The 2015 General Election

[CarewsEyebrowDesigner]

Greens aren't standing in my constituency, so I'll probably go for any lefty that bothers to run against the usual sectarian lot.

[Risso]

 

 

What's that got to do with immigration?

Well, Switzerland and Norway, Iceland etc. -  the EFTA countries  - not in the EU but with "free trade agreements" are obliged to allow exactly the same free movement of people as a full EU member.

Switzerland did a referendum on immigration limits, voted for limits, went to the EU asking for a renegotiation on free movement and were told flat out NO.

UKIPs are saying they'll do something they know twice over that they can't and won't do. Liars.

 

 

Sorry Pete, but you're completely wrong on that in my opinion.  You're honestly comparing the UK's bargaining position on trade to that of Iceland and Switzerland?  Really?  I think that countries like Germany would quite like us to carry on buying their cars, for example the UK is BMW's third largest market by sales.  Why would Germany let the EU put trade barriers in place that would hurt that?  How would it benefit them to insist on the free movement of people to be a required part of any free trade agreement?

There are no precedents of the EU block allowing any nation to impose immigaraton restrictions yet maintain free trade without tariffs etc. There are examples of the opposite, as I provided.

We also know for fact that Merkel (as you mention germany) absolutely rejected (admitedly ham fisted) Cameron efforts to see if the free movement thing could be changed.

There is no prospect of either UKIP getting in control of the UK or of the EU allowing the UK to keep all the bits that favour us (e.g. free trade) and ditch the ones we (well UKIP etc) don't like, such as free movement.

Even supposing that the EU (with us having left) was prepared to negotiate on trade and movement of people, there's nil chance of the outcome Farage presents - exactly the same on trade as now, but total control over UK immigration.

There would be counter steps against UK people going to the EU, there would be some level of tarriffs imposed harming our trade. and while the UK might buy a lot of Beemers, the German gov't (and the rest of the EU) isn't going to give the UK what it wants for fear of 10% (or whatever the figure is) of BMWs market being affected by some sort of (say 3% tariff on their cars.

 

And what happens to the current UK - a chunk of Tories and UKIPs want to leave the EU. The Scots don't, the Welsh don't, nor NI. If "we" after a close vote were to leave, the Scotch and Welshers would end up having hugely strong claims for Independence - they want to be in the EU, and just because England (just about) might not have wanted to stay, they shouldn't be forced to leave, they'd say.

 

It's just a massive self inflicted mess, this Referendum stuff and all the promises, caused by some mentalist tory and UKIP pillocks.

 

 

There's also no precedent of the country with the second biggest economy possibly wanting to opt out of the EU, and so any discussion of them not allowing us to do certain things is largely irrelevant.  Who would it benefit in Europe to have a tit for tat trade war by imposing restrictions where none existed before?   It would cost Germany and France a huge amount if it was harder for their companies to do business in the UK.   How exactly would they lose out if the UK stopped letting hundreds and thousands of Eastern Europeans in?  And you honestly can't know in the UK who does or doesn't want to leave the EU without having a referendum. 

 

There's also the very real possibility of the EU and the Euro descending into chaos entirely of their accord because of the instability in Greece etc.

[blandy]

There's also no precedent of the country with the second biggest economy possibly wanting to opt out of the EU, and so any discussion of them not allowing us to do certain things is largely irrelevant.  Who would it benefit in Europe to have a tit for tat trade war by imposing restrictions where none existed before?   It would cost Germany and France a huge amount if it was harder for their companies to do business in the UK.   How exactly would they lose out if the UK stopped letting hundreds and thousands of Eastern Europeans in?  And you honestly can't know in the UK who does or doesn't want to leave the EU without having a referendum. 

 

There's also the very real possibility of the EU and the Euro descending into chaos entirely of their accord because of the instability in Greece etc.

You say that There's also no precedent of the country with the second biggest economy possibly wanting to opt out of the EU, and so any discussion of them not allowing us to do certain things is largely irrelevant.

The first part is true. If the second was valid,  then it would also be the case that "discussion of them allowing us what we want is largely irrelevant" must be valid. But neither is valid, clearly.

What kind of numpties* would make a leap into the unknown without first trying to discuss and understand what the outcome would look like? [*the UKIPs are numpties]

 

UKIPs and anyone else just saying "we can have what we want, and we'll not lose out on anything" are either idiotic or liars, or both.

 

Another parallel would be that The EU is currently negotiating with the U.S. on a Trade Agreement (TTIP). The EU sells about 1.5 times as much stuff to the US as the US does to the EU.

So like with the hypothetical UK situation, there's a similar incentive for the EU to give the US what it wants, right?

 

But guess what. Neither side is getting everything they want. It's one of the fundamentals of coming to a deal - basically both sides have to give.

 

Likewise (post leaving of the EU), the UK would not be able to get everything "we" want, and "we" would also have to concede on other areas. We can't get everything we want while we're in it, when there's more incentive in many cases for other nations to allow us. After giving them the finger and leaving their club, they'll be less sympathetic. 

There would unarguably be strong anti UK feeling amongst the other EU nations. What would the Spanish say about the Brits living in Spain, using their health service and schools etc.?

What would the Poles say about us leaving in order to prevent Polish (and other) people from living in the UK - these things and so much more would cause anger and a desire to basically hurt the UK Gov't of the time.

