The Chairman Mao resembling, Monarchy hating, threat to Britain, Labour Party thread

[blandy]

56 minutes ago, bickster said:

The way I see it, is that it is much better to be upfront about such issues, especially with such a commanding poll lead.

You can’t get an ambulance. You can’t get a hospital bed, you wait 12 hours in A&E. Can’t afford to heat your home. Can’t get a train. Police don’t investigate burglaries. Can’t afford to eat…

I know, let’s talk about rejoining the EU? really?

Yes, leaving was damaging and will, er, remain damaging… but rejoining, even if the EU were unanimously keen on it, which is far from certain, would take years and years. It’s really NOT the thing to be campaigning on right now, tactically.

The steps for reversing the harm go like this: Get in power. Get treated by the EU as grown ups and trustworthy. Resolve the big issues around Ireland. Better trade terms and practicalities. Medium term Single Market, longer term full membership.

So the EU stuff is long term, and right now the house is burning down due to Tory arson.

[Davkaus]

11 hours ago, blandy said:

You can’t get an ambulance. You can’t get a hospital bed, you wait 12 hours in A&E. Can’t afford to heat your home. Can’t get a train. Police don’t investigate burglaries. Can’t afford to eat…

I know, let’s talk about rejoining the EU? really?

 

100% agree with all this, and I know they feel like the more pressing, immediate things, but I'm also still just a bit depressed that the whole climate catastrophe thing doesn't make it to the list. We are so absolutely ****.

[Jareth]

I don't like Starmer or Labour much at all, but I think they will show their hand as late as possible when we are near an election - and I expect we will see many attractive policies on all the key issues. Starmer just nicked the Take Back Control slogan, I expect he'll do the same with a lot of policies from the last Labour leader, just repackaged and de-Corbyned. 

[Davkaus]

14 minutes ago, Jareth said:

I don't like Starmer or Labour much at all, but I think they will show their hand as late as possible when we are near an election 

Indeed. I don't love it, and I don't particularly like him, but giving their policies years for the tories and rags to smear with lies just doesn't make much sense. They can try and counter those lies, but we've all seen how effective repeating a disproven smear again and again is. Facts don't matter, repetition and the media being willing to report it do.

[blandy]

1 hour ago, Davkaus said:

I'm also still just a bit depressed that the whole climate catastrophe thing doesn't make it to the list.

Yeah. Labour is at least talking about it, which the baby eaters aren't. But it's the most pressing, urgent thing by a mile in terms of really big stuff - obviously local UK or regional UK stuff impacts people more day by day, but those things pass, one way or the other.

[OutByEaster?]

In order to win the election, which they should by a country mile, all Labour needs to do is keep reminding the country that the Tories are there, keep giving them a platform, keep making sure that they are properly associated with their own sh*t. The groundswell of opinion, both from the public and from commentators, celebrities and organisations that represent stuff like the NHS, teachers and so on is so hugely against the criminals that have run the country for twelve years that winning the election is, for my money, a given.

That's a very interesting position for Starmer in that he can pretty much do as he pleases over the next year in terms of readying himself for government, he doesn't really have to campaign on anything, he just has to make sure that the people that are important to him, that he'll need and that he wants want to partner with, are onside. At the moment, I'm getting a feeling that those most definitely aren't the people I'd like him to be talking to and I suspect we're going to get four years of bank friendly soft corporatism when he's in place.

Still ,with a bit of luck, perhaps the little he does promise might turn out to be a gateway drug and we'll see the electorate gain an appetite for something more useful.

[OutByEaster?]

He's also in a very good position in that he can be talking today to US interest, foreign parties and major groups within the UK with the authority of a future PM. It's so very likely that he'll be PM in a year and a bit that I think those groups have to treat him as such.

I can't remember a government so dead, so far out from an election.

[foreveryoung]

Starmer has mugged it already though, saying we will not buy ourself out the shit, which I agree with, but how the hell is he gonna do anything without spending more money.

[OutByEaster?]

In fairness, perhaps while we're looking for him to tell us how he's going to build a new societ, he's working on a practical plan just to try to slow the rate at which we're collapsing.

Maybe he's pragmatical enough to know he can't afford to dream and instead is looking at being the governmental equivalent of a puncture repair kit. That might be very difficult to campaign or persuade on, but could be what the country needs.

There you go, I've painted the bland corporatist as a stoic hero of modern Britain, who said I'm not prepared to give him a chance?

