Mandy Lifeboats

Russia is losing a lot of generals.  Or are they?  Have some of these Generals actually defected to the West?  Are they divulging plans, supply routes and weaknesses.

It would explain the high loss rate and the amazing success of the Ukraine Army. 

Before Gulf War 2, the USA is rumoured to have phoned most of the senior Iraqi military leadership and offered individual surrender terms.  It’s certainly feasible that they have done the same for Ukraine.  

Russia made 2 mistakes. 

1. Assuming the population of Ukraine would welcome (or at least tolerate) them.  

2. Attempting to minimise damage to infrastructure and civilians.  

I can imagine that anyone reading point 2 above us hoping to reply with mentions of bombed hospitals etc.  That's what they have resorted to AFTER their initial plan A failed.  

I honestly believe that Russia's plan was thus -

1. Roll into Ukraine mainly unopposed in East Ukraine. 

2. Halt short of Kiev. 

3. Agree to withdraw but keep the  Crimea and Eastern borders towns of Ukraine. 

4. Insist Ukraine becomes a demilitarised zone with Russian "Peace keepers".  

I still believe that Russia will win this "war".  But the cost of doing so will make this a Pyrrhic victory. 

When talking about Russia's capacity you can't include anywhere near their total strength. NATO is building up forces on the eastern borders.  These will necessitate Russia to mirror those forces with similar forces.  You can bet that NATO are keeping those Russian airforce busy with flights close to the Russian border.  All of these need to be met by Russian fighters showing strength.  With Canada to the North, Europe to the West, USA to the East and USA based in Asia to the South, Russia is surrounded by NATO. 

Russia's airforce is vastly outnumbered and outgunned by NATO even if Russia can operate every single one of their planes.  There is no way that Russia can commit vast numbers of planes in Ukraine.  Their paranoia tells them that those planes will be need to beat off a  NATO strike.  

Silence Of The Lambs. 

Last week we spent a few days in Bristol.  I went on a self guided walking tour of Banksy artwork.  I now have 2 strong opinions about Banksy that I didn't have before. 

1. His early stuff is mostly rubbish.  Very little artistic merit. 

2. His reputation has ruined Bristol.  Some people will say Bristol has "a vibrant street art culture".  I say its full of inane graffiti that makes the town look derelict.  For every piece of worthwhile art there are hundreds of terrible scrawlings and tags.  

I would recommend a visit to Bristol Museum and Art Gallery to view Grayson Perry's art club.  This includes a Banksy projected onto a wall using the original stencils.  

5 minutes ago, Phil Silvers said:

Because  you would ask for a double gin and tonic for one drink, even a baby would know this 

It's simply how English works, 

I am pretty sure that you can't begin a sentence with "because".  Even a baby would know this.  

33 minutes ago, Phil Silvers said:

2 fish and chips is 2 pieces of fish with chips. Fish and chips twice is as it sounds. 

Exactly.  

But if I asked a pub for 2 gin and tonic it is obvious that I mean 2 drinks. 

Why the difference?  

I think there should be something that financially burdens holiday home owners and puts that money into the local community.  Many Cornish villages are effectively ghost towns in the winter. Locals cannot afford to buy house because they are competing with people working in London on far higher salaries.

Some age old Star Trek questions -  

1. Why does the artificial gravity rarely fail? Even on dead ships it seemingly always functions. 

2. Shouldn't the holo-deck be banned? It malfunctions so often. 

3. Why have lifts when you transport around the ship?  

4. When all weapons are down, wouldn't transporting an angry tiger onto the bridge of an enemy ship be a decent option?  

My pet hates are any episode where the plot revolves around "parallel universe", "holo-deck malfunction" or "time-travel".   

11 hours ago, Genie said:

They must take that much every hour just for gas. They’ll surely have that lying around.

The issue isn't that they don't have the wealth to pay. The issue is that they must pay in US dollars. Sanctions mean many of their normal sources are no longer available.  The ruble has also plunged in value.  Anyone willing to sell them US dollars will be asking for inflated prices and will not want payment in rubles.  

Russia needs to find  countries who will act as middle men who will acquire sanctioned goods on their behalf.  But what will they want in payment?  A dozen air superiority fighters?  Gas and oil?  Gold?  Logging rights to Ukrainian forests?  

Whatever it is - its going to cost Russia. 

2 hours ago, Wainy316 said:

Are there any situations where an out of court settlement is viewed as anything other than an admission of guilt?

