Peter Griffin

No, if you reads back on the thread the topic was comparing Moyes progress at West Ham to Smith's progress at Villa. I posted a comment to show that there was only 1 point between Villa and Hammers on the day Moyes took over at Hammers and the teams were 17th and 18th in the league. I was showing that Moyes has improved West Ham more than Smith has improved Villa in the same period. That is comparing the two managers and their progress. It is a way of comparing Smith's effectiveness by comparing him to a peer

No, not sure about it, just checked and it was the home game not the away game. I had Googled Villa v West Ham and not West Ham v Villa. But it was still in the same season. Interesting if is has changed to 8 players from the game at their place. The game I quoted was in Sept so pre Moyes and the game art the end of the season was with Moyes

What players did we need fit to play 433 against Wolves?

Only 3 players that started agains us in the 2019 season for West Ham started for Hammers against Everton in the most recent PL game. Both teams have changed significantly since 2019/20

West Ham qualified for Europa finishing 6th and 10 points ahead of us. Their improvement has been better than ours

And arguably every one of our players turned out better than Haller did

At the time Moyes took over Hammers most people in the media and on Villa forums thought the last relegation spot that year was between Hammers and Villa. It was often said that our visit to them on the final day would be to see which team went down

So our team was under performing in relation to the players we had?

I was going to say those two have improved too but being devil's advocate. The have changed from 20 and 21 years old when they joined us. Is their improvement significantly greater than the normal expected improvement in a professional football player with potential at that age? I think Konsa has probably improved very well, I am not so sure about Dougie

But surely that was taking into account that we were in a transition phase and had just spent 144m on about 14 players so it could be argued that Villa too were under performing for the players we had in the squad

The annoying thing about West Ham is that we were competing with West Ham for relegation in our first season up. Since then they have moved forward more than we have. Moyes only joined them on Dec 30th 2019. On that day West Ham were in 17th place on 19 points and Villa were in 18th place on 18 points albeit Hammers had a game in hand. Since the he has spent about 120m while we have spent about 185m. Hammers appear to have improved more than we have and that is not nice to see.

If that is the case then, for me, he is not the right man to be leading AVFC. I do not want and I doubt Purslow or NSWE want a Head Coach / Manager that does not get the players he has over performing. I think Deano over performed in his 1st season at Villa. In the 2nd season he did a decent job in that we stayed up but it was by the skin of our teeth and it was the only actual transition year we have had in a long time so he had a good excuse. Last season he over performed for half the season and under performed for half the season. Net result was finishing in an expect position. The half season of under performance is not really acceptable and should not have happened. This season at Deano needs to have Villa finishing in the too 10.

I agree, I don't think we will do that, we have a chance but it is not my expectation. I expect 8th or 9th

I don't either, that's why I have said I don't expect us to qualify for Europa. However, I do expect us to compete for a top 7 spot and to get beaten to it. There is also an outside chance we may have a fortunate run and one of the other teams has a dip and we could get it. But the 3 points thrown away at the weekend could prove very costly if we are to have an outside chance

I agree that it would be really good to have 5 academy players as part of the 1st team at the start of next season, that would be a huge success. But we need to rid ourselves of this 'in transition' phrase. It is becoming an excuse. When was the last season we were not in transition? Every transfer window the team changes and we need to adapt and constantly evolve. Our 1st season up in the PL was a genuine transition year but after that I think it is just an excuse

We are definitely in with a shout of Europa qualification, there is still 90 points available.

You may be better not watching it so

It is really important that we get some decent points in the next couple of months, if we don't we could find ourselves looking over our shoulder at a relegation battle and that would put extra pressure on the team and would likely change how we approach games. We cannot afford to get pulled into a survival dogfight for the 2nd have of the season.

