Rightdm00

7 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

Isn't it the opposite? A game where we have most of the ball, and our quarterback is Nakamba struggling to pass the ball accurately 12 yards?

Yeah this is a game where we need a someone who can play a line splitting pass.  Nakamba will handle the defensive requirements fine, but Douglas will surely be missed when we are in possession. 

5 minutes ago, villalad21 said:

Because i've seen Conor put in similar performances and fans go after him.

Conor is ten years older probably making 10 times what Ramsey is currently earning. It's not an apples to apples comparison. 

20 hours ago, villalad21 said:

Dean Smith has always been a "you score 3 we score 4 type of manager"

When you play that high line and bombing players forward you need a general at a back. A Van Dijk. Someone who reads the game well and anticipate danger.

We don't have that. Playing this way, unless you have world class players all over the pitch you will lose more than you'll win. We have a really decent team but Smith needs to adapt and tweak his system, it's what the best coaches do.

 

Yet just a couple days ago you were singing the praises of Hasenhuttl. Southampton play a very high defensive line and employ an aggressive press.

How many world class players do southampton have on the pitch?  Hasenhuttl's team concede a goal like the Welbeck one vs us almost weekly. They let Son score 4 similar versions in one game. Please don't take this as a rant against Hasnehuttl, I really enjoy his in your face/agressive style of play. Just would some consistency with how you breakdown managerial game styles. 

3 minutes ago, Keyblade said:

The 4th official said negro by the way.

His excuse is that it's how he says it in Romanian, which I guess might track as the referee is Romanian too.

Yeah, definitely one of those things you have to avoid. Especially if their is a language barrier involved. 

1 minute ago, Sam-AVFC said:

It's definitely offensive. People seem to forget that these people are at work. Would you not be shocked if your boss lazily referred to an employee as 'black guy'?

I go back and forth with it. Identifying someone by their race is not something you immediately take offence to. You need a little more context. 

If someone called me african american or black Im not going to immediately take offence. Call me colored or Negro, that's a different story.  Maybe Demba Ba has a history with that referee crew?

2 minutes ago, villa4europe said:

Player on the bench shown a yellow

"who's that for?" 

"the black guy" 

Not sure how it's a misunderstanding 

Poor choice of words. I hesitate to go as far as to call it offensive. 

Not to take away from the amazing Mckennie goal but that defending by Barcelona was absolutely criminal. There were two Juve players unmarked inside the 6. 

Barcelona should do the right thing and let Messi leave.   

6 hours ago, villalad21 said:

I would take Ralph at Villa. 100 %

Really, really like him.

Well that's the kiss of death right there. 

Watching Mendy on Leicester. He was bought as a Kante replacement and looked awful his first year in the Prem.  Looks pretty good now. Hopefully Nakamba can follow the same developmental path. 

5 minutes ago, PaulC said:

Its good that he can still do that at his age

Having had two knee surgeries in my early 30s I'm extremely jealous everytime I see Bielsa squat without immediately tipping over. 

West Ham is playing a high line and not pressing in the middle very well. That is a recipe for diaster against a team with pace out wide and and guy like Bruno in the middle. 

1 minute ago, BleedClaretAndBlue said:

Funny how we controlled WH with ease and Utd are getting dominated by them

West Ham have already doubled their shot total from their game against us in 1 half versus United. 

They should be 3 up but Haller is awful. 

OMG...Haller

Manchester look completely toothless without Bruno. 

Not judging but just curious that Pep hasn't made a single sub. 

13 minutes ago, KentVillan said:

The thing with pens is they aren't a pure test of ability. They're mental as well. Milner, Denis Irwin, Barry, etc. just had something about them that made them great penalty takers. Hard to put a finger on it. Jedinak was another one, of course.

Greatest of all time - Glenn Whelan. Rescued this club. What a man.

It was so comical at the time. Couldn't believe my eyes when he put the ball on the spot. 

25 minutes ago, Laughable Chimp said:

i think he's tackling and interception stats are bad because he's just bad at defending. I don't see how you can be in the right place and body players off the ball yet not have it reflect in your tackling and interception statistics. I've certainly rarely noticed him bodying players off the ball as you've said. 

I really don't see him as a DM at all. He's just not that kind of player. 

 

 

Who said his tackling and interceptions stats were poor. He's 2nd on the team in interceptions and 4th in tackles. 