Probably not.  But many people settle because its cheaper than paying lawyers to win the case.  If the other party has no assets you can't even get your costs paid.  

The Ukraine military cannot win this battle.  But they can make the occupation untenable and win the war. 

The fall of Kyiv will be the end of a chapter.  The next chapter will be sanctions plus continuing resistance making it in Russia's interest to withdraw and instal a puppet government.  

I know how difficult it is @El Zenbut try to stop thinking about you situation. Stop mulling it over.  

If you had a broken leg you wouldn't try to run a marathon.  The same applies with a broken mind.  Don't try to sort out your future when your mind isn't well enough.  

1 hour ago, El Zen said:

Had a decent night’s sleep, but woke up to an overwhelming feeling of hopelessnes and dread. 

That's depression.  Seek medical help.  

Depression is a medical condition.  It's no different to breaking a leg or catching flu.  The solution is the same.  Rest the injured part.  Seek medical help.  Wait for the treatment to take effect.  

Wishing you all the best.  

2 minutes ago, El Zen said:

I’ve managed one meal, played with my son for a bit and read to him from Oliver Twist. Still worried about sleep. Not sure I’ll be getting much.

As long as you are not driving or using machinery don’t worry about a lack of sleep.  Go to bed at the same time. Get up at the same time even if you are absolutely knackered. Try not to nap during the day. Don't lie awake thinking. If you can't sleep get up and do something quiet but boring for 30 minutes and then try again.  

If you do this every day (and I mean every day) your sleep pattern should normalise.  

I have a great boring task that helps me. Lie in bed with no expectation of sleeping.  Turn on a podcast or audiobook.   Listen for someone saying a word beginning with A.  Then a word beginning with B.  Then C etc. If you drop off, even for 1 minute you must go back to A. 

It gives your brain an activity to prevent it mulling over unwelcome thoughts.  

On 07/03/2022 at 19:53, Sid4ever said:

How do shepherds stocktake flocks of sheep without counting them?

Border Collies with calculators. 

5 hours ago, El Zen said:

For reasons explained in detail elsewhere, I’m in a place mentally I have never been before. Everything is completely dark. I haven’t slept a wink since monday morning and haven’t had a bite to eat since last night. My pain won’t let me sleep and I’m starving myself to numb the pain. I cant’t smile, I can’t laugh, I haven’t been able to listen to a podcast or watch TV to distract myself, and have had to call in sick from work. I’m going to my GP on Thursday and will ask him for extended sick leave. Probably weeks. I feel completely and totally depressed. 

I have suffered from depression for many years.  If you have any questions or would just like to talk - post on here or send a private message if it's easier.  

14 minutes ago, Jareth said:

 Are we to assume Putin is sticking to 'some' rules?

In my opinion.......

The Russian Armed forces are being portrayed as inept by the Western Media.  I don't think this is the case.  I think their initial plan was based upon a misapprehension that the local population would welcome them or (at least) accept then.  Therefore they initially tried to do as little collateral damage as possible.  Now they have realised the true position they have changed to their tried and trusted tactics.  Surround, bombard and demoralise.  I have no doubt that the Russian armed forces will take Ukraine. 

But I sincerely doubt it will be a tenable occupation.  Supply lines are notoriously vulnerable to "resistance" attacks.  Even Russian Transport planes and helicopters can expect to be shot down by Western supplied arms. 

I have just found myself blocked from following @mod_russia on Twitter.  

Would someone mind popping to my house and opening the front door for me.  You might want to have a look at the church spire whilst you're here.  

18 minutes ago, sne said:

Was part of out civil defense during the cold war that most people in the cities should have access to bomb shelters. 

Hell no. 

Formal govermnent bunkers were mainly for essential workers, essential functions and military.  The majority of the general population would be expected to seek shelter in informal shelters such as basements, underground railways or even their own home.  Priority 1 was to rehouse people living in bungalows and high rise flats.  

One of the main planning difficulties was stopping urban residents flooding rural areas which they considered safe.  Those areas just didn't have the infrastructure to deal with the influx of people.  The main aim was to keep life as normal as possible until the last few days.  COVID lockdown 1 was exactly the conditions I remember being imposed in a time of likely nuclear war.  But it would have been an even more severe lockdown.  Food rationing..... motorways closed to everyone except the military.....curfews......mass prison releases....etc.