I don't expect us to qualify for Europe this season unless maybe we win the FA cup but I fully expect that we will compete for a Europa spot and by that I mean that we compete to finish 7th. We should be in the mix for this next April and I think we should be finishing 8th/9th. Anything less than that and we will have underachieved imo

I agree, but I think the situation that Newcastle are in means they are going to have to 'buy' a new manager. No big time manager would want the job now so to attract a big name they will have to give a huge salary and promise big transfer funds. If it is a short term manager e.g. Dyche, he and his agent will know that it is a short term appointment and at most he would have the rest of this season and next season. So he will want a very big salary and a lengthy salary to ensure his pay off is worth taking the job. Toon job will be one of the hardest in football to get the right person in. If they were in midtable with a half decent squad they could attract nearly anyone but they are in a real mess

I am sure a 5m a year and a 10m bonus for keeping them in the PL would help him to risk his career. Even after a disaster at Newcastle I suspect there would be newly promoted PL sides that would jump at the chance to get Dyche in to try and stay up

Well, the bar is fairly low at Newcastle. He could sign Davis from us as an upgrade on Joelinton. Seriously thought, I am sure he could pick up a couple of players that would play to his formation and pressing style for 25m/30m each that would improve Toon.I wouldn't rule out Kalvin Philips joining him at Newcastle if Bielsa went there. He would be a shrewd big money purchase

Perfect. Drop Wilson and squeeze another DM into the centre

I think Bielsa would be a good fit for Toon. The fans would love his football and he plays the type of football to get them out of a relegation battle. He would try and win every game and yes he would lose a lot but he would also win a quite a few. He would have 52k people cheering every touch of the ball and he would probably add a few good players in Jan. Southgate would bore the 52k crowd into depression with negative football trying not to lose games. He would have 5 at the back and 2 DMs and try and shut up shop and avoid losing games. it would be a slow and painful relegation.

It is good to see people posting sensible posts and putting some effort into them, they make for better reading. I agree with a lot of what you have written but not everything. As regards NSWE and their view on progress, they are without question happy. As you say, promotion and survival followed by consolidation. AVFC is obviously worth a lot more than when they purchased it so they are seeing a return on their investment. As regards their expectations, We may not know the finer detail but it is clear that they want Europe and not just Europa, they want Champions League. I would also believe they want continuous improvement each year. I don't believe they will be happy with another 11th place finish this season. Mitigating factors may sound good but good management anticipates risk and should be able to overcome risks and not use mitigating factors as an excuse for non delivery. That may sound hard but that is the reality at a certain level in business. There are some things outside of our control e.g. Covid closing things down but a disrupted pre season is just an excuse. We should have had alternative games arranged or whatever is necessary to ensure we were ready to start the league on match day 1. Although Smith has delivered in years 1,2 and 3 they are now over and we are into year 4. Yes well done Deano and credit where credit is due but it is now a new season and he will be judged on this season and not past successes. I believe we need to be pushing for Europa this season (I think Ings signing shows this) and we currently do not look like we are. The soft underbelly and the inconsistency should be eliminated by year 4 and this is a poor reflection of Deano. He must fix this. I agree we should play 433 and u say that u believe it is his preferred system but we are 8 games in and persisting with 5 at the back. Furthermore, we are not adapting to the teams we are up against. I agree we should not be rigid with our formation but we are. We wouldn't play anything but 433 last season and this season we play 5 at the back against everyone. I think this is another poor reflection of Deano and something he must address. I also believe we have the squad today to be able to play 433 and that is taking injuries into account. This is a huge season for Deano personally. If it is successful I would expect he will be offered a nice new contract with a decent pay rise. If it is not successful I expect he will be given 10 to 15 games of next season to show improvement or he will be replaced. I like Deano, he is a very good fit for Villa and I would love to see him as our manager for the next 10 years. Will he be a success at Villa:? I really don't know. I am very nervous that he is starting to show signs that he may have reached his ceiling. So far this season we have had 1 good game against Chelsea and 20 minutes against Everton. The rest has been fairly forgettable and doesn't really show a team that is playing with a definite style of football and following a clear plan for breaking into the top half.