Con Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 (edited) Prediction Contest Results Scoring rules: correct score + result = 10 pts, correct result + half-correct score = 7 pts, correct result = 5 pts, half-correct score = 2 pts. Actual Results Arsenal 3 : 0 Newcastle Crystal Palace 0 : 2 Man City Fulham 2 : 2 Hull Liverpool 0 : 2 Chelsea Man Utd 4 : 0 Norwich Southampton 2 : 0 Everton Stoke 0 : 1 Tottenham Sunderland 4 : 0 Cardiff Swansea 4 : 1 Aston Villa West Brom 1 : 0 West Ham Con Arsenal 4 : 0 Newcastle +7 Crystal Palace 0 : 6 Man City +7 Fulham 0 : 2 Hull +2 Liverpool 0 : 1 Chelsea +7 Gerrard will miss a penalty -1 Man Utd 5 : 0 Norwich +7 Southampton 1 : 1 Everton +0 Stoke 1 : 1 Tottenham +2 Sunderland 3 : 3 Cardiff +0 Swansea 1 : 2 Aston Villa +0 Swansea will have a player sent off -1 West Brom 4 : 1 West Ham +5 Stevo985 Arsenal 0 : 4 Newcastle +0 Crystal Palace 6 : 0 Man City +0 Fulham 2 : 0 Hull +2 Liverpool 1 : 0 Chelsea +0 Lampard will miss a penalty -1 Man Utd 0 : 5 Norwich +0 Southampton 1 : 1 Everton +0 Stoke 1 : 1 Tottenham +2 Sunderland 3 : 3 Cardiff +0 Swansea 2 : 1 Aston Villa +7 Aston Villa will have a player sent off -1 West Brom 1 : 4 West Ham +2 deepdish Arsenal 2 : 1 Newcastle +5 Crystal Palace 1 : 3 Man City +5 Fulham 0 : 2 Hull +2 Liverpool 3 : 1 Chelsea +0 Man Utd 4 : 0 Norwich +10 Southampton 2 : 2 Everton +2 Stoke 0 : 2 Tottenham +7 Sunderland 2 : 0 Cardiff +7 Swansea 0 : 2 Aston Villa +0 Vlaar will score one goal -1 West Brom 1 : 2 West Ham +2 kurtsimonw Arsenal 2 : 0 Newcastle +7 Crystal Palace 1 : 3 Man City +5 Fulham 1 : 0 Hull +0 Liverpool 1 : 1 Chelsea +0 Man Utd 3 : 0 Norwich +7 Southampton 1 : 2 Everton +0 Stoke 1 : 2 Tottenham +5 Sunderland 2 : 1 Cardiff +5 Swansea 1 : 1 Aston Villa +2 Swansea to have at least +10% in possession -1 West Brom 1 : 1 West Ham +2 StephanAVFC Arsenal 5 : 0 Newcastle +7 Crystal Palace 1 : 4 Man City +5 Fulham 0 : 0 Hull +5 Liverpool 2 : 1 Chelsea +0 Suarez will score -1 Man Utd 3 : 0 Norwich +7 Southampton 2 : 0 Everton +10 Stoke 1 : 1 Tottenham +2 Sunderland 1 : 1 Cardiff +0 Swansea 2 : 2 Aston Villa +0 Robinson to play more than 10 minutes +7 West Brom 0 : 2 West Ham +0 leviramsey Arsenal 2 : 0 Newcastle +7 Crystal Palace 0 : 2 Man City +10 Fulham 1 : 1 Hull +5 Liverpool 1 : 1 Chelsea +0 Man Utd 2 : 0 Norwich +7 Southampton 0 : 1 Everton +0 Stoke 1 : 1 Tottenham +2 Sunderland 1 : 0 Cardiff +7 Swansea 1 : 0 Aston Villa +5 West Brom 1 : 1 West Ham +2 Av1 Arsenal 2 : 0 Newcastle +7 Crystal Palace 0 : 2 Man City +10 Fulham 2 : 2 Hull +10 Liverpool 2 : 1 Chelsea +0 Man Utd 2 : 0 Norwich +7 Southampton 1 : 2 Everton +0 Stoke 1 : 1 Tottenham +2 Sunderland 2 : 0 Cardiff +7 Swansea 1 : 2 Aston Villa +0 West Brom 1 : 2 West Ham +2 Con is a clearing in the woods Arsenal 4 : 0 Newcastle +7 Crystal Palace 0 : 4 Man City +7 Fulham 2 : 0 Hull +2 Liverpool 2 : 0 Chelsea +0 Man Utd 3 : 0 Norwich +7 Southampton 1 : 3 Everton +0 Stoke 2 : 0 Tottenham +0 Sunderland 0 : 0 Cardiff +2 Swansea 1 : 1 Aston Villa +2 West Brom 1 : 1 West Ham +2 dodgyknees Arsenal 3 : 0 Newcastle +10 Crystal Palace 1 : 2 Man City +7 Fulham 2 : 1 Hull +2 Liverpool 1 : 1 Chelsea +0 Mourinho will blame the ref for something in the post match interview -1 Man Utd 2 : 0 Norwich +7 Southampton 2 : 2 Everton +2 Stoke 1 : 0 Tottenham +0 Sunderland 2 : 2 Cardiff +0 Swansea 1 : 1 Aston Villa +2 Villa will have less than 25% possession -1 West Brom 3 : 1 West Ham +5 Mic09 Arsenal 3 : 0 Newcastle +10 Crystal Palace 1 : 4 Man City +5 Fulham 1 : 2 Hull +2 Liverpool 1 : 2 Chelsea +7 Sterling scores -1 Man Utd 3 : 1 Norwich +5 Southampton 1 : 4 Everton +0 Stoke 2 : 2 Tottenham +0 Sunderland 2 : 2 Cardiff +0 Swansea 2 : 1 Aston Villa +7 Bony to score at least 1 +5 West Brom 0 : 1 West Ham +0 PaulC Arsenal 3 : 0 Newcastle +10 Crystal Palace 2 : 1 Man City +0 Fulham 2 : 0 Hull +2 Liverpool 3 : 0 Chelsea +0 Suarez to score -1 Man Utd 3 : 0 Norwich +7 Southampton 1 : 3 Everton +0 Stoke 1 : 1 Tottenham +2 Sunderland 2 : 1 Cardiff +0 Swansea 2 : 2 Aston Villa +0 Weimann to score -1 West Brom 2 : 0 West Ham +7 PieFacE Arsenal 0 : 3 Newcastle +0 Crystal Palace 3 : 0 Man City +0 Fulham 3 : 0 Hull +0 Liverpool 1 : 1 Chelsea +0 Man Utd 0 : 3 Norwich +0 Southampton 3 : 0 Everton +7 Stoke 3 : 0 Tottenham +0 Sunderland 3 : 0 Cardiff +7 Swansea 10 : 1 Aston Villa +7 West Brom 3 : 0 West Ham +7 Leaderboard 45 - leviramsey 45 - AV1 42 - StephanAVFC 40 - Mic09 39 - deepdish 35 - Con 33 - dodgyknees 32 - kurtsimonw 29 - Con is a clearing in the woods (Random Con hater) 28 - PieFacE 26 - PaulC 14 - Steve985 (Con's nemesis) Considering these rules to create a current prediction skill rating. Weekly totals have 0.9 base multiplier. So I take your score and multiply by 0.9. E.g. Con 35 * 0.9 = 31.5 Exceed X points in a week (35 points?) this adds 0.01 to the base multiplier for next week (and subsequent weeks, until any other change). Less than X points in a week (25 points?) this subtracts 0.01 from the base multiplier for next week (and subsequent weeks, until any other change). The idea is that overtime those that are consistently good will have their points skewed higher, and those who are consistently bad will have their points skewed lower, making the skill difference between people more obvious. Prediction skill leaderboard would be based on an average of your scores from all the weeks. So if I got 19 last week and 31.5 this week my current skill rating is 25.25. Edited April 28, 2014 by Con Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulC Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 Entry C was me Con, sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo985 Posted April 28, 2014 VT Supporter Share Posted April 28, 2014 Not a good week for the Anti-Con 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PieFacE Posted April 28, 2014 VT Supporter Share Posted April 28, 2014 Entry D was me. Whoops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leviramsey Posted April 29, 2014 VT Supporter Share Posted April 29, 2014 Why not measure consistency by subtracting the standard deviation from the mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AVFCforever1991 Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 Prediction Contest Results Scoring rules: correct score + result = 10 pts, correct result + half-correct score = 7 pts, correct result = 5 pts, half-correct score = 2 pts. Actual Results Arsenal 3 : 0 Newcastle Crystal Palace 0 : 2 Man City Fulham 2 : 2 Hull Liverpool 0 : 2 Chelsea Man Utd 4 : 0 Norwich Southampton 2 : 0 Everton Stoke 0 : 1 Tottenham Sunderland 4 : 0 Cardiff Swansea 4 : 1 Aston Villa West Brom 1 : 0 West Ham Con Arsenal 4 : 0 Newcastle +7 Crystal Palace 0 : 6 Man City +7 Fulham 0 : 2 Hull +2 Liverpool 0 : 1 Chelsea +7 Gerrard will miss a penalty -1 Man