As others have mentioned if he isn't a good DM then why are we worried about ManC activating the buy back. I swear I can never get a handle on this thread. 

Just now, TRO said:

watching the game beats the lot....not trying to be smug...

"There are lies, damn lies and statistics"

they have some place....but to use them wholey and soley to prove every argument on a colplex game is folly.

Fully agree. I use xG as a way to push through any bias I may have.

For example, I'm a huge Dean Smith fan. Love the guy 100%, so I know my bias can creep into any post game breakdown. Since xG and other valid metrics are designed to be impartial it allows me counteract any bias I may try to introduce. 

4 hours ago, Stevo985 said:

Quite literally the last name on the teamsheet for me.

He has to start at the moment, but only because we have nobody better (unless Traore progresses).

 

If we're going to do any business in January, this is where we should be aiming

Trez, targett, and a bench CM are the glaring holes in our team right now. Hopefully we can address at least one of them this winter. 

4 hours ago, Enda said:

Good post.

One thing that annoys me about xG though is it only counts actual shots. So take Ollie’s offside goal at the end of the match for example. IIRC that will add zero to xG because it was offside so there no “shot” recorded. Same thing with a good whipped ball across the six-yard box that nobody gets a toe on. No shot, so nothing to expected goals.

Or at least that’s how it was explained to me. If it’s true, then expected goals is a “quality adjusted shots on target” measure, not an actual measure of expected goals. And that annoys me.

It's definitely not a foolproof stat. The fact that it doesn't capture chances that generate a shot is a big hole. Not sure how you could integrate chances like you mentioned so it's important to only use it as part of your metric when gauging our performance. 

I don't see the need to beef up the midfield by bringing in a greater physical presence.  Luiz is absolutely fine as our DM. He is the key to triggering many of our attacks from deep within our half.  Very rarely have I ever seen him lose a physical battle. His heading is a weakness but most Prem teams keep the ball on the deck so it's not a huge worry. 

Another great thing about Douglas is his lack of yellows. He is 2nd in interceptions and 4th in tackles yet only has 2 yellows in 9 games played. 

Our defensive weakness is definitely out wide.  Almost every goal we concede comes from attacks from the flanks. Our FBs are both on the field to mainly generate attacking moves and it shows when it comes to their defending. 

Targett is who he is. Physically he is lacking and eventually I hope we find some one better. You can tell Cash has the physical tools but lacks the know how. Hopefully that knowledge comes with more time spent playing the position. 

26 minutes ago, tezzaleed said:

I agree with that but I accept until wes is back we have no other option and will wes ever recover.   As for watkkns being miles ahead of wes I disagree.  watkins has shown flashes of what he can be but never convinces in front of goal and has missed as many as wes for me.   wes however flattered to deceive a lot of his villa career as well but the way he played in that last game before Ben mee did him was awesome.  on a level with carew and still so young.  his potential is or was awesome.  we may never see that now but I'm still hoping he'll come back push on and become a villa legend.

Watkins is already at 6 goals in 9 Prem games. Wes scored 5 in 21.   Not trying to slander Wes, he can still do a job for us but the difference in class is obvious.  Watkins is by far the better striker.  

Not going to happen but if you project out Watkins is on pace for 24 goals.  I honestly only give him 2-3 seasons before he gets snapped up for an obscene offer.  He is by far the best striker the club has had since Benteke and give him season or two and he will leave him in the dust as well. 

3 hours ago, mikeyjavfc said:

Another interest stat here that confirms what most of us know:

Under ‘expected points’ (basically comparison of xG for and against per game) we should be sitting 4th in the league with a game in hand. Just shows we have been unlucky with our recent results. Hopefully we revert to the mean soon and convert our good xG to wins.

Last year we finished one point better than our expected points for the season.  So the methodology there is pretty spot on. 

Most teams finish within a place or two of their expected points.

Understat.com has a nice layout for looking at present and past historical tables.

Amusing side note, the one team that breaks the mold for expected points is Newcastle. Based on expected points they should have finished bottom last year but managed 13. This year they are 10th but expected points says they should be 18th.  Bruce ball, gotta love it. 

Bielsa a great manager. Not sure who is arguing against that. Also, he has hasn't completed a third season at a club team in 25 years. Not really a manager for the long haul. Leed's issue start the day he quits. They'll be fine til then.