The 2015 General Election

[tonyh29]

STATS BINGE

 

map of unemployment rate

 

 

 

that  link can't be true  , it's showing a Northerner as having a job

[blandy]

 the Economist has some interesting graphs and such on it's web page here

 

it shows our economy in relation to the rest of Europe ...

 

Hard to say how it would differ had Balls been pulling the strings rather than Osborne , but our economy cleary has done better than others , not that I'd expect you to credit a Tory government for any part of this

 

Those graphs don't back up Gideon's "walking tall in Europe" phrase do they? And while we're better off than some nations, we're not anything like in the lead, as the graphs show. There's a massive gap between what the tories claim and what the truth is, and it's irksome and dishonest of them (like all politicians) to distort, lie and mislead in the way they do. They are particularly bad at it, mind.

They show that we don't have anywhere near the fastest growth, or high productivity

He said he/they were going to use manafacturing to build our way out of the mire. But what he's done is used house prices and personal debt - the very things that contributed to the orginal problem.

The forecast for growth is fairly good - it's on a par with a bunch of other European countries, but it's not anything to shout about - it's not better than the rest. And forecasts generally are less credible for obvious reasons than recorded data.

As for what balls might have done - that would be guesswork, though the Labour plan was more sane than Gideon's, it was Alistair Darling's plan, I guess.

We do know that when the tories took over the economy was growing and then after about 2 months and Gideon's cuts, it reversed - there's valid argument to say the situation would have been better, economically and that the way that the "burden" has been dished out would have been quite different.

[snowychap]

But what he's done is used house prices and personal debt - the very things that contributed to the orginal problem.

The forecast for growth is fairly good...

As you say, in order to sustain the forecast growth (magically averaging about 2.4%) over the next few years, the OBR have forecast an increase in household debt to 171% of GDP from about 145% of GDP now - that's better than their forecast from December but it still suggests that the forecast growth for the next few years is expected to be largely supported by households taking ion much more debt..

[tonyh29]

As for what balls might have done - that would be guesswork, though the Labour plan was more sane than Gideon's, it was Alistair Darling's plan, I guess.

We do know that when the tories took over the economy was growing and then after about 2 months and Gideon's cuts, it reversed - there's valid argument to say the situation would have been better, economically and that the way that the "burden" has been dished out would have been quite different.

 

 

you can see the flaw in your arguement there can't you ??

 

as for your other arguement the OBR disagree with you  ( they seem to be championed on here when they don't agree with the Tory view , so presumably they are on the approved list ?)

 

The Office for Budget Responsibility does not believe George Osborne’s austerity drive was to blame for the UK’s poor economic performance in the years after the 2010 election.

 

clicky

[snowychap]

But what he's done is used house prices...

Further to the previous post I made, a quick look at the Red book suggests that the forecasts are also based on an average 6% p.a. increase in house prices over the next four/five years and inflation remaining below target of 2% for the next four years or so.

[blandy]

As for what balls might have done - that would be guesswork, though the Labour plan was more sane than Gideon's, it was Alistair Darling's plan, I guess.

We do know that when the tories took over the economy was growing and then after about 2 months and Gideon's cuts, it reversed - there's valid argument to say the situation would have been better, economically and that the way that the "burden" has been dished out would have been quite different.

 

you can see the flaw in your arguement there can't you ??

 

as for your other arguement the OBR disagree with you  ( they seem to be championed on here when they don't agree with the Tory view , so presumably they are on the approved list ?)

  

The Office for Budget Responsibility does not believe George Osborne’s austerity drive was to blame for the UK’s poor economic performance in the years after the 2010 election.

 

clicky

No, I can't see a flaw in me saying what Balls would have done would be guesswork and Labour's plan was drawn up by Darling - perhaps you could enlighten me?

 

On the OBR - they said

On Wednesday, the fiscal watchdog repeated its judgment from last year that the chancellor’s austerity programme was “not the most obvious reason” that the economy had, until recently, been so weak.

The OBR said the biggest reason for disappointing growth had been the lack of business investment since the crisis. After falling by a quarter during the recession, the OBR in 2010 thought real business investment would return to its pre-crisis level by the second quarter of 2013, in line with previous recoveries.

Instead it has dropped another 10 per cent. This could reflect weak profits, poor credit availability, or risk aversion as the eurozone crisis flared. Investment spending has also been very weak in cash terms."

to quote more fully from the FT article - which doesn't quite the say same thing as the headline you quoted, does it? to me at least it's saying that there are more than one reasons - the most obvious being "low profits, lack of credit,  risk aversion and lack of investment. That "austerity" is "less obvious" - fine.

Now, where did "lack of investment" come from, or "Lack of credit" and what were the reasons for risk aversion? were they perhaps related to Gov't spending cuts?

 for example why would my company invest in new machines to make kit for the Gov't, if the Gov't says it's going to cut its spending on new kit?

And how would my company get credit to buy new machines, when the way the banks were regulated made them stop lending? And why would they take the risk at a time when the Gov't said basically "we're close to being like Greece" (which was rubbish).

