The 2015 General Election

[Demitri_C]

 

Just a hypothetical question, if the EU didn't exist and you were in charge of starting a new union up with the 28 states currently in it, would you choose to have complete freedom of movement?

Yes. Absolutely, yes.

 

Only if they not allowed to claim any benefits until they have lived and contributed to the economy legally for 5 years

[snowychap]

Only if they not allowed to claim any benefits until they have lived and contributed to the economy legally for 5 years

Why 5 years?

Why not 2? Why not 17?

[chrisp65]

 

 

Just a hypothetical question, if the EU didn't exist and you were in charge of starting a new union up with the 28 states currently in it, would you choose to have complete freedom of movement?

Yes. Absolutely, yes.

 

Only if they not allowed to claim any benefits until they have lived and contributed to the economy legally for 5 years

 

 

..and if someone arrives and buys a million pound house pushing up property prices, they should be taxed sufficiently to build an affordable house...

[Demitri_C]

 

Only if they not allowed to claim any benefits until they have lived and contributed to the economy legally for 5 years

Why 5 years?

Why not 2? Why not 17?

 

Huh?

[snowychap]

Only if they not allowed to claim any benefits until they have lived and contributed to the economy legally for 5 years

Why 5 years?

Why not 2? Why not 17?

Huh?

Why the arbitrary amount of 5 years?

Other than it being something that I (seem to*) remember Farage coming out with some time last year.

*Ed.

Edited April 7, 2015 by snowychap

[tonyh29]

The Europe referendum thing that the tories have said they'll do in 2 years if they get in, is basically because there's a significant rump of the tory party that wants to leave Europe, and it's the only way the less mad part of that party could hold them all together, just about, and stop them all effing off to the UKIP nutters and so ruining their chances of getting to be Gov't again - it's just self preservation of their jobs.

There is of course also a fair part of the population that would like to leave yurp, or if asked would say they do. But as to how many people think it's that big a deal either way, it's not so much of a big thing for most people. Those that it is a big deal for tend to be almost rabid about it, and it tends to be the more elderly (though not exclusively) - people who remember the world war 2.

It seems to me it's sort of replaced hanging as the thing a bunch of people absolutely insist is sooo important. The rest might have a view one way or the other, but they're not really bothered.

Europe and leaving will go the way of the hanging thing too. No longer an issue. Or like Fox huntering it'll be a niche thing, but again the majority, by far, will have moved on with it, accepted and realised it's from the past and really isn't something that's of any matter.

Even the UKIPs have sort of moved on a bit, and are now as much (they say) about foreigners and other stuff that they can use to attract whatever group of disparate malcontents with single issues. Incoherent crap, basically.

I got the impression on Europe that it was more than the Vera Lyn brigade to be honest , some polls had it as 51% voting to leave ( though it didn't say the demographic of those people )

It's another subject matter akin to global warming where you never get a sensible debate just a straight on come the blinkers argument

There are some good reasons to leave The EU and there are some good reasons to stay in it .. It isn't really a high priority but a debate in 2017 would be good to have

[tonyh29]

I guess the people should be allowed to move at least as freely as the money and the tax address.

Anyway, if everyone has to go back to their home country, where are we going to put the 5.5 MILLION Brits that live abroad (google the newspaper of your choice for the figure, 2 million in europe. 3 million further afield - even the Heil agrees the figures)?

Does the heil state if those 5.5 m people are self sufficient in their chosen country or claiming benefits ? Are they getting free health care or having to pay for it ... Etc etc

Of course not every immigrant to this country is claiming benefits ( though arguably they are clogging up the NHS as recent figures have shown )

[snowychap]

Of course not every immigrant to this country is claiming benefits ( though arguably they are clogging up the NHS as recent figures have shown )

Will those be the recent figures confirming the net economic benefit of those immigrants?

[PompeyVillan]

What does slightly worry me about the euro debate is that all the major parties now have a policy on 'immigration'. Which in theory means immigrants will not be able to claim benefits for a few years when they arrive here and in reality could marginalise and impoverish an important demographic.

I see people coming here, finding it tough and ending up on the streets, not going home with the proposed policies. When we could help people get one their feet if they are desperate and then they can contribute to the country for many years in the future.

[tonyh29]

Of course not every immigrant to this country is claiming benefits ( though arguably they are clogging up the NHS as recent figures have shown )

Will those be the recent figures confirming the net economic benefit of those immigrants?

Short answer is no as I was specifically referring to the NHS , I quoted the figures in another thread and will have to find them again but it suggested the NHS performance had improved but it couldn't cope with the excess demands immigration was having on it

Long answer is , You'll have to quote the figures that support the claim you are putting forward as the picture is somewhat cloudy

This article for example appears rather thorough and gives various different views, not least this one

Rowthorn (2014) re-evaluated the estimates of Dustmann and Frattini (2013) for recent migrants. In particular, he argues for the need of a British worker displacement adjustment given the evidence that migration displaces British workers. After this and other adjustments he finds a negative impact of recent EEA migration of about GBP -0.3 billion and a negative impact of recent non-EEA migration of GBP -29.7 billion.

http://www.migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/briefings/fiscal-impact-immigration-uk

[snowychap]

Long answer is , You'll have to quote the figures that support the claim you are putting forward as the picture is somewhat cloudy

It's at least as cloudy as the thing that you've referenced (if I remember, it was that immigration from the A8 countries had a considerable net economic benefit - I linked it about 4/5 times around 2008 when the data came out - I'm not sure it's still available but I think I've got a hard copy - if you pay me and I find it then I'll scan it)).

I'm just rather surprised that we find you on the side of the argument that you appear keen to be on.

