capacity for our trust so we out source them to other hospitals eg hadley wood Whittington et lc so patients are seen quicker.

This would be a disaster if thats whats what he is implying 

I don't think they're stupid enough to just yell "no more outsourcing" and expect everyone to cope. There would need to be sufficient funding to absorb these services into NHS capacity, be that within trusts, or more centralised services in some cases.

That will of course cost money, but if we can afford to pay for private providers to provide the service and make a profit off it, we can afford to provide the service in the NHS.

As it happens, you don't need to worry, because it's another pledge Starmer has rowed back on, because, depending on your view, he's a duplicitous snake in the grass/economic circumstances have changed.