AVTuco Posted April 8, 2015 VT Supporter Share Posted April 8, 2015 Burnley match will be a treat. I'm looking forward to the nerves already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
useless Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 I'll be disappointed if we aren't safe by the time we play Burnley, I think we can be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulC Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 Yes but the loss of 5 pts from our last two home games makes it highly likely we won't be safe by the time we play Burnley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AndyGray1985 Posted April 8, 2015 Visiting Supporter Share Posted April 8, 2015 I just did a prediction of all of the remaining results. I had us staying up on the last day by beating Burnley. A draw would have been enough. Defeat would mean relegation on goal difference. WBA 36 Villa 36 Burnley 35 Sunderland 34 Hull 33 QPR 33 Leicester 30 This is the most probable scenario, IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayEm Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 If Leicester are down by the last game it means QPR will have a much easier final day than us. I still think it's just about in our own hands, but we really ought to be in a better position now. 7 points under Tim Sherwood is the minimum, if not less than, we've deserved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AndyGray1985 Posted April 8, 2015 Visiting Supporter Share Posted April 8, 2015 just did predictor and have Hull, Sunderland and Leicester to go down and QPR up on goal difference. we finish over Newcastle by a goal and point behind West Brom and Burnley with 36 and relegated teams have 30 You should put money on that - extremely unlikely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zatman Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 just did predictor and have Hull, Sunderland and Leicester to go down and QPR up on goal difference. we finish over Newcastle by a goal and point behind West Brom and Burnley with 36 and relegated teams have 30 You should put money on that - extremely unlikely I dont think Paddy Power take such specific bets but I still think Hull are doomed, their fixtures are like Norwich last season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arj Guy Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 If Leicester are down by the last game it means QPR will have a much easier final day than us. I still think it's just about in our own hands, but we really ought to be in a better position now. 7 points under Tim Sherwood is the minimum, if not less than, we've deserved. Leicester are the type of side who will give it all in the last match even if they are down. They've been adrift for most of the season and they still seem to give 100%. Won't be easy for QPR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AndyGray1985 Posted April 8, 2015 Visiting Supporter Share Posted April 8, 2015 just did predictor and have Hull, Sunderland and Leicester to go down and QPR up on goal difference. we finish over Newcastle by a goal and point behind West Brom and Burnley with 36 and relegated teams have 30 You should put money on that - extremely unlikely I dont think Paddy Power take such specific bets but I still think Hull are doomed, their fixtures are like Norwich last season I think Hull are likely to go down too. Leicester and QPR will most likely be their companions. But Sunderland is currently not - and I don't see why they should be. That could very well change, but as things stand I can't see them going down. As for the gap between relegated teams and 17th 6 points seems big margin as I see it - and not very likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zatman Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 why not Sunderland? they cant score, have an uninspired manager and only beat Newcastle with a wondergoal and the fact Newcastle didnt bother to attack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AndyGray1985 Posted April 8, 2015 Visiting Supporter Share Posted April 8, 2015 why not Sunderland? they cant score, have an uninspired manager and only beat Newcastle with a wondergoal and the fact Newcastle didnt bother to attack Well, their starting point is much better than the teams I predict to go down, and (to me) their remaining games seems more likely to win or draw. And vs. Villa they have a game in hand, which except for a big loss would always be an advantage. My guess would be that we have a 1/4 chance of going down, whilst Sunderland would be 1/5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arj Guy Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 Probably only need 2 more wins. All our home games are winnable. Everton, West Ham and Burnley. We can take some points from Spurs and Southampton away, although it will be tough. Man City is a write off imo. Think 35 points will be enough and I think we'll get them. Just Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leviramsey Posted April 8, 2015 VT Supporter Share Posted April 8, 2015 Leicester: 75.4%QPR: 74.2%Burnley: 54.3%Villa: 36.5%Hull: 33.1%Sunderland: 25.7%WBA: 0.7%Newcastle: 0.1%Leicester: 77.2% ^QPR: 70.2% ^Burnley: 53.5%Villa: 36.4% vvHull: 34.8% vvSunderland: 27.1% ^^WBA: 0.7%Newcastle: 0.1% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AndyGray1985 Posted April 8, 2015 Visiting Supporter Share Posted April 8, 2015 Leicester: 75.4% QPR: 74.2% Burnley: 54.3% Villa: 36.5% Hull: 33.1% Sunderland: 25.7% WBA: 0.7% Newcastle: 0.1% Leicester: 77.2% ^ QPR: 70.2% ^ Burnley: 53.5% Villa: 36.4% vv Hull: 34.8% vv Sunderland: 27.1% ^^ WBA: 0.7% Newcastle: 0.1% These numbers differ quite a bit from the Statto odds - usually they correlate much better. I wonder where the models differ? - Statto is based on the last 50 games played on a rolling average, as I understand it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supernova26 Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 I'd say 35 points looking at it pragmatically. It's wrong to write off all 3 of our aways so I'm going to say we'll pick up a point out of them. It's equally as wrong to suggest we'd beat West Ham and/or Everton at home but I'd say a minimum 2 points out of these matches (we can draw two or win one at least) Burnley at home final day guaranteed full-house if decider = 3 points. We can realistically beat these at home, we'd have no choice but to win. Total = 35 points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoelVilla Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 Did the Predictor and had us safe with 34 points. Draws against Burnley and Everton and win against West Ham. Hull, Burnley and QPR relegated which makes my predictions terrible. Looked how Leicester could make it and I had them on 4 wins in the last 8 putting them at 34 points just like us. Unlikely they be close to that. Leicester play QPR in the last round and us against Burnley. Lets hope we are safe before that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tayls Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 Where do some people have us picking up 7 points from? We'll get another 3, 4 at an absolute maximum. The reality is, we have picked up a staggering 19 points from 28 games since the opening 4 games of the season. There is no way we are getting 7 points from 6... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mantis Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 Where do some people have us picking up 7 points from? We'll get another 3, 4 at an absolute maximum. The reality is, we have picked up a staggering 19 points from 28 games since the opening 4 games of the season. There is no way we are getting 7 points from 6... It would seem more relevant to look at the points we've picked up since Sherwood's arrived. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zatman Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 west ham, burnley, everton home, have a high scoring draw southampton away(all depends how they are in terms Europe) maybe Spurs again how they feel about Europe and Tim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VillaChris Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 If we defend well, we can nick a point at Spurs. Big IF with the defending against QPR though. We need to beat one of Everton/West Ham really, at least that should mean we wouldn't be bottom 3 going into the last day and would have our fate in our own hands. Yeah I had the Southampton away game down as a defeat but we usually do alright down there and they won't be in top 4 contention and might just be playing the season out so possible we could grind out a draw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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