Edit: I'm not just surprised: I'm very disappointed.

Edited April 8, 2015 by snowychap

[tonyh29]

Long answer is , You'll have to quote the figures that support the claim you are putting forward as the picture is somewhat cloudy

It's at least as cloudy as the thing that you've referenced (if I remember, it was that immigration from the A8 countries had a considerable net economic benefit - I linked it about 4/5 times around 2008 when the data came out - I'm not sure it's still available but I think I've got a hard copy - if you pay me and I find it then I'll scan it)).

I'm just rather surprised that we find you on the side of the argument that you appear keen to be on.

Edit: I'm not just surprised: I'm very disappointed.

You sound like my mother

I've not expressed a side on this , I was offering an opinion against facts that often get quoted , to show that nothing is black and white ... I wasn't aware that offering a counter argument made me have to sit on the naughty step ....As that article says an immigrant takes a job and pays taxes , great, he's a plus to the country and so we can quote that as one in the eye for UKIP ... But what about the person already living here that didn't get that job , what is now his impact on the economy ?

My view on the EU is documented , I think we can be better off out of it and id at least like to see the argument being had , sensibly, without the phrase "little Englander" being used

My views on immigration I don't believe I actually stated

[snowychap]

You sound like my mother

Ha ha.

Apologies for that.

As that article says an immigrant takes a job and pays taxes , great, he's a plus to the country and so we can quote that as one in the eye for UKIP ... But what about the person already living here that didn't get that job , what is now his impact on the economy ?

The assumption therein that native and immigrant labour are perfect substitutes for each other would seem to me to be quite mistaken.

[Risso]

I guess the people should be allowed to move at least as freely as the money and the tax address.

 

Anyway, if everyone has to go back to their home country, where are we going to put the 5.5 MILLION  Brits that live abroad (google the newspaper of your choice for the figure, 2 million in europe. 3 million further afield - even the Heil agrees the figures)?

 

I don't see the relevance of that.  The specific problem that the membership of the EU has caused the UK, is that over a million Eastern Europeans moved to the UK in a small space of time, an influx that the then government said wouldn't happen, and has since admitted that it got massively wrong.  Of course people move around the planet from one country to another, but they don't often do it in the numbers that have moved to the UK all at once.

[tonyh29]

the poll of polls  tracker on the Sky web page is quite interesting

 

alas I can't copy it in as it's done with some form of interweb witchcraft , but the UKIP vote % based on the polls has dropped off by around 5% since the November polls

 

there isn't a real 5% spike in any other parties poll result to suggest they have all gone to a single party , however the Conservative % has seen a gradual increase as the UKIP one has dipped , so have the Tories done enough talk on Europe to see off some of the UKIP threat ?

 

Greens appear to be lumped in under "others" and even that support is currently starting to tail off from previous highs

Edited April 8, 2015 by tonyh29

[Jon]

No surprise to see the Green lumped in with 'Others' in the Sky Poll Tracker.

 

In the Beeb one, they have been polling between 7 and 5% over the the last 2 to 3 Months. The Kippers have been at a fairly consistent 15 to 13% during that time. For 'smaller' parties such as though, these countrywide polls are not so important (though they are still of some importance on a democratic level). It's about doing well in those targetted few seats for these players. Green siwll be looking at 2 to 3 wins, and kippers up to double figures, as they have the resources to try for that. I think the Greens may peak at 2 seats, which would would be progress of sorts, but makes a bit of a sham of our 'democratic' system of electing our representatives. 

[choffer]

I think she sums up how I feel about it all at the moment:

 

[tonyh29]

I think she sums up how I feel about it all at the moment:

 

good to see schools teaching kids acceptable terms for women  .. presumably Ho is just out of screen

[chrisp65]

 

I guess the people should be allowed to move at least as freely as the money and the tax address.

 

Anyway, if everyone has to go back to their home country, where are we going to put the 5.5 MILLION  Brits that live abroad (google the newspaper of your choice for the figure, 2 million in europe. 3 million further afield - even the Heil agrees the figures)?

 

I don't see the relevance of that.  The specific problem that the membership of the EU has caused the UK, is that over a million Eastern Europeans moved to the UK in a small space of time, an influx that the then government said wouldn't happen, and has since admitted that it got massively wrong.  Of course people move around the planet from one country to another, but they don't often do it in the numbers that have moved to the UK all at once.

 

 

According to the Office of National Stats there were just under 900,000 east europeans in the UK in February.

There were 1.1 million non EU immigrants in the UK, but we don't appear to be quite so worried about them for some reason? 

In 2013 there were 24,000 Romanians and Bulgarians that came to Britain, a further 37,000 arrived in 2014. Big numbers. In the 2011 census, there were 177,000 americans living in the UK. I've never heard any reference to these as a group. Or the Irish, Nigerians, Jamaicans and South Africans, that lot come to well over a million. 

 

I agree that a large influx of people will put a strain on the system, that much must be obvious. I don't get why it's ok for Indians, French, Germans and Australians to turn up, but not Poles. Are we worried about the total number, or the country of origin?

[tonyh29]

The Americans need a work permit and visa to come work /live here , ditto the Indians , Nigerians , South Africans etc  ..Indeed many a Kiwi I worked with had to go home after x  years as their work permits weren't renewed for some reason

 

the 900,000 EU citizens have no such restriction as I understand things ... and I was also given the impression we had absolutely no idea how many had come from the EU  ? the poles that I take my car to once a fortnight do a great job and work harder and longer hours than anyone I've ever met (school teachers excepted of course )  ..but without doubt most of them are working cash in hand and probably don't exist on any system