Great article on Opta, Man Utd with a 2.3% chance of Top 4 even with their easier run in.
https://theanalyst.com/eu/2024/03/premier-league-schedule-how-difficult-are-your-teams-final-10-games/
I agree, the only way I can reconcile it is trying to get someone settled e.g. Rogers because we know we will be selling someone e.g. Ramsey (purely an example)