Utd 5 : 0 Norwich +7 Southampton 1 : 1 Everton +0 Stoke 1 : 1 Tottenham +2 Sunderland 3 : 3 Cardiff +0 Swansea 1 : 2 Aston Villa +0 Swansea will have a player sent off -1 West Brom 4 : 1 West Ham +5 Stevo985 Arsenal 0 : 4 Newcastle +0 Crystal Palace 6 : 0 Man City +0 Fulham 2 : 0 Hull +2 Liverpool 1 : 0 Chelsea +0 Lampard will miss a penalty -1 Man Utd 0 : 5 Norwich +0 Southampton 1 : 1 Everton +0 Stoke 1 : 1 Tottenham +2 Sunderland 3 : 3 Cardiff +0 Swansea 2 : 1 Aston Villa +7 Aston Villa will have a player sent off -1 West Brom 1 : 4 West Ham +2 deepdish Arsenal 2 : 1 Newcastle +5 Crystal Palace 1 : 3 Man City +5 Fulham 0 : 2 Hull +2 Liverpool 3 : 1 Chelsea +0 Man Utd 4 : 0 Norwich +10 Southampton 2 : 2 Everton +2 Stoke 0 : 2 Tottenham +7 Sunderland 2 : 0 Cardiff +7 Swansea 0 : 2 Aston Villa +0 Vlaar will score one goal -1 West Brom 1 : 2 West Ham +2 kurtsimonw Arsenal 2 : 0 Newcastle +7 Crystal Palace 1 : 3 Man City +5 Fulham 1 : 0 Hull +0 Liverpool 1 : 1 Chelsea +0 Man Utd 3 : 0 Norwich +7 Southampton 1 : 2 Everton +0 Stoke 1 : 2 Tottenham +5 Sunderland 2 : 1 Cardiff +5 Swansea 1 : 1 Aston Villa +2 Swansea to have at least +10% in possession -1 West Brom 1 : 1 West Ham +2 StephanAVFC Arsenal 5 : 0 Newcastle +7 Crystal Palace 1 : 4 Man City +5 Fulham 0 : 0 Hull +5 Liverpool 2 : 1 Chelsea +0 Suarez will score -1 Man Utd 3 : 0 Norwich +7 Southampton 2 : 0 Everton +10 Stoke 1 : 1 Tottenham +2 Sunderland 1 : 1 Cardiff +0 Swansea 2 : 2 Aston Villa +0 Robinson to play more than 10 minutes +7 West Brom 0 : 2 West Ham +0 leviramsey Arsenal 2 : 0 Newcastle +7 Crystal Palace 0 : 2 Man City +10 Fulham 1 : 1 Hull +5 Liverpool 1 : 1 Chelsea +0 Man Utd 2 : 0 Norwich +7 Southampton 0 : 1 Everton +0 Stoke 1 : 1 Tottenham +2 Sunderland 1 : 0 Cardiff +7 Swansea 1 : 0 Aston Villa +5 West Brom 1 : 1 West Ham +2 Av1 Arsenal 2 : 0 Newcastle +7 Crystal Palace 0 : 2 Man City +10 Fulham 2 : 2 Hull +10 Liverpool 2 : 1 Chelsea +0 Man Utd 2 : 0 Norwich +7 Southampton 1 : 2 Everton +0 Stoke 1 : 1 Tottenham +2 Sunderland 2 : 0 Cardiff +7 Swansea 1 : 2 Aston Villa +0 West Brom 1 : 2 West Ham +2 Con is a clearing in the woods Arsenal 4 : 0 Newcastle +7 Crystal Palace 0 : 4 Man City +7 Fulham 2 : 0 Hull +2 Liverpool 2 : 0 Chelsea +0 Man Utd 3 : 0 Norwich +7 Southampton 1 : 3 Everton +0 Stoke 2 : 0 Tottenham +0 Sunderland 0 : 0 Cardiff +2 Swansea 1 : 1 Aston Villa +2 West Brom 1 : 1 West Ham +2 dodgyknees Arsenal 3 : 0 Newcastle +10 Crystal Palace 1 : 2 Man City +7 Fulham 2 : 1 Hull +2 Liverpool 1 : 1 Chelsea +0 Mourinho will blame the ref for something in the post match interview -1 Man Utd 2 : 0 Norwich +7 Southampton 2 : 2 Everton +2 Stoke 1 : 0 Tottenham +0 Sunderland 2 : 2 Cardiff +0 Swansea 1 : 1 Aston Villa +2 Villa will have less than 25% possession -1 West Brom 3 : 1 West Ham +5 Mic09 Arsenal 3 : 0 Newcastle +10 Crystal Palace 1 : 4 Man City +5 Fulham 1 : 2 Hull +2 Liverpool 1 : 2 Chelsea +7 Sterling scores -1 Man Utd 3 : 1 Norwich +5 Southampton 1 : 4 Everton +0 Stoke 2 : 2 Tottenham +0 Sunderland 2 : 2 Cardiff +0 Swansea 2 : 1 Aston Villa +7 Bony to score at least 1 +5 West Brom 0 : 1 West Ham +0 PaulC Arsenal 3 : 0 Newcastle +10 Crystal Palace 2 : 1 Man City +0 Fulham 2 : 0 Hull +2 Liverpool 3 : 0 Chelsea +0 Suarez to score -1 Man Utd 3 : 0 Norwich +7 Southampton 1 : 3 Everton +0 Stoke 1 : 1 Tottenham +2 Sunderland 2 : 1 Cardiff +0 Swansea 2 : 2 Aston Villa +0 Weimann