A'Villan

Semantics antics.

24 minutes ago, TRO said:

Hence my concern, 2 essentially offensive minded players.

I guess, we will  just have to get by, until the summer.

I see both McGinn and Luiz as capable of winning the ball back of their own accord and abilities. That would only be enhanced by tactical development if they were assigned the roles. Could be wrong but I see that duo as doable in the holding roles. I think it may hamper McGinns optimal input given that he is better suited to central midfield and being a threat on the ball as well as winning it in threatening territory, but I think with some better discipline and decision making regards defensive duties, I see him being able to adapt and fulfil the role.

51 minutes ago, TRO said:

My concern is, with Digne and cash as attacking full backs, who's going to do the defending?

That line up is predominantly Offensive.

also, I think Ramsey is a permanent fixture now....He is arguably, one of our best players.

There's two holding midfielders to sit in  front of the last line and protect it. Whether you think McGinn and Luiz are up to the role is a different matter.

Certainly not Cambiasso and Motta, nor Xabi and Khedira.

For me they could play there though. 

Violent by design. 

They thought real hip hop was just an African American thing, and with commercial rappers like Eminem it's no wonder.

Negligence of the highest order. Boris Johnson would be proud. 

No football is when it tends to get the most cuckoo around these neck of the woods, here on VT.

I have to say it's all been a bit orderly and proper, there's even been a number of constructive and considered analysis of the team. We've got people aware of a moderation absence, and wondering when it will be back.

I'm used to off topic tirades and argumentative sling shots (I'm pointing the finger at those responsible here, and I just poked myself in the eye).

Spooky.

2 hours ago, cheltenham_villa said:

I think what impresses me most is that his focus on effort and competitiveness allows him to succeed below the top level. Many players of his talent wouldn't be able to play alongside or coach those who can't do the same things. I think his time in Scotland really helps in that respect. 

I think that's also his ability to understand what's necessary for success to occur, whether that's coming from three to nil down in a CL final to eventually win, or as a poor example, him seeing development occur in a player at a lower level that you mention, say they finally can grasp and execute on an aspect of the sport he's been teaching them.

He's got what's required because he's willing to invest the time, energy and thought to see what it's going to take, and then the determination to see it through.

I'd say that's almost definitely because he never lost touch with what got him from that kid in the park with a dream to the grown man, who made dreams come to be true. He would have learnt a lot about himself and people in that time.  

10 minutes ago, tomsky_11 said:

As a Magic fan, all too aware of the rise of the Bucks under Edens. Could do with similar in Orlando right now.

Shaq, Penny, Grant, Anderson and Scott. That should have been one of, if not the greatest dynasties. I'm an unstoppaBULLS fan because of that era.

All I have to add to the discussion currently is that Wes Edens will not be idle in ensuring that this club sees its potential realised. He will be an active leader throughout the campaign to see it done.

For Villans wanting to understand why I hold that view, they should read and watch up on Edens interviews but most importantly the rise of the Milwaukee Bucks from all time club low, as low as can go in the NBA, to eventual winners of the competitions pinnacle, the NBA finals.

I'll do my best to source some of it over the weekend and put it in the appropriate thread.

We have a team working on a common goal here, and that is to see how far we can go.

25 minutes ago, tomsky_11 said:

How realistic is it to hope for the kind of run of results that might get us into the European places? An interesting comparison might be the first 17 games of last season...

Fixture difficulty

Of last seasons opening 17 games, 8 were at home and 9 away. The average position in the final table of the teams played was 10.71 overall, 13.25 at home and 8.44 away. We played all of the eventual top 6, with 5 of these games away from home.

Our remaining fixtures this season compare favourably, with 9 at home and 8 away, while the average current ppg table position of our opponents is 11.41 (0.7 better), 11.89 at home and 10.88 away. We play 4 of the current ppg top 6, with 3 of these games at home.

Weighting the home fixtures by 50%, this seasons fixtures still come out favourable, probably due to the additional home game this season offsetting the easier home fixtures last season.

Players used/available

The average starting lineup for the opening 17 games of last season was:

Martinez (17 starts); Cash (16), Targett (17), Konsa (14), Mings (16); Luiz (16), McGinn (16), Barkley (8); Traore (9), Grealish (17), Watkins (17)

7 of 11 players in the side above are in our current available strongest XI. I would argue that overall the four changed positions have seen an improvement overall:

LB - Digne for Targett - should provide at least as much defensive input but with much improved offensive contribution.

MC - Ramsey for Barkley - pre-injury Barkley's contribution was pretty good but then Ramsey has in my opinion looked as least as good in recent games. Barkley only had 8 starts and was most commonly replaced by El Ghazi, with Grealish moving central. This season we have a more direct and improved replacement available in Sanson. Overall this looks like an improvement to me.

AMR - Buendia for Traore - on the face of it a definite improvement, although Traore's 4 goals and 2 assists with only 9 starts in last season's first 17 can't be knocked. Buendia has 2 goals and 3 assists in 15 starts so far this season. Even still I think it's hard to argue that this isn't an improvement given Buendia's improved form and more allround contribution to the team. Last season's AMR starts were split almost equally between Traore and Trezuguet, while this season Traore's still here as back up, and could even end up third choice for this spot given Bailey's imminent return.

AML - Coutinho for Grealish - difficult to judge this one I think. Grealish probably at his peak the first half of last season, with 5 goals and 8 assists in the opening 17 games. That kind of G&A contribution is the kind that Coutinho has achieved on multiple occassions at this level, but not for a few seasons, if only for lack of opportunity. Early signs look positive though and there's still every chance Countinho could have as much impact as peak Grealish last season.