So while (say) the Germans might feel they want to be benign to us, because of BMW and Mercedes and Bosch and Miele and Audi ...the Poles and the Bulgarians and Spanish may very well say ""stuff the UK". Leaving us losing out on much of what "we" want.

[Risso]

 

What would the Spanish say about the Brits living in Spain, using their health service and schools etc.?

 

 

What do they say about non-EU people who live there now?

[CarewsEyebrowDesigner]

handy wee quiz for the undecideds http://election2015.votematch.org/

 

for some reason NI parties didn't bother taking part so i used a postcode in birmingham. anyway, i got

 

90% Green

70% Labour

23% Tory

[Chindie]

I just did that quiz.

74% Green

70% Labour

60% Lib Dem

30% Conservative

I'm surprised I matched that closely with any of them (and not surprised the Tories came that low...).

I was also surprised that my constituency appears to favour Greens so far in the small number of polls done.

I still can't bring myself to do anything than scribble mindlessly over the ballot sheet come the day. Labour will win the seat again, it's been safe for years iirc, despite the fact our MP used to have a cited comment on his wiki page that noted him as a moron.

[mjmooney]

I got

 

90% Green

64% Labour

58% LibDem

 

(I excluded Tories and UKIP as "would never vote for") 

[Chindie]

I excluded UKIP but I can only assume they'd be even lower than the Tories, given that they're basically an exaggerated Tory party with a gimmick.

Edit: actually it seems they go in ahead of the Tories with 49%. Now that is a damming indictment of CallmeDave.

Edited April 9, 2015 by Chindie

[blandy]

 

 

What would the Spanish say about the Brits living in Spain, using their health service and schools etc.?

 

 

What do they say about non-EU people who live there now?

 

Similar to what people in the UK say - a number don't like it at all. And for often similar reasons. Currently they have to live with it, if we leave the EU, then they wouldn't have to.

[mjmooney]

What would the Spanish say about the Brits living in Spain, using their health service and schools etc.?

What do they say about non-EU people who live there now?

Similar to what people in the UK say - a number don't like it at all. And for often similar reasons. Currently they have to live with it, if we leave the EU, then they wouldn't have to.

Actually, that would be brilliant - all those UKIPpers living in Spain getting kicked out. Oh, the irony.

[Rodders]

plaid

labour

lib dem

 

in that order, although they appeared to think the greens weren't standing in my neck of the woods - would likely be sharing similar spots with plaid if that was the case. 

 

so far, have had one slightly timid lad from labour come round, inquire quietly about who I'm voting for and then offered some leaflets before leaving as quickly as he could. Given that I'd told him I didn't know who I'd be voting for, although not Tory was a start, you thought he might have been a bit keener for a chat. Oh well, still - get's points for turning up I suppose. 

[Condimentalist]

I got:

 

Green 90%

Lib Dem 67%

Labour 64%

Tories 27%

 

For those that are interested, the Walthamstow people are

 

61% Green

21% Labour

7% UKIP

6% Lib Dem

4% Tory

 

It's a safe Labour seat here.

[tonyh29]

69% lib dem

58% Tory

49% ukip

31% labour

31% Greens

Seems I agree with the greens on free school meals and governments not snooping on us

[tonyh29]

I got

90% Green

64% Labour

58% LibDem

(I excluded Tories and UKIP as "would never vote for")

Base in policies then it's likely you'd have scored 64% Tory then

[PompeyVillan]

Green Party - 88%

Labour - 72%

Liberal Democrats - 69%

Sorry but I won't waste my vote on the Green party.

[Jon]

69% lib dem

58% Tory

49% ukip

31% labour

31% Greens

Seems I agree with the greens on free school meals and governments not snooping on us

voting lieberal democrat then mr loc?

[tonyh29]

69% lib dem

58% Tory

49% ukip

31% labour

31% Greens

Seems I agree with the greens on free school meals and governments not snooping on us

voting lieberal democrat then mr loc?

I'm not even sure if they have a candidate here tbh .... Though I could say that for all the parties not had a single leaflet or even seen any of those posters in the windows that weird people have

But then this is also a safe Tory seat so maybe people are just assuming it's not worth the effort

As to the result i'd have to look at the test in more detail as it seemed a bit loaded to me , I find it highly surprising ( and worrying) that people are getting 90% green results for example ... Maybe their policies aren't well represented in the real world and are actually quite good / sensible policies of you look beyond the weak leader or maybe VT really is a hot bed of lefty guardian reading tree huggers

Edited April 9, 2015 by tonyh29

[Jon]

91 % green.

Kippers and the evils tied on 28 % in last place.

[Chindie]

That test is definitely flawed, it focuses on the 'big ticket' policies (defence, health, education, economy) in the briefest headline way. On this basis, the Green Party is basically fairly down the middle Left. The only point where it touches on the Greens more... defining policies is obviously in the environment, but again is only in brief headline terms.

Unfortunately for the Greens when looked at in depth, and when looking at their policies on the less fundamental matters, they become more fringe. If that test was as in depth as it could be, the Greens don't come anywhere near as popular as they seem to be at the moment on it.

[Demitri_C]

ed doing well in polls just like i predicted. i think if its labour it will be just as shit just more spending and tax increases. but rather labour on their own than with snp. if that coalition happens its going to be much worse for us i think