Amsterdam_Neil_D Posted March 28, 2023 Share Posted March 28, 2023 It's going to be super interesting from a data point of view. I like all that stuff. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amsterdam_Neil_D Posted March 28, 2023 Share Posted March 28, 2023 If I had to guess, I can see Raynor doing or saying something between now and the election. If she looked and talked Posh she wouldn't be in the shadow cabinet IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
juanpabloangel18 Posted March 28, 2023 Share Posted March 28, 2023 59 minutes ago, Amsterdam_Neil_D said: If I had to guess, I can see Raynor doing or saying something between now and the election. If she looked and talked Posh she wouldn't be in the shadow cabinet IMO. Eh? Are you saying she's not there on merit? And that she's a loose cannon? Because: 1) She's been heavily stigmatised for being a working class northern young mother, and done very well (IMO) to get where she is 2) She seems to have learnt a lot from the 'tory scum' incident and generally polished up her media performances subsequently I wonder what she's making of authoritarian Starmer though - seems to have been a bit quiet recently 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ml1dch Posted March 28, 2023 Share Posted March 28, 2023 NEC votes to pass the motion to bar Corbyn from standing as a Labour candidate, 22-12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jareth Posted March 28, 2023 Share Posted March 28, 2023 (edited) 4 hours ago, ml1dch said: And whether it's great or not, as @Jareth hints at, it doesn't really matter where they are now, it's where they are in a year It was a pretty stark fork in the road last election, marmite Jezza Vs showman Bozza, communism or sunny uplands of Brexit. In a year's time I think we are pretty sure it'll be Sunak Vs Starmer - but what worries me the most is the public's short memories - and in that 12-18 months if inflation comes down, the housing market stabilises (it possibly has), Brexit problems ironed out a little more, energy bills go down, people feel they have more money in their pocket - then it'll come down to a straight shoot between the two leaders and who is more trusted. I know policy will play a part but it'd be madness to think Labour can win on that alone, the tories know how to appeal to their voters. Edited March 28, 2023 by Jareth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ml1dch Posted March 28, 2023 Share Posted March 28, 2023 (edited) 1 hour ago, Jareth said: It was a pretty stark fork in the road last election, marmite Jezza Vs showman Bozza, communism or sunny uplands of Brexit. In a year's time I think we are pretty sure it'll be Sunak Vs Starmer - but what worries me the most is the public's short memories - and in that 12-18 months if inflation comes down, the housing market stabilises (it possibly has), Brexit problems ironed out a little more, energy bills go down, people feel they have more money in their pocket - then it'll come down to a straight shoot between the two leaders and who is more trusted. I know policy will play a part but it'd be madness to think Labour can win on that alone, the tories know how to appeal to their voters. Yeah, don't really disagree with any of that. The thing I'm not sure is right is that all those things that you cite, how much better they are going to get that makes people want Sunak to carry on. As I mention in that post, stuff that is getting positive press for Sunak just isn't moving the polls. Once people have made their mind up on something, it takes something tangible to change it back. Things might be a bit better than the "f****** awful" that Johnson / Truss gave us, but that doesn't equal "good". And I don't think that "not as bad as all the same people with a different Prime Minister" is enough to give many people confidence to give them another five years. Like 2010 (and argually June 2016), I think the next election will be fought on an overriding wave of "I don't really care about any of them, but let's roll the dice and give the other way a go". One important point - a Labour Government probably forms in any scenario where the Tories lose forty or more seats. Whatever tiny, green shoots start to appear in the next 12 months, it feels hard to see the Tories *not* losing forty or more seats. But things change. Edited March 28, 2023 by ml1dch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Follyfoot Posted March 28, 2023 VT Supporter Share Posted March 28, 2023 1 hour ago, Jareth said: It was a pretty stark fork in the road last election, marmite Jezza Vs showman Bozza, communism or sunny uplands of Brexit. In a year's time I think we are pretty sure it'll be Sunak Vs Starmer - but what worries me the most is the public's short memories - and in that 12-18 months if inflation comes down, the housing market stabilises (it possibly has), Brexit problems ironed out a little more, energy bills go down, people feel they have more money in their pocket - then it'll come down to a straight shoot between the two leaders and who is more trusted. I know policy will play a part but it'd be madness to think Labour can win on that alone, the tories know how to appeal to their voters. If Labour do not win the next election they might as well disband as a party 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blandy Posted March 28, 2023 Moderator Share Posted March 28, 2023 7 hours ago, Amsterdam_Neil_D said: Labour only have a 19% lead. They might still lose this, history is not on their side (Labour). Considering the Truss, Boris and budget disasters this is not great at this point ? It's amazing, in some regards. 