Overall it's seems to me impossible to argue we aren't a better team player-for-player than in the first 17 games of last season. We've definitely improved in at least two of the four changed positions, and could possibly have improved in all four, which is quite something given that one of these players was the standout of those first 17 games. Furthermore, we seem to have much more quality in reserve than last season so are better covered in most areas. We were lucky enough for the most part to not require it in last season's games, with 8 players missing no more than 1 of the 17 and similar luck with availability would certainly help this season. But this greater squad depth should hopefully mean we are less affected by any issues we do have.

Management

It's still early in Gerrard's tenure but signs so far are pretty promising in comparison to Smith last season. Gerrard has clearly made changes that should make us harder to beat, with a much more compact defensive shape than we'd have seen last season. I'd argue we also look potentially more balanced going forward than last season given our overreliance then on forcing the ball left through Grealish. At the moment it's hard to see any downsides to our play under Gerrard when compared to last season, while there are definitely some upsides.

Results

So what did we achieve in the opening 17 games of last season? And how close to Europe would a similar run get us in the remainder of this season?

9 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats, 31 scored and 18 conceded. 29 points. The same run to the end of this season would see us reach 55 points. This was the same points total as last season which saw us finish 11th, though this season would more likely see us gain a place or two.

Still not enough for Europe then, which would probably require at least 60 points. But turn a defeat and a draw into wins and we're there. Not big margins. Think the West Ham away and Burnley home games last season that we utterly domitated and really should have won. With an improved side, potentially more favourable fixture list and arguably better management a late push for Europe doesn't seem to me to be too far fetched just yet.

Thanks for the write up. Not everyone will agree with the content but it's most definitely food for thought and furthers the discussion. Great work.

The team still needs some time and work to be at full throttle, and there are no easy fixtures. One of the many great aspects of having a player like Grealish was that opposition could watch tape and formulate tactics all season, but you still couldn't stop him at Villa. We've got every chance of success with the guys we've recruited but we need them to find and establish themselves here as Grealish did over the years, and it did take years.

Thankfully Buendia and Coutinho are more mature and experienced but that will only mean they know themselves, integrating into a cohesive whole is different. Do that though and we will challenge European placing. Even if we fall short we will be in the conversation. 

We could go on a run over our next five fixtures, we are looking to win all our games, I'm sure, but with that run I'd go as far to say we are counting on at least double digits points return given our opponents in each.

You never know, we are within reach of Spurs and the Gunners.

Get Clement Grenier signed while he's on a free. Criminal this guy is without a club.

He's certainly a level above whatever league he's coming from but it's crossed my mind every time I watch his reels if the PL will still have him look as good. He's got a bit of flair about him though as well as defending.

@Thug I rate Sanson very highly. Hope you are right about who ends up being better in the PL.

However Sanson has work to do just for a starting role. Bissouma is on a few radars because he's already Brighton's best.

Looking forward to seeing him play again.

Why must we have faith?

Have faith in yourself, always. Even when you cannot have it in others, the system, whatever. You must have it within yourself, otherwise the system, or other people have ultimately done what we feared might come to be true. That we become like them. You must have faith. You will find a way. Sweet dreams. Keep dreaming. Goodnight. 

5 minutes ago, sidcow said:

I think fear of death is quite healthy.  It's what stops people jumping off cliffs, sticking their fingers in electric sockets etc. 

Also, then what does cause people to jump off cliffs, throw a toaster in the bath etc.?

2 minutes ago, sidcow said:

I think fear of death is quite healthy.  It's what stops people jumping off cliffs, sticking their fingers in electric sockets etc. 

I'm not suggesting we welcome it and invite it. I would however suggest it's what motivates kill or be killed. And that, is inviting death.

37 minutes ago, Mandy Lifeboats said:

Before I was conceived the molecules that made me were already in existence.  They were parts of other things.  

 

I wonder, is this in relation to 'I' the universe, or 'I' @Mandy Lifeboats

12 minutes ago, Mandy Lifeboats said:

Before I was conceived the molecules that made me were already in existence.  They were parts of other things.  

When I was conceived I began collecting molecules.  I am still collecting them today.  I have quite a collection. Although I wouldn't mind losing about 14lbs of them that are around my middle. 

When I die my collection of molecules will split up and make up new things.  

 

Settle down,  Sunshine. You've pierced me to the core. 

1 minute ago, TRO said:

I just don't see it often enough, to be taken by it.

He made a good challenge recently at home and I got out of my seat to applaud.....It doesn't happen enough, is my beef.

In the main, he "floats" through games....a word used by a local journalist, which I thought was apt.

His passing ability holds no bounds, but its not that, some of us are concerned about.....How often does he trail a threat or Danger, like Fernandes Goal against us....it happens too often....I see him often in the wake of a dangerous run, from an opponent.

I am not saying get rid, too good for that.....I am saying move further up and let a player take over who goes after the ball and wins it....sure we want someone who can pass too....its not beyond the realms of probablity, to expect both.

Feeling that. You've given me some insight I didn't have there. Admittedly while I watch 24 minutes of highlights for every game at a minimum, I have not watched even half of our games this season for the full 90 minutes as I had for so long up until this season.

3 minutes ago, TRO said:

If he challengesand goes after the ball....the chances are, he is.

Not feeling this one. Dougie harrying opponents is something I love to see, even though he's not honed it enough to be adept at it.

Just now, Mandy Lifeboats said:

I have experienced not being alive.  I wasn't alive for millions of years.  It just flew by.  

 

I don't feel there's much I can say to that. It strikes me as very clever though. 

Just now, gwi1890 said:

All thats been reported is sexual assault, that happened in a public place (the night club) this scales from pinching a bottom to rape, pointless making assumptions. 

Agree on that. I'm just saying if it is rape the mentioned four months could go on for a while yet.