to score -1 West Brom 2 : 0 West Ham +7 PieFacE Arsenal 0 : 3 Newcastle +0 Crystal Palace 3 : 0 Man City +0 Fulham 3 : 0 Hull +0 Liverpool 1 : 1 Chelsea +0 Man Utd 0 : 3 Norwich +0 Southampton 3 : 0 Everton +7 Stoke 3 : 0 Tottenham +0 Sunderland 3 : 0 Cardiff +7 Swansea 10 : 1 Aston Villa +7 West Brom 3 : 0 West Ham +7 Leaderboard 45 - leviramsey 45 - AV1 42 - StephanAVFC 40 - Mic09 39 - deepdish 35 - Con 33 - dodgyknees 32 - kurtsimonw 29 - Con is a clearing in the woods (Random Con hater) 28 - PieFacE 26 - PaulC 14 - Steve985 (Con's nemesis) Considering these rules to create a current prediction skill rating. Weekly totals have 0.9 base multiplier. So I take your score and multiply by 0.9. E.g. Con 35 * 0.9 = 31.5 Exceed X points in a week (35 points?) this adds 0.01 to the base multiplier for next week (and subsequent weeks, until any other change). Less than X points in a week (25 points?) this subtracts 0.01 from the base multiplier for next week (and subsequent weeks, until any other change). The idea is that overtime those that are consistently good will have their points skewed higher, and those who are consistently bad will have their points skewed lower, making the skill difference between people more obvious. Prediction skill leaderboard would be based on an average of your scores from all the weeks. So if I got 19 last week and 31.5 this week my current skill rating is 25.25. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PieFacE Posted April 29, 2014 VT Supporter Share Posted April 29, 2014 Con are you not going to add up the totals from one week to the next week so we can have a league running throughout the season? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Con Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 Con are you not going to add up the totals from one week to the next week so we can have a league running throughout the season? Problem with that is people can't join in after week 1. If you have a ranking based on consistency, you can be in the game after just a few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Con Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 Why not measure consistency by subtracting the standard deviation from the mean? Okay, I'll give that way a try. Believe it or not - you probably will believe it - I'm not a great statistician. That should solve the problem of weeks when there are postponed matches, meaning I would have to keep adjusting the upper and lower thresholds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ED Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 Not a good week for the Anti-Con Minor quibble, but isn't the opposite of Gerrard missing a penalty,Gerrard scoring a penalty? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Con Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 Actually, the problem of postponed matches is not solved if the mean used is weekly scores. you could keep your mean score and consistency higher just by strategically missing a week when there are postponed matches. I could perhaps substitute in non-Premier League matches so there are always 10 predictions per week. Not a good week for the Anti-Con Minor quibble, but isn't the opposite of Gerrard missing a penalty,Gerrard scoring a penalty? That's a 90 degree rotation! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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