John Posted September 30, 2014 Share Posted September 30, 2014 "If we're not on 42ish points come the end of that Swansea game, we'll have failed" - Worst case I have us on 36 points by then P3te and on 45 points at the season end which is progress albeit not as much as we would have liked. Better case I have us on 48 points and on 59 at the end of the season. Best case I have us clinching the title with a last day home win against Burnley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
P3te Posted September 30, 2014 Share Posted September 30, 2014 Come the end of the Swansea game I think we'll be doing well to add another 9, that's why I'd be disappointed with anything less than 42 at that stage, which I think is most definitely doable unless we really screw the pooch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Fun Factory Posted September 30, 2014 Share Posted September 30, 2014 We had a favourable run of fixtures last xmas and failed dismally so I'm not getting my hopes up. We always stink the place out over xmas, usually followed by a early FA Cup exit. Start of the season I was thinking just to stay up. perhaps now a mid table finish. We are not run like a top 10 club and I doubt we will finish there.12th to 16th I think. Now I might have to watch those season reviews as posted by Enda. Start at 2011-12? Stuff to give you nightmares! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leviramsey Posted October 1, 2014 Author VT Supporter Share Posted October 1, 2014 Current:2nd: 0.1%3rd: 0.4%4th: 0.7%5th: 1.3%6th: 1.8%7th: 2.7%8th: 3.5%9th: 4.5%10th: 5.5%11th: 6.6%^^^ upper quartile12th: 7.6%13th: 8.4%14th: 9.4% == median15th: 10.3%16th: 10.4% == max likelihoodvvv lower quartile17th: 9.5%18th: 8.0%19th: 6.1%20th: 3.2%I was too busy for the past couple of weeks to post, but, for Friday 26 September:3rd: 0.2%4th: 0.5%5th: 1.0%6th: 1.9%7th: 3.0%8th: 4.6%9th: 6.4%10th: 8.0%^^^ upper quartile11th: 9.6%12th: 9.4%13th: 11.3% == median, max likelihood14th: 10.3%15th: 9.3%vvv lower quartile16th: 8.1%17th: 6.7%18th: 5.0%19th: 3.2%20th: 1.5%1st: 0.5%2nd: 1.4%3rd: 2.7%4th: 3.9%5th: 5.3%6th: 6.3%7th: 7.6%^^^ upper quartile8th: 8.4%9th: 8.3%10th: 9.7% == median, maximum likelihood11th: 8.4%12th: 8.2%vvv lower quartile13th: 7.3%14th: 6.4%15th: 5.2%16th: 4.0%17th: 3.0%18th: 1.9%19th: 1.1%20th: 0.4% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enda Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 I understand the problems with these estimation techniques, and I like to get the weekly update. But my sense is that your results are too sensitive to current results, Levi. Since mid-September, by your estimation, our chance of coming 18th jumped from 1.9% to 8%. I don't think there's enough information in losing to Arsenal and Chelsea to see a quadrupling in that risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
P3te Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 Do these monte carlos only use our own results, or do they factor in other teams' results in games not involving us too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tomaszk Posted October 3, 2014 Share Posted October 3, 2014 Bottom 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Demitri_C Posted October 3, 2014 Share Posted October 3, 2014 12TH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swerbs Posted October 3, 2014 Share Posted October 3, 2014 10th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulC Posted October 5, 2014 Share Posted October 5, 2014 Anywhere between 12th and 18th.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VillaChris Posted October 5, 2014 Share Posted October 5, 2014 Still too early to say, West Ham were 17th this afternoon and their won has taken them up to 6th I think so the table has yet to settle down. Normally a good guide to me is after 10 games, 5 home and 5 away is a decent indication of a teams strength and weaknesses so I'll be back on this thread after the Spurs game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vive_La_Villa Posted October 5, 2014 Share Posted October 5, 2014 12th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leviramsey Posted October 9, 2014 Author VT Supporter Share Posted October 9, 2014 I understand the problems with these estimation techniques, and I like to get the weekly update. But my sense is that your results are too sensitive to current results, Levi. Since mid-September, by your estimation, our chance of coming 18th jumped from 1.9% to 8%. I don't think there's enough information in losing to Arsenal and Chelsea to see a quadrupling in that risk. Do these monte carlos only use our own