3 years ago, they were absolutely nowhere - thrashed I the GE, leaderless and pretty distraught at their own plight. I dunno the last time Labour had such a big lead in any sequence of polls - probably before 1997's election, maybe? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ml1dch Posted March 28, 2023 Share Posted March 28, 2023 1 minute ago, blandy said: It's amazing, in some regards. 3 years ago, they were absolutely nowhere - thrashed I the GE, leaderless and pretty distraught at their own plight. I dunno the last time Labour had such a big lead in any sequence of polls - probably before 1997's election, maybe? A year or two out from '97. The lead during the election campaign was normally 10-15 points. In 95-96 there were leads of 30+ points. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blandy Posted March 28, 2023 Moderator Share Posted March 28, 2023 1 hour ago, Jareth said: it'll come down to a straight shoot between the two leaders and who is more trusted. I know policy will play a part but it'd be madness to think Labour can win on that alone, the tories know how to appeal to their voters. Definitely agree with the first part. Labour needs to, and I'm sure they will, put out a load of clear policies over the next year. If they don't, then they won't win. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted March 28, 2023 Moderator Share Posted March 28, 2023 5 hours ago, Amsterdam_Neil_D said: If I had to guess, I can see Raynor doing or saying something between now and the election. If she looked and talked Posh she wouldn't be in the shadow cabinet IMO. She absolutely would, her Deputy Leader position is elected by the membership, now that doesn't automatically mean she's in the cabinet but should something happen to Starmer. she'd have to take over, so she really does need to know what is going on, for her not to be in the cabinet would be unthinkable really 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Demitri_C Posted March 28, 2023 Author Share Posted March 28, 2023 Corbyn blocked by starmer to represent labour at next election. Hmm that could be a mistake as corbyn has a lot of supporters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villaajax Posted March 28, 2023 Share Posted March 28, 2023 I despise starmer and will not be voting for Labour again, having voted for the party at every opportunity since I was old enough to vote, even at the pointless local elections. I was even asked to consider standing as a councillor at one time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wainy316 Posted March 28, 2023 Share Posted March 28, 2023 8 minutes ago, villaajax said: I despise starmer and will not be voting for Labour again, having voted for the party at every opportunity since I was old enough to vote, even at the pointless local elections. I was even asked to consider standing as a councillor at one time If I remember right you’re in my constituency. Lib Dem might be a more valuable vote anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villaajax Posted March 28, 2023 Share Posted March 28, 2023 Just now, Wainy316 said: If I remember right you’re in my constituency. Lib Dem might be a more valuable vote anyway. I am. Don't know how we managed to end up with an even worse tory than Vaizey but here we are... If I even bother to go to a polling station it will be to spoil the ballot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Davkaus Posted March 28, 2023 Share Posted March 28, 2023 42 minutes ago, Demitri_C said: Corbyn blocked by starmer to represent labour at next election. Hmm that could be a mistake as corbyn has a lot of supporters He does, but not enough, tl he's absolutely toxic to the people Starmer is trying to appeal to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Demitri_C Posted March 28, 2023 Author Share Posted March 28, 2023 27 minutes ago, Davkaus said: He does, but not enough, tl he's absolutely toxic to the people Starmer is trying to appeal to. I think though labour though need as many voters as they can attract I have no data to back it up as its impossible to know but my assumption is there is probably more labour voters that like corbyn as opposed to that hate/dislike him. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LondonLax Posted March 29, 2023 Share Posted March 29, 2023 7 hours ago, Demitri_C said: I think though labour though need as many voters as they can attract I have no data to back it up as its impossible to know but my assumption is there is probably more labour voters that like corbyn as opposed to that hate/dislike him. It’s not the regular labour voters they are trying to attract. They figure they have most of those areas in the bag. It’s the areas they lost when Corbyn was in charge that they are trying to get back. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jareth Posted March 29, 2023 Share Posted March 29, 2023 10 hours ago, villaajax said: I was even asked to consider standing as a councillor at one time One can safely assume you'll be on the black list now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jareth Posted March 29, 2023 Share Posted March 29, 2023 9 hours ago, Demitri_C said: I think though labour though need as many voters as they can attract I have no data to back it up as its impossible to know but my assumption is there is probably more labour voters that like corbyn as opposed to that hate/dislike him. The gamble Labour have made is that everyone toward the left will hold their nose and vote Labour to get the Tories out. I think they are still on track with that, but should the polls tighten, and I think they will, I expect a late policy splash to keep the diasaffected left onside and whether that will be enough remains to be seen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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