 

It's not ALL Osborne's fault, but the Gov'ts policies and actions are a significant/the biggest factor in choking off the recovery that was in place at the time. And neither the OBR nor other respected commentators (IFS etc.) disagree with that, that I have read or found.

edit - or to quote the comment linked underneath the article

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f91be120-31d2-11e3-a16d-00144feab7de.html#ixzz3Ux7U8Tjp

Investment has been low because of the expectation that fiscal austerity, which George Osborne promises will persist, would depress domestic demand, in circumstances where global demand is also depressed, and because companies have been sceptical that recovery would be as fast as the chancellor and the Office for Budget Responsibility had forecast. And they were right to be sceptical.

The concept of the “accelerator” is relevant here: investment reacts to the rate of growth, positive or negative, of gross domestic product. So to blame low investment for poor GDP performance and to absolve the Chancellor misses the point and puts the cart before the horse.

[Demitri_C]

If labour really want to win this election they really need to ditch ed ball. One of the most unlikeable politicians I have come across.they should involve the guy who was on question time more as I think he is quite likeable (can't remember his name though)

[CarewsEyebrowDesigner]

Likeable or not, he's the best economist they have. In fact he's the best candidate for the job in a while in terms of experience and knowledge. It's about time we start putting economists in charge of the economy again.

 

Whether or not he'll be any good is another matter, and completely unrelated to the shallow politics of likeability.

[MakemineVanilla]

Both the Independent and The Times attempt to paint Cameron and Miliband as hypocrites; the question is who comes out the worst.

 

The Times says that Cameron is a hypocrite because his fridge cost £2k, and suggest that if we were really 'all in it together' everyone would have a £2k fridge.

 

The Independent say that one of Labour's secret donors is hedge fund millionaire Martin Taylor (donated £600k) - the accusation being that the Labour Party are hypocritical because they have demonised hedge funds and as they did so they were taking secret backhanders off the very same. 

[mjmooney]

I quite like Ed Balls. And his missus. Milliband gives me the creeps though.

[CarewsEyebrowDesigner]

Sky News NewsdeskVerified account ‏@SkyNewsBreak

BBC will host a five-way debate of opposition party leaders including Labour, UKIP, SNP, Greens and Plaid Cymru on 16 April #GE2015

 

 

lol.

[bickster]

Sky News NewsdeskVerified account ‏@SkyNewsBreak

BBC will host a five-way debate of opposition party leaders including Labour, UKIP, SNP, Greens and Plaid Cymru on 16 April #GE2015

 

 

lol.

Even funnier is the question and answer session between Ed and Dave, no actual debate just questions and answers.

The fact that Ed and Labour won't actually manage to make any capital out of that speaks volumes.

One runs scared of a fight, the other just lets him. Both of them are shithouses as we say round here

[markavfc40]

The whole question and answer session in the same room, on the same night but at different times is a farce. What is Cameron running scared of? he claims to be proud of his record in Government and if he is then he should be prepared to debate and defend it.

[omariqy]

Has anyone seen this story of Afzal Amin Tory MP colluding with EDL to stir up hatred re a mosque being built so they could win the seat?

[MakemineVanilla]

The Observer is reporting that the budget statement has raised the Tories 3 points ahead of Labour in the polls.

 

[chrisp65]

Has anyone seen this story of Afzal Amin Tory MP colluding with EDL to stir up hatred re a mosque being built so they could win the seat?

 

Very confused little section about it on Radio 4 earlier where he first denied anything at all then later said they'd taken tape recordings of him trying to do a deal out of context.

 

Sounded a little like he needs to take 10 minutes out, re group and decide on one version of his own story.

[bickster]

Has anyone seen this story of Afzal Amin Tory MP colluding with EDL to stir up hatred re a mosque being built so they could win the seat?

 

Very confused little section about it on Radio 4 earlier where he first denied anything at all then later said they'd taken tape recordings of him trying to do a deal out of context.

 

Sounded a little like he needs to take 10 minutes out, re group and decide on one version of his own story.

Yeah the new story is that it was taken out of context from hundreds of hours dialogue he'd had. 100's of hours of dialogue with the EDL… Fairly sure the story will change again by the time Central Office get a grip of him

[tonyh29]

Has anyone seen this story of Afzal Amin Tory MP colluding with EDL to stir up hatred re a mosque being built so they could win the seat?

Didn't someone win in 2010 with Something similar ... All be it more based around smearing his opponent by saying he was in collusion with Muslims ?

[Mantis]

The Observer is reporting that the budget statement has raised the Tories 3 points ahead of Labour in the polls.

It's interesting if you compare the poll on here to that poll:

 

Conservative: -13%

Labour: -5%

Lib Dem:  -3%

UKIP: -4%

Green: +18%

Other: +6%

 

Don't know if that's something that would be repeated across much of the internet - my gut feeling is it probably would be.

[CarewsEyebrowDesigner]

Salmond seems to be doing his very best to cause a rise in English nationalism.