 

[bickster]

15 hours ago, blandy said:

You can’t get an ambulance. You can’t get a hospital bed, you wait 12 hours in A&E. Can’t afford to heat your home. Can’t get a train. Police don’t investigate burglaries. Can’t afford to eat…

I know, let’s talk about rejoining the EU? really?

We won't solve any of that without strengthening the economy, there is no point in separating the issues, they are all part of the same thing. Much stronger ties with the EU including FoM is one way of begining to fix the NHS, especially in the short term.

[Davkaus]

The thing that worries me most is how quickly the Tories can sort themselves out.

There's a feeling that Labour are winning by default rather than out of any enthusiasm for the party or their policies, and if that isn't changed, as soon as the Tories have got a fresh leader untouched by the shitstain of the current regime, particularly from 2015 onwards, they might just walk straight back in.

It's hard to see much ability or charisma waiting in the wings though, so hopefully that gives us at least a decade without them

[Davkaus]

4 minutes ago, bickster said:

We won't solve any of that without strengthening the economy, there is no point in separating the issues, they are all part of the same thing. Much stronger ties with the EU including FoM is one way of begining to fix the NHS, especially in the short term.

I think it's rather optimistic to think that reintroducing FoM could be achieved in anything like that short term. I've not checked timelines for other agreements with the EU but I'd be surprised if it's achievable within a term, even with full buy in domestically

[bickster]

11 minutes ago, Davkaus said:

I think it's rather optimistic to think that reintroducing FoM could be achieved in anything like that short term. I've not checked timelines for other agreements with the EU but I'd be surprised if it's achievable within a term, even with full buy in domestically

No I agree, so not actually talking about it now, delays things further

Thats the whole point. Starmer is absolutely avoiding the conversation, the rest of the country isn't

[OutByEaster?]

1 hour ago, Davkaus said:

The thing that worries me most is how quickly the Tories can sort themselves out.

There's a feeling that Labour are winning by default rather than out of any enthusiasm for the party or their policies, and if that isn't changed, as soon as the Tories have got a fresh leader untouched by the shitstain of the current regime, particularly from 2015 onwards, they might just walk straight back in.

It's hard to see much ability or charisma waiting in the wings though, so hopefully that gives us at least a decade without them

I don't think there's going to be time for them to do that, an election is two years away at most and I think we have a good year at least of the tiny banker. I just can't see them turning it around - the country hates them, and the bits of the country that don't hate them are dying off.

 

[Davkaus]

9 minutes ago, OutByEaster? said:

I don't think there's going to be time for them to do that, an election is two years away at most and I think we have a good year at least of the tiny banker. I just can't see them turning it around - the country hates them, and the bits of the country that don't hate them are dying off.

 

Oh absolutely, I meant after that. A Labour victory in 2024 is all but inevitable, but with it being a win because the tories are **** up so much, I think Labour need to do far more to win over actual support to avoid being a one term government

[blandy]

7 hours ago, bickster said:

We won't solve any of that without strengthening the economy, there is no point in separating the issues, they are all part of the same thing. Much stronger ties with the EU including FoM is one way of begining to fix the NHS, especially in the short term.

If Labour campaigns on the line that they’ll fix the massive problems the Country has by rejoining the EU, then they would deserve to lose.

[Demitri_C]

On 06/01/2023 at 15:54, bickster said:

Thats down to Labour when in power to prove the doubters wrong

Also worth thinking about, if the polls are currently correct, the Tory Party will be so short of MPs they won't really be an effective opposition and a good number of their current "big Guns" will have disappeared from view. What will remain of the Tory Party will be a lot of the safe seat for life nonentities that the Tory Party is full to the brim with and a few names. The well known names casualty list will be huge

Go to https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/userpoll.html 

and put in your desired figures for each party, then select, display seats that have changed hands and just go down the list of MPs that will be predicted to lose, some absolutely huge names in there from the front and back benches

I get my poll figures from Mark Packs poll tracker -> https://www.markpack.org.uk/155623/voting-intention-opinion-poll-scorecard/

I used the figures from the latest poll (Techne) which has the following prediction 25/46/9/5/8 (Con/Lab/Lib/Grn/Ref) and put those figures in the above. You get the result in seats of 115/441/18/1/0 plus the Regional/Indies A Labour majority of 230 with almost 4 times the seats of the Tories

Just a selection box of the casualties when you put those figures in:

Andrew Bowie

Graham Brady

Boris Johnson

Kwasi Kwarteng

Theresa Coffey

Penny Mordaunt

Mad Nad

JRM

Andrew Bridgen

Andrew Mitchell

Anne-Marie Trevelyan

George Eustice

IDS

Alister Jack

CHris Grayling

Ben Bradley

Liam Fox

Shaun Bailey

Grant Shapps

Esther McVey

 

And that really is just a selection I picked out on a quick glance 

The scale of the Tory defeat may well be absolutely unprecedented

We all said the same when labour get the floor wiped with them and there was splits in the party and rumours were they would split i think it was when a number of members left the labour party like chuka umunna  but labours still here.

No matter how bad the tories do at the next election they wont be goung anywhere as people will still vote them despite the shit just like die hard labour supporters who support labour no matter what.

In around 12 years of labour government we will be talking about the labour party rifts and the other problems that the country faces before the tories come back in and that the labour party will be close to collapse (they wont) then tories take over (rinse and repeat)

[bickster]

17 minutes ago, Demitri_C said:

We all said the same when labour get the floor wiped with them and there was splits in the party and rumours were they would split i think it was when a number of members left the labour party like chuka umunna  but labours still here.

No matter how bad the tories do at the next election they wont be goung anywhere as people will still vote them despite the shit just like die hard labour supporters who support labour no matter what.

In around 12 years of labour government we will be talking about the labour party rifts and the other problems that the country faces before the tories come back in and that the labour party will be close to collapse (they wont) then tories take over (rinse and repeat)

I get what you are saying Dem but there is a fundamental difference in the dem(soz)ographics.

Tory voters are largely camped in the high end of the age bands and the point where the age band equally splits between Labour and Tory has generally been shifting to an older and older age for some time. The last election was an outlier in that data as the crossover point was aged 40, the previous election in 2017, the crossover point was 47. Sticking my neck out here but if things stay as they are the crossover point will be around 50 or higher and that is really bad news for the Tories because to put it quite bluntly, their policies are killing their own voters, for the first time in a very long time, life expectancy in this country is reducing

There is another factor at play here too and that is education, those older voters are now starting to be of the age when higher education opened up and there is another correlation at play, the more educated a person is, the higher the likelihood that they will vote Labour. So the people reaching the 50-55 age band in the next few elections will be much more educated than their previous cohorts, so the trend of older Labour voters is likely to continue for some time to come. (There's a reason why The Tories always attack education)

[Demitri_C]

2 minutes ago, bickster said:

I get what you are saying Dem but there is a fundamental difference in the dem(soz)ographics.

Tory voters are largely camped in the high end of the age bands and the point where the age band equally splits between Labour and Tory has generally been shifting to an older and older age for some time. The last election was an outlier in that data as the crossover point was aged 40, the previous election in 2017, the crossover point was 47. Sticking my neck out here but if things stay as they are the crossover point will be around 50 or higher and that is really bad news for the Tories because to put it quite bluntly, their policies are killing their own voters, for the first time in a very long time, life expectancy in this country is reducing

There is another factor at play here too and that is education, those older voters are now starting to be of the age when higher education opened up and there is another correlation at play, the more educated a person is, the higher the likelihood that they will vote Labour. So the people reaching the 50-55 age band in the next few elections will be much more educated than their previous cohorts, so the trend of older Labour voters is likely to continue for some time to come. (There's a reason why The Tories always attack education)

Logocally and theoretically your right however your forgetting how many people actually voted for brexit one of the biggest disasters in our history.

I think you under estimate how many thick people we have here and can be eaisly manipulated. 

If we look at past history we usually get change of governments within a 12 year circle. I said it when tories came into power in another 12 years odd they will be out of governments and here we are.

The next election is going to be brutal for them and to the original point its not labour have done anything brilliant its the tory government being a absolute mess from detsroying the nhs, wasting money and just a general shit show. Things are going to bleak for a long time it looks like dont see how we turn this around unless we rejoin the EU which wont happen

[bickster]

10 minutes ago, Demitri_C said:

Logocally and theoretically your right however your forgetting how many people actually voted for brexit one of the biggest disasters in our history.

I think you under estimate how many thick people we have here and can be eaisly manipulated. 

If we look at past history we usually get change of governments within a 12 year circle. I said it when tories came into power in another 12 years odd they will be out of governments and here we are.

The next election is going to be brutal for them and to the original point its not labour have done anything brilliant its the tory government being a absolute mess from detsroying the nhs, wasting money and just a general shit show. Things are going to bleak for a long time it looks like dont see how we turn this around unless we rejoin the EU which wont happen

The Brexit question has pretty much the same demographic profile as the Tory Party. They couldn't have hit that sweet spot better with the referendum.