results, or do they factor in other teams' results in games not involving us too?Every game in league, Europe, and cups is counted (technically, the criteria for inclusion is: Champions League, Europa League, and any game involving a top division club in a domestic competition which would qualify for Europe in England, Spain, Germany, Italy, France, Russia, Netherlands, Portugal, Ukraine, Turkey, and Belgium, assuming that the opponent has multiple sufficiently recent such games as well).For this early part of the season, the latter portion of last season is included in the assessment process (though results this season are counted for more). I would suspect that aging out of good results from last season (e.g. the win over Chelsea) played the greatest role in the rating decline over the past month or so. The win over Liverpool has also become less impressive as old results age out.For now, these are the games being considered for rating (opponent rankings out of 275 clubs with sufficient games; Villa are ranked 197th)#135 Crystal Palace 1-0 VillaVilla 0-0 Southampton #44#28 Swansea 4-1 VillaVilla 3-1 Hull #198#8 Man City 4-0 Villa#40 Spurs 3-0 Villa#145 Stoke 0-1 VillaVilla 0-0 Newcastle #262Villa 2-1 Hull #198#97 Liverpool 0-1 VillaVilla 0-3 Arsenal #32#3 Chelsea 3-0 VillaVilla 0-2 Man City #8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leviramsey Posted October 9, 2014 Author VT Supporter Share Posted October 9, 2014 And based on that sample of games3rd: 0.2%4th: 0.4%5th: 0.6%6th: 1.0%7th: 1.6%8th: 2.2%9th: 3.0%10th: 3.9%11th: 5.0%12th: 6.2%^^^ upper quartile13th: 7.5%14th: 8.8%15th: 10.2% == median16th: 11.5%17th: 11.5% == max likelihoodvvv lower quartile18th: 11.4%19th: 9.3%20th: 5.7%2nd: 0.1%3rd: 0.4%4th: 0.7%5th: 1.3%6th: 1.8%7th: 2.7%8th: 3.5%9th: 4.5%10th: 5.5%11th: 6.6%^^^ upper quartile12th: 7.6%13th: 8.4%14th: 9.4% == median15th: 10.3%16th: 10.4% == max likelihoodvvv lower quartile17th: 9.5%18th: 8.0%19th: 6.1%20th: 3.2% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leviramsey Posted October 20, 2014 Author VT Supporter Share Posted October 20, 2014 4th: 0.1%5th: 0.2%6th: 0.5%7th: 0.7%8th: 1.1%9th: 1.8%10th: 2.4%11th: 3.3%12th: 4.4%13th: 5.6%14th: 7.2%^^^ upper quartile15th: 9.0%16th: 11.3%17th: 13.8% == median18th: 15.2% == max likelihoodvvv lower quartile19th: 14.2%20th: 9.2%3rd: 0.2%4th: 0.4%5th: 0.6%6th: 1.0%7th: 1.6%8th: 2.2%9th: 3.0%10th: 3.9%11th: 5.0%12th: 6.2%^^^ upper quartile13th: 7.5%14th: 8.8%15th: 10.2% == median16th: 11.5%17th: 11.5% == max likelihoodvvv lower quartile18th: 11.4%19th: 9.3%20th: 5.7% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
briny_ear Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 Yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shaw_nuff Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 Worried. We create nothing. Worry if we create nothing against bottom half teams. We created plenty v Hull and I was happy with the chances at Stoke. We've been unlucky. As much as I was critical last season of always going on losing runs after great wins, these two games we were always going to struggle to pick up more than a point tbh. Last weekend was a write off and you can count on one hand teams who'll pick up anything at Stamford Bridge this season. Hopefully we can get something v Man. City and Everton with Benteke back, four straight defeats would be disappointing. How are you feeling now? My feelings haven't altered. We're a mess from top to bottom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 19th. Burnley - on paper at least - are the weakest team in the division, and haven't done much to improve. I think we may be the worst of the rest. We smell of decay. I have revised my prediction fractionally upwards. I think 17th or 18th is more realistic over the length of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
7392craig Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 I'm usually quite optimistic about where we will finish each season. But I think this season we may have dabbled with relegation one too many times and not improved afterwards, I'm genuinely worried now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AVTuco Posted October 21, 2014 VT Supporter Share Posted October 21, 2014 (edited) I'll change my prediction from 13-16th to Champions League place, and I'm not kidding. I think we can do it. My confidence is shaking a bit, I must confess. Recent losses to our main rivals have been a major disappointment. Hopefully we can rebound. Edited October 21, 2014